UK Covid-19 Inquiry - Module 1 report: Scottish Government response

3. Risk assessment

Recommendation Three – A better approach to risk assessment

Chair’s recommendation:

The UK Government and devolved governments should work together on developing a new approach to risk assessment that moves away from a reliance on single reasonable worst-case scenarios towards an approach that:

• Assesses a wider range of scenarios representative of the different risks and the range of each kind of risk
• Considers the prevention and mitigation of an emergency in addition to dealing with its consequences
• Provides a full analysis of the ways in which the combined impacts of different risks may complicate or worsen an emergency
• Assesses long-term risks in addition to short-term risks and considers how they may interact with each other
• Undertakes an assessment of the impact of each risk on vulnerable people; and
• Takes into account the capacity and capabilities of the UK.

In doing so, the UK Government and devolved governments should perform risk assessments that reflect the circumstances and characteristics particular to England, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole.

Scottish Government response:

The Scottish Government accepts this recommendation. We will continue to work with the UK Government and devolved governments on improving the approach to risk assessment across the UK. We are reviewing how we can optimise use of the UK-wide risk assessment and improve our process for taking into account Scotland’s circumstances and characteristics, including the impact that risks may have on the most vulnerable in our society.

We support all four nations of the UK working together to ensure a joined up and continually improving risk assessment approach.

We have well-established and positive working relationships with the UK Government and devolved governments and acknowledge the ongoing development of the UK-wide risk assessment, the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA), led by the UK Government. We have seen substantial steps taken to address several of the methodological points suggested in this recommendation. For example, the NSRA 2022 (and the dynamic NSRAs from 2023 onwards) include multiple risk scenarios to assess risks where different planning and/or response may be required; the introduction of the ‘Linked Risks’ section in first cycle of the dynamic NSRA which identifies risks which cause or increase the likelihood of another risk manifesting; and the UK Government development of a Chronic Risks Assessment (shared with the Scottish Government) to identify and assess longer term challenges facing the UK and designed to be used in conjunction with the NSRA.

We are committed to being involved in the ongoing review and development of the NSRA methodology as was the case in our contribution to the 2020-2021 House of Lords Risk Assessment Inquiry and the Royal Academy of Engineering review of the NSRA methodology, commissioned by the UK Government in January 2021.

We consider the NSRA to be a comprehensive, evidence-led assessment of potential risks to inform planning and preparation within Scotland. We are reviewing how we can optimise use of the NSRA (and supporting tools), as well as improve our process for taking into account Scotland’s circumstances and characteristics, through the establishment of a short life working group comprising internal and external stakeholders.

Since 2018, we have produced a Scottish Risk Assessment (SRA) every two to three years, designed to supplement the NSRA with Scotland specific information and analysis where this adds value.

SRAs have been produced in collaboration with a wide range of partners from within the Scottish Government and across the wider resilience community. The Scottish Government policy teams or national agencies lead on the development and assessment of individual scenarios which fall within their remit, as they have the expertise and links to subject-matter experts. They develop appropriate scenarios and assess the risk using the SRA methodology. Consideration is given by the SRA risk authors to the potential impacts on vulnerable people and communities the risks may have, should they occur. These individual risk assessments then go through a process of challenge, such as the series of challenge workshops held for SRA 2023.

We acknowledge there is always room for improvement. Having produced three iterations of the SRA, the short life working group (as referenced earlier) will include examining alternatives to the approach the Scottish Government takes to assessing civil contingencies risks.

Our improvement work will also explore how the Scottish Government work to understand longer term trends that might affect Scotland over a 10-to-20-year timeframe can be incorporated into civil contingencies risk assessment, as detailed further in our response to Recommendation Nine.

To assist us with our improvements, we have hosted a UK Research and Innovation policy fellowship undertaking a critical appraisal of how risk assessment information is used in informing civil contingencies activities across the Scottish Government. Initial findings will be available in early 2025.

We have also already sought independent advice regarding pandemic risks. In August 2021, we established the Standing Committee on Pandemic Preparedness (SCoPP) as an independent advisory group to advise us on the future risks from pandemics. SCoPP published its interim report in 2022 and its final report in November 2024, which recommended actions to identify and secure the effective use of data for pandemics, including consideration of integration with UK data initiatives. The Scottish Government has accepted the SCoPP recommendations in principle and is working with partners to deliver those.

We aim to complete our review and implementation of improvements in incremental stages with overall completion by the end of 2025.

Accountable Officer:

The Director General for Strategy and External Affairs, working with the Civil Contingencies Division within the Scottish Government, will be accountable for the implementation of the Scottish elements of this recommendation.

Implementation timescales:

• Our review and implementation of any improvements will be completed by the end of 2025.