Team Scotland's Export Promotion Support: evaluation

11. Conclusions

11.1 The evaluation shows that Scotland's approach to export support has a positive impact on export sales. This was not only born out in terms of additionality of the support, but also wider business benefits such as product and process development and job creation. The evaluation identified high levels of satisfaction with the support offered form the perspective of business, as well as delivery practitioners, the majority of which felt satisfied with the current level and targeting of support. This is not to say however that there weren't reservations across the ecosystem.

11.2 It is worth noting that the evaluation period covered considers data and projects which would have commenced prior to the policy change outlined in ATN. As such, there are lags which are evident in this analysis. There are clear implementation lags, lags in firms adjusting their operations to achieve exports, and then lags in the gathering and analysis of data. So, it is crucial to recognise that the export sales achieved to date will likely understate what will eventually be achieved. Estimates of anticipated sales back this up.

11.3 Moreover, this evaluation covered a period of significant economic headwinds which impacted global trade volumes and performance including the UKs exit from the EU and the Covid-19 pandemic. Both beneficiary and non-beneficiary companies reported experiencing difficulties and challenges to exporting as a result of these events, nevertheless firms were still able to see benefits materialise as a result of the support. Estimates of the additionality of support on export sales were provided across the research methods. Beneficiary (self-reported additionality) analysis showed that export sales grew by £1.6 billion over the evaluation period as a result of the support, while econometric analysis using the non-beneficiary sample as a comparison group showed that export sales grew by 140% as a result of the support provided.

11.4 Despite these positive outcomes, a large proportion of the surveyed companies receiving export support, in actual fact were not active exporters (40% had not exported in the 12 months prior to the survey being conducted), and nearly three quarters had never exported. While caution is required around the subjective assessments of respondents, these results require careful consideration and potential changes to the targeting of firms to support.

11.5 The evaluation identified a number of factors that contribute to the effectiveness of public sector support. These include the quality of the support, the targeting of support to businesses that are most likely to benefit from it, and the coordination of support between different government agencies. Areas where public sector support could be improved include providing more support to businesses that are exporting to high growth markets and providing more support to businesses to develop their export marketing capabilities. Overall, the evaluation found that public sector support is an effective way to support export growth in Scotland.