Tobacco use among adolescents in Scotland: profile and trends

The report presents analysis of trends and associations for smoking amongst 13 and 15 year old pupils between 1990 and 2013. Smoking is at its lowest level since the survey began.


6. PREDICTORS OF SMOKING

Logistic regression is used to predict an outcome using several predictor variables. In this case, it was used to predict factors which influence the likelihood of a 15 year old child being a regular smoker. The potential factors included in each of the logistic regressions were those analysed earlier in this report in Chapters 4 and 5. The factors included are detailed in Figure 6.1.

Figure 6.1 - Factors included in each logistic regression

Family Friends Society Geography Health and Mental Health Inequalities Other
Family status What they do in their free time Attended sports groups etc. Rurality WEMWBS score Free school meals Year
Parental knowledge Number of close friends Pressured by school work SDQ score Self-reported wealth
Friend's ages Post-school expectat-ionsl Gender
Evenings with friends Like school SIMD
Excluded
Truanting

The model identified several factors that were associated with regular smoking. Figure 6.2 summarises these results.[40]

Despite clear evidence of a link between deprivation and smoking, SIMD was not a significant predictor of smoking, while free school meal entitlement and how well off the child thought their family is were only weak predictors. However, as with gender, many of these factors are interdependent, such as what the child expects to do after school and if they have been excluded. Thus, these results do not necessarily mean that deprivation is not an important factor in smoking, but that in terms of these results, other factors are more strongly associated with being a regular smoker. As before, it is important to bear in mind that these are potentially complex associations with, rather than direct causes, of smoking.

Figure 6.2 - Key drivers of smoking among 15 year olds

SIGNIFICANT FACTOR?
GENDER YES, SOME
AREA DEPRIVATION NO
FREE SCHOOL MEALS YES, SOME
SELF-REPORTED WEALTH YES, SOME
SDQ SCORE YES, SOME
WEMWBS SCORE NO
URBAN/RURAL CLASSIFICATION YES, SOME
ATTENDED SPORTS GROUP NO
ATTENDED OTHER GROUPS NO
EXPECT TO DO AFTER LEAVING SCHOOL YES, A LOT
PRESSURED BY SCHOOL WORK NO
TRUANTING YES, A LOT
EXCLUDED YES, A LOT
LIKING SCHOOL NO
NUMBER OF CLOSE FRIENDS NO
PLAYING SPORTS AT LEAST WEEKLY YES, A LOT
HANGING AROUND ON THE STREET AT LEAST WEEKLY YES, A LOT
GOING TO A FRIEND'S HOUSE AT LEAST WEEKLY YES, SOME
GOING TO CONCERTS AT LEAST WEEKLY YES, SOME
GOING TO CINEMA AT LEAST WEEKLY YES, SOME
WATCHING FILMS OR DVDS AT LEAST WEEKLY YES, SOME
PLAYING COMPUTER GAMES AT LEAST WEEKLY YES, SOME
OTHER ACTIVITIES NO
EVENINGS SPENT WITH FRIENDS YES, A LOT
AGE OF FRIENDS YES, A LOT
FAMILY STATUS YES, SOME
MOTHER'S KNOWLEDGE OF ACTIVITIES YES, SOME
FATHER'S KNOWLEDGE OF ACTIVITIES YES, A LOT

Contact

Email: Fiona MacDonald

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