UK Covid-19 Inquiry - Module 1 report: Scottish Government response

9. Red teams

Recommendation Nine – Regular use of red teams

Chair’s recommendation:

The governments of the UK, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland should each introduce the use of red teams in the Civil Service to scrutinise and challenge the principles, evidence, policies and advice relating to preparedness for and resilience to whole-system civil emergencies. The red teams should be brought in from outside of government and the Civil Service.

Scottish Government response:

The Scottish Government accepts the principle of introducing external scrutiny from outside the Civil Service to improve its preparedness for, and resilience to, whole-system civil emergencies. We recognise that it is important for our advice and decision-making to be challenged.

We welcome the prospect of greater scrutiny in our preparations for whole-system civil emergencies, and we recognise the need for structures that will help us avoid ‘groupthink.’ We believe that there is value in external scrutiny which can identify lessons and provide insights that are transferrable and applicable across a range of our work. For this reason, we think it would be impractical to only use one specific form of scrutiny (red teams) and therefore we have considered this in conjunction with options to achieve the overarching aim of this recommendation.

As referenced in our response to Recommendation Three, In August 2021, we established the Standing Committee on Pandemic Preparedness (SCoPP) as an independent advisory group to advise us on the future risks from pandemics. SCoPP published an interim report of recommendations in August 2022, which recommended that a Centre of Pandemic Preparedness in Scotland should be established. The UK Covid-19 Inquiry, in its Module 1 report, recommended that this Centre should be part of a UK-wide endeavour. SCoPP’s final report, published 26 November 2024, reflected further consideration of this approach and recommended that a Scottish Pandemic Sciences Partnership should be established – to create a dynamic network which integrates and connects the diverse expertise essential for Scotland’s preparedness and response to pandemic threats and to build relationships in readiness for future events. SCoPP further recommends that the Partnership should build and maintain connections with UK and international networks, including the UK Pandemic Sciences Network. The Scottish Government has accepted the recommendations in SCoPP’s final report in principle and will work closely with partners to deliver those.

External challenge is already a key step within the methodology we use to develop the Scottish Risk Assessment (SRA). Since 2018, we have produced a Scottish Risk Assessment every two to three years, designed to supplement the National Security Risk Assessment with Scotland specific information and analysis where this adds value. SRAs are produced in collaboration with a wide range of partners from within the Scottish Government and across the wider resilience community. While the Scottish Government policy teams or national agencies lead on the development and assessment of individual scenarios which fall within their remit, these individual risk assessments go through a process of challenge, such as the series of workshops held for SRA 2023 that invited external academics and scientists along with resilience partners to review the assessments and provide additional guidance.

Likewise, our work on understanding longer term trends that might affect Scotland over a 10-to-20-year timeframe has involved over 100 stakeholder interviews and several sense-making workshops with a mix of external and internal stakeholders. Plans for a final workshop early next year are under development, with outputs expected in spring 2025.

We are always looking to improve and will be reviewing how our risk assessment work can have greater scrutiny and challenge as part of our overall commitment to considering a better approach to risk assessment, as outlined under Recommendation Three.

We will also continue where possible to draw on UK-wide capabilities and systems such as training, red teaming and expert advisory groups, and seek to coordinate this external challenge function across the UK where possible. By July 2025 we will have scoped the potential of additional ‘red teaming’, and wider peer review of core plans by experts and non-experts, within the Scottish context. This will ensure that our planning process benefits from fresh perspectives, ask difficult questions and challenge assumptions in relation to devolved aspects of our whole-system civil emergency planning.

Incorporating external scrutiny into our work and increasing the levels of awareness around external scrutiny in government, should lead to an overall significant improvement in the policies and practices relating to preparedness for and resilience to whole-system civil emergencies.

Accountable Officer:

The Director General for Strategy and External Affairs, working with the Civil Contingencies Division within the Scottish Government will be accountable for the implementation of the Scottish elements of this recommendation.

Implementation timescales:

• By July 2025, we will have scoped the potential use of further ‘red teaming’ and external scrutiny to support the development and implementation of our plans, processes and procedures.