Just Transition: draft plan for transport in Scotland

1. Introduction

Since the publication of our National Transport Strategy^[1] in 2020, the Scottish Government has taken important action to deliver on the priorities it sets out – of reducing inequalities, taking climate action, helping to deliver inclusive economic growth, and improving health and wellbeing. This work has been backed up by significant investment, including over £2 billion per year for our public transport system.

As a result, our country has made further significant progress. For example, we have continued to improve our active travel infrastructure – to the point where Scotland now has 450 miles of new or improved walking or cycling paths, compared to 2010. We have supported the acquisition of 800 zero emission buses, while also expanding our National Concessionary Travel schemes so that people under the age of 22 now have access to free bus travel.

In our rail sector, 76% of passenger journeys in Scotland are now electrified, ScotRail has been brought into public ownership, and 6 new stations have opened up across Scotland since 2020. Two years ahead of schedule, our country has reached a major milestone in its journey to sustainable transportation, with over 6,000 public electric vehicle charge points now in place across Scotland. In addition, we have taken further action to prepare our transport system for the current and future impacts of climate change – not least through the publication of Transport Scotland’s Approach to Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience^[2].

Just Transition Plan for Transport

In all of this, we have focussed on ensuring a transition to a net zero transport system that is fair and just.

In 2019, Scotland became the first country in the world to establish a Just Transition Commission – a group of experts tasked with providing independent advice on our journey to net zero. In its March 2021 report, the Commission called for the creation of Just Transition Plans for sectors with the highest emissions, such as transport. As part of our response, the Scottish Government created a national framework which is designed to guide the development of these Plans. It is centred around four themes: jobs, skills and economic opportunities; people and equity; communities and place; and environment, adaptation and biodiversity.

This draft Just Transition Plan for Transport is based on that framework, and has been informed by the Commission’s ongoing advice. It is fully aligned with the priorities of our National Transport Strategy, and sits alongside the other Just Transition Plans for specific sectors, sites or regions that we are developing, or which have already been published.^[3]

The draft Plan is not intended to set out new, standalone policies. Instead, it is designed to make the connections between existing and developing policy, and serve as a guide for people across our society, to understand what a just transition means for transport. We hope it will help to establish a shared understanding of the challenges and opportunities of the transport transition, while empowering people to play their part, and access the support that they need.

This draft plan focuses on the transport sub sectors which are the most pressing areas for significant decarbonisation action in the near term, predominantly road sectors. A just transition is also important in other economic sectors with heavy reliance on vehicles – for example, fishing vessels, rural machinery, and other non-road mobile machinery. We are therefore developing our approach to these sub-sectors as part of our commitment to just transition planning across other key sectors.

We are now seeking views on the draft Plan as part of a public consultation. Throughout the document, we have included specific questions, a full list of which are set out at Section 9. The Plan will be developed further based on the responses we receive, and your responses will help to inform just transition planning for the sector.

Finalising the Just Transition Plan will not, however, mark the end of the planning process. Between now and 2045, there will be further versions of the plan – reflecting the progress our country has made and the key issues that still need to be addressed.

What is a Just Transition?

The Scottish Government defines a just transition as both the outcome – a fairer, greener future for all – and the process of delivering net zero – in partnership with those affected. It describes how we intend to get to a net zero and climate resilient economy, in a way that delivers fairness and tackles inequality and injustice.

Fundamentally, a just transition is about all of us working together to take advantage of opportunities for positive change, at the same time as we ensure that negative impacts are reduced to a minimum. It is not a ‘magic wand’ that can allow us to continue to live our lives the way we do now and still achieve our goals. Nor can it be achieved by government alone. Undoubtedly, the Scottish Government and the UK Government have key roles to play, but this is a mission that will need ongoing input, collaboration, and action from industry, and people across our society.

Transport in Scotland

A just transition in transport is central to our country’s wider just transition.

As the northernmost nation of an island – with a geography comprising a mainland and 93 inhabited islands – transport is fundamental to Scotland’s connectivity. It plays an essential role in how we access employment and vital services, and in the functioning of our economy – ensuring the movement of goods and services to homes and businesses in this country and beyond.

The transport sector itself is broad and complex, encompassing different modes of travel, on land, water, and in the air – as well as the different sub-sectors that support them. It accounts for 144,000 jobs^[4] in Scotland and adds £8.3 billion in value^[5] to our economy.

Transport also, however, accounts for the largest proportion (32%) of Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions. This reflects the fact that, while important steps have been taken towards decarbonisation, most forms of transport in this country remain largely dependent on fossil fuels.

Transition in Transport

Achieving net zero will therefore require a transformation in our transport system, and the ways in which we all travel. There will need to be a major shift in the vehicles and fuels we use, in our transport and energy infrastructure, and in the transport skills that people learn and deploy.

Scotland has set ambitious targets for delivering this transformation, across the different parts of the sector. This includes a commitment to a 20% reduction in car use by 2030; that 30% of Scottish Government-owned ferries should be low emission by 2032; and that scheduled flights between Scottish Airports should be decarbonised by 2040.

However, the basis on which some of our other targets were set has since been undermined by a range of external events – from the Covid pandemic, to the impact of the invasion of Ukraine, to the cost of living crisis, alongside specific policy and budget decisions made at UK Government level. As a result, some of these targets are now being reviewed, in line with our development of Scotland’s next Climate Change Plan.

Nonetheless, in broad terms, we still know the rough timeframe and approximate order in which different parts of the sector will need to change. This is illustrated by Figure 1 below.

While these changes are taking place, our transport system also needs to continue adapting and building resilience to the effects of climate change which cannot now be avoided. Transport is, after all, particularly vulnerable to the more serious, weather-related effects of the climate crisis – such as flooding, storms or heatwaves.

Costs and Benefits

Inevitably, the scale of transformation required for the transition will create significant costs. Some of these are unavoidable – for example, the investment required for new vehicles and new infrastructure – and so the key challenge is to meet them in a way which is fair and just. At the same time, we also need to address or mitigate other impacts that could potentially result from the transition – from damage to our natural environment, to the phasing out of certain jobs.

In doing this, the Scottish Government is committed to an approach that recognises the inequities that people already face when it comes to transport. This includes the challenges facing those in smaller towns, rural communities and islands, those with additional mobility needs, and those on lower incomes. We understand that many within these groups will often have fewer options to change their travel behaviours, so we are determined that they will not be disadvantaged by the changes that need to be made.

Alongside costs, however, it is also important to recognise the significant benefits that the transition in transport offers. As this draft Plan sets out, the changes required give us an unprecedented opportunity to build a more accessible, inclusive and fairer public transport system. Greater active travel, and a reduction in pollution, will improve people’s health and wellbeing, and enhance the places where we live. Adapting and building resilience in our transport system will reduce disruption and associated costs for people and businesses. Within the transport sector itself, the changes required are an opportunity to build a more diverse and inclusive workforce. Crucially, the transition also offers important economic opportunities for Scotland, which could deliver benefits in terms jobs, trade, and growth.

Plan development

This draft Plan sets out our initial assessment of how Scotland can meet these costs and seize these benefits, in a way which is fair and just. In line with our planning framework, it has been developed through a process of engagement and co-design^[8]

Co-design is based on the idea that the people, communities or businesses affected by complex problems should be involved in the process of addressing them, and should be empowered to make decisions and design solutions. It begins with an invitation for a very wide range of views, the broad insights from which are then used to guide the development of policies and plans.

The development of this draft Plan has therefore involved extensive engagement with communities across Scotland, as well as the public sector, businesses, workers and trade unions. In total, over 1,000 people attended (in-person or online) a programme of over 100 events that we used for engagement throughout 2023^[9]. These events covered a range of just transition themes including transport, with at least 15 focussing exclusively on transport.

Most of the conversations explored themes and questions set out in our Transport Discussion Paper, published in June 2023. We wanted to reach people who might not have been involved in these kinds of discussions before, or who needed extra support to understand and contribute to engagement. For some discussions, we therefore partnered with representative organisations that had well-established and trusted relationships with groups who have particularly relevant lived experience – such as people from lower income households and single parents.

At the transport-specific discussions, we asked people to imagine what a fair transition to net zero transport could look like for their household or community, and to understand what barriers they currently face when it comes to transport, or changing their transport behaviours.

This engagement built on previous work to start a national discussion about the outcomes that should guide a just transition, hold us accountable, and help us measure progress. Our development of the draft Plan also took into account the valuable independent work of the Just Transition Commission, as well as a range of other research.

What you said

Government should increase community influence over choices, rethinking who the transport system is made for and removing barriers for people facing multiple challenges. Quote: “Need to move towards helping people have a good life by supporting family life, cultural enrichment, community connection... [by shifting the purpose of the public transport system].” – Member, Elderly People’s Organisation, Engagement Workshop, Scottish Government

Traditional public transport models have never been fit for purpose in rural and island areas: access to healthcare, social isolation, missed economic opportunities. Quote: “At times, I have not been able to get jobs because of it... Some services do not run on Sundays which means you have to get taxis, which is expensive.” – Young Person, Children in Scotland Highlands Workshop

Government should define a rural equivalent of “20-minute neighbourhoods” so that people can access more locally: Quote: “If you did not live on public transport route, there was a trial bus years ago for workers, you phoned up night before to book, and the bus would plot a route and deliver to Kirkwall for work. This helped people with mobility issues – funding was pulled as there was not enough people using. It was not advertised enough and there was no funding to promote. The service also allowed for the driver to help those with mobility issues on/off bus.” – Orkney Climate Change Workshop Participant, Scottish Government

Industry recognition of the need to work collaboratively with public sector on topics like workforce planning and skills provision, and support businesses who are already adopting sustainable practices. Quote: “Need more e-cargo bike delivery and support for business[es] which choose this option.” – Participant, Engagement Workshop, Scottish Government

Overall, our engagement highlighted the importance of involving people and communities in the process of making the transport sector fairer, and of tackling the challenges faced by workers and businesses as we accelerate the transition. We have also heard that the final Plan should: 

• feel like it was created for everyone, not just people or businesses directly involved in the transport sector; and
• set out a shared vision for Scotland but guide actions that work at a local level.

The full range of views that we heard has shaped the development of our Vision for Transport by 2045, and the draft Plan that follows.