Total income from farming: estimates for Scotland 2014-2016

4. Outputs from Scottish farms

The value of outputs from Scottish farms fell from £3.03 billion in 2014 to £2.88 billion in 2015, and dropped further to an estimated £2.87 billion in 2016. Changes in outputs will be due to both changes in volume and in prices.

Chart 4: Output, 2015 and 2016 source: Table 1

The total output of livestock (finished and store, including coupled support) was estimated as £1.06 billion in 2015 (37 per cent of output; down £32 million, three per cent or four per cent real terms) and £1.10 billion in 2016 (38 per cent of output; up £41 million, four per cent or three per cent real terms).

Within this the value of finished cattle rose to £650 million in 2015 (23 per cent of output; up £3 million, up 0.5 per cent or down one per cent real terms) but is estimated to have fallen to £642 million in 2016 (22 per cent of output; down £8 million, one per cent or two per cent real terms). Both years saw a fairly steady volume, with a steady price in 2015 followed by a dip in price in 2016. Store cattle output was estimated at £50 million in 2015 and £54 million in 2016, the increase in 2016 being due to an increase in export numbers outweighing a fall in price.

Finished sheep and lamb output was estimated as £173 million in 2015 (six per cent of output; down £9 million, five per cent or seven per cent real terms) and £195 million in 2016 (seven per cent of output; up £23 million, 13 per cent and 13 per cent real terms). Changes are due to reductions in numbers and prices in 2015 followed by increases in both in 2016. Store sheep and lamb output was estimated at £13.0 million in 2015 and £14.3 million in 2016, an increase in both years.

Output of pigs was estimated as £85 million in 2015 (three per cent of output; down £7 million, eight per cent or nine per cent real terms) and £89 million in 2016 (three per cent of output; up £3 million, four per cent or three per cent real terms). Production increased in both years, but while prices fell in both, though more strongly in 2015.

Poultry output had been falling but recovered in 2016. It was estimated as £65 million in 2015 (two per cent of output; down £23 million, 26 per cent or 28 per cent real terms) and £84 million in 2016 (three per cent of output; up £19 million, 29 per cent or 29 per cent real terms). 2015 saw a fall in price and a large fall in broiler numbers, but numbers increased in 2016, outweighing the further drop in price.

Amongst livestock products, the value of milk fell sharply to £378 million in 2015 (13 per cent of output; down £76 million, 17 per cent or 18 per cent real terms) and further to an estimated £328 million in 2016 (11 per cent of output; down £50 million, 13 per cent or 14 per cent real terms). The average price for a litre fell from 31.5p to 24.1p between 2014 and 2015, though the volume increased eight per cent to 1.6 billion litres. The average price fell further in 2016 to 22.0p per litre, the lowest since 2007, accompanied by a five per cent reduction in volume to 1.5 billion litres.

The value of eggs for food was estimated at £92 million in 2015 (three per cent of output; up £10 million, 12 per cent or 11 per cent real terms) and £83 million in 2016 (three per cent of output; down £8 million, nine per cent or ten per cent real terms). There were increases in production in both years with reasonably steady prices in 2015, but a 15 per cent fall in price in 2016.

Wool accounted for £4.6 million in both 2015 and 2016, with a drop in price in 2015 followed by steady prices and quantity in 2016.

Other livestock and livestock products includes around £10 million for exported hatching eggs.

Cereals were valued at £334 million in 2015 (12 per cent of output; down £44 million, 12 per cent or 13 per cent real terms) and £308 million in 2016 (11 per cent of output; down £27 million, eight per cent or nine per cent real terms). About 60 per cent of this value comes from barley, with barley showing a 14 per cent reduction in value in 2015, and a further nine per cent in 2016, due to a fall in production. The price fell in 2015 but recovered due to the weakening of the pound in 2016. The value of wheat fell in both years, down to £104 million in 2016, but oats saw a 42 per cent increase in 2016 to £23 million.

Amongst other crops, potatoes were valued at £171 million in 2015 (six per cent of output; down £15 million, eight per cent or ten per cent real terms) and an estimated £209 million in 2016 (seven per cent of output; up £38 million, 23 per cent or 22 per cent real terms). The fall in 2015 was due to a fall in ware prices and production, whereas in 2016 both saw increases.

Within horticulture, vegetable production accounted for an estimated £109 million in 2015 (four per cent of output; down £3 million, three per cent or five per cent real terms) and £123 million in 2016 (four per cent of output; up £14 million, 13 per cent or 12 per cent in real terms). Fruit production accounted for an estimated

Chart 5: Value of outputs, in real terms, 2006 to 2016 source: Table 3

£140 million in 2015 (five per cent of output; up £51 million, 57 per cent or 55 per cent real terms) and £115 million in 2016 (four per cent of output; down £25 million, 18 per cent or 18 per cent real terms). Fruit volume and prices both did very well in 2015, and although they dropped back in 2016, the trend is still strongly upwards.

Capital formation, which in financial terms recognises the value of putting livestock into the breeding herd rather than slaughter, was estimated at £180 million in 2015 (six per cent of output; down £14 million, seven per cent or nine per cent real terms) and £181 million in 2016 (six per cent of output; up £0.2 million, or no change in percentage terms).

Other agricultural work accounted for £86 million in 2015 and was estimated at £84 million in 2016 (three per cent of output in both years), with income from non-agricultural activity ^[2] estimated at £246 million in 2015 (nine per cent of output; up £2 million, up one per cent or down one per cent real terms) and £253 million in 2016 (nine per cent of output; up £7 million, three per cent or two per cent real terms).