UK immigration policy after leaving the EU: impacts on Scotland's economy, population and society

References

1 Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), EEA Migration in the UK: Final Report, September 2018, available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migration-advisory-committee-mac-report-eea-migration

2 In particular, we draw on data from a large qualitative study: 'Experiences of Social Security and Prospects for Long Term Settlement in Scotland amongst Migrants from Central Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union'. This work was supported by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (November 2013-November 2018, ESRC ref: ES/J007374/1). The underlying data is available from the UK data archive DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN852584. For further information on the project see www.glasgow.ac.uk/research/az/gramnet/research/ssamis.

3 The net migration rate has been calculated as follows: NMR_{t, t+1} = NM_{t, t+1}/P_t * 1000, where NM_{t, t+1} is the difference between in- and out migration between t and t+1 and P_t is the risk population at t. The rate has thus been calculated using beginning-of-period population.

4 See, for example, Sime, D., Kakela, E., Corson, S., Tyrrell, N., McMellon, C., Kelly, C., & Moskal, M. (2017) Eastern European Young People in Brexit Britain: Racism, anxiety and a precarious future, available at http://www.migrantyouth.org/files/2016/08/Eastern-European-Young-People-in-Brexit-Britain.pdf

5 Scottish Government, Tourism in Scotland: the Economic Contribution of the Sector, April 2018, available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/tourism-scotland-economic-contribution-sector/pages/2/

6 NRS Local Area Migration data, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/migration/migration-statistics/local-area-migration]

7 For an explanation of the National Population Projections methodology, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/methodologies/nationalpopulationprojectionsqmi

8 Migration Observatory 2018, based on Home Office data. https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/non-european-migration-to-the-uk-family-unification-dependents/#kp1

9 Sime et al (2017) (supra note xxx)

10 Giannelli, G. C., Mangiavacchi, L., & Piccoli, L. (2012). GDP and the value of family caretaking: how much does Europe care?. Applied Economics, 44(16), 2111-2131.

11 Scottish Care, Care Home Workforce Data Report 2017, see: http://www.scottishcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Care-Home-Workforce-Data-2017.pdf

12 Home Office, UK Immigration Rules, see: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/immigration-rules/immigration-rules-appendix-j-codes-of-practice-for-skilled-work

13 Home Office, The UK's future skills-based immigration system, December 2018, para 23, available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/766465/The-UKs-future-skills-based-immigration-system-print-ready.pdf

14 Van Houtven, C. H., Coe, N. B., & Skira, M. M. (2013). The effect of informal care on work and wages. Journal of health economics, 32(1), 240-252.

15 Pinquart, M., & Sörensen, S. (2003). Differences between caregivers and noncaregivers in psychological health and physical health: a meta-analysis. Psychology and aging, 18(2), 250.

16 SEFARI (Scottish Environment, Food and Agriculture Research Institutes), The Fruits of Their Labour: Seasonal farm workers in Scottish agriculture, available at: https://sefari.scot/research/the-fruits-of-their-labour-seasonal-farm-workers-in-scottish-agriculture

17 See NFU Scotland press release, February 2018: https://www.nfus.org.uk/news/news/nfu-scotlands-seasonal-workers-survey-identifies-labour-shortage-fears

18 MAC, Migrant Seasonal Workers, May 2013, available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/257242/migrant-seasonal-workers.pdf

19 Home Office (2018), para 6.25

20 The figure shows those occupations where there is sufficient information from the ASHE survey to estimate the proportion of female employees in Scotland whose earnings exceed different income thresholds.

21 Data for some local authority areas suppressed due to sample size.

22 Oxford Economics, The Fiscal Impact of Immigration on the UK: A Report for the Migration Advisory Committee, June 2018, available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759376/The_Fiscal_Impact_of_Immigration_on_the_UK.pdf

23 For a list of contributions from each tax to Scottish Government revenue see: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-budget-2019-20/pages/4/ Also note that only 20% of VAT revenues (worth around £6 billion) will accrue to the Scottish Government.

24 See for example: Scottish Government, Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2017-2018, August 2018, available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-2017-18/

25 Scottish Government, Scotland's Economic Strategy, March 2015, available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-economic-strategy/

26 Scottish Government, Enterprise and Skills Review report on Phase 2: Regional Partnerships, June 2017, available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/enterprise-skills-review-report-phase-2/

27 Scottish Government, Ambition – Opportunity – Place: Scotland's Third National Planning Framework, June 2014, available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/national-planning-framework-3/pages/1/

28 The Islands (Scotland) Bill, 2018 'places a duty on the Scottish Ministers to prepare, lay before the Scottish Parliament and publish a “National Islands Plan”. The Plan must set out the main objectives and strategy of the Scottish Ministers in relation to improving outcomes for island communities.' (Scottish Government (2017) Equality Impact Assessment (EQIA) for the Islands (Scotland) Bill. https://www.gov.scot/publications/islands-scotland-bill-equality-impact-assessment/

29 Scottish Government, Scotland's population needs and migration policy: Discussion paper on evidence, policy and powers for the Scottish Parliament. February 2018, available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-population-needs-migration-policy/

30 See for example COSLA, Response to the MAC Call for Evidence on the Review of Migrant Employment in Low-skilled Work, December 2013, available at http://www.migrationscotland.org.uk/key-documents/politicalpapers/scotlands-demographics; and COSLA, Response to the MAC Call for Evidence: EEA-workers in the UK Labour Market, December 2017,available at www.cosla.gov.uk/files/documents/17-12-15_cwb_item_11a__migration_advisory_committee_response_appendix_1.pdf;

31 Scottish Government, The Impacts of Migrants and Migration into Scotland, October 2016, available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/impacts-migrants-migration-scotland/pages/2/

32 Specifically we refer to data from a large ESRC-funded qualitative study: 'Experiences of Social Security and Prospects for Long Term Settlement in Scotland amongst Migrants from Central Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union'. This work was supported by the UK Economic and Social Research Council (November 2013-November 2018, ESRC ref: ES/J007374/1). The underlying data is available from the UK data archive DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN852584. For further information on the project see www.glasgow.ac.uk/research/az/gramnet/research/ssamis.

33 See for example McGhee D., Heath S., Trevena P. (2012). Dignity, Happiness and Being Able to Live a 'Normal Life' in the UK: An Examination of Post-Accession Polish Migrants' Autobiographical Transnational Fields. Social Identities 18(6): 711–727; McGhee D., Heath S., Trevena P. (2013). Competing Obligations and the Maintenance of Physical Co-Presence: The Impact of Migration and Structural Constraints on Post-Accession Polish Families in the UK; Families, Relationships and Society 2(2): 229–245; Ryan L., Sales R. (2011). Family Migration: The Role of Children and Education in Family Decision-Making Strategies of Polish Migrants in London. International Migration 51(2): 90–103.

34 Kay, R. and Trevena, P. (2018) (In)security, family and settlement: migration decisions amongst Central and East European families in Scotland. Central and Eastern European Migration Review, 7(1), pp. 17-33

35 Ryan, L. (2018) Differentiated embedding: Polish migrants in London negotiating belonging over time, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 44:2, 233-251; Piore M. (1979). Birds of Passage: Migrant Labour and Industrial Societies. Cambridge: Cambridge Univer-sity Press.

36 Piętka-Nykaza E., McGhee D. (2016). EU Post-Accession Polish Migrants' Trajectories and Their Settlement Practices in Scotland. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 43(9): 1417–1433

37 Flynn M., Kay R. (2017). Migrants' Experiences of Material and Emotional Security in Rural Scotland: Implications for Longer-Term Settlement. Journal of Rural Studies 52(1): 56–65.

38 Flynn M., Kay R. (2017). Migrants' Experiences of Material and Emotional Security in Rural Scotland: Implications for Longer-Term Settlement. Journal of Rural Studies 52(1): 56–65;

39 Kyambi, S., Kay, R., Boswell, C., Taggart, K. and Porteous, H. (2018) Choices Ahead: Approaches to lower skilled labour migration after Brexit, available at: www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/sites/default/files/pages/choices_ahead_june2018_0.pdf, p. 23; SSAMIS (2016) 'Second Interim Report: Living and Working in Scotland: employment, housing, family and community' available at https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_500297_en.pdf

40 Adapted from Kyambi, S., Kay, R., Boswell, C., Taggart, K. and Porteous, H. (2018) Choices Ahead: Approaches to lower skilled labour migration after Brexit, available at: www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/sites/default/files/pages/choices_ahead_june2018_0.pdf, pp. 22-23.

41 Moskal, M. (2013) Circulating capitals between Poland and Scotland: a transnational perspective on European Labour Mobility, International Migration and Integration, 14: 363-379

42 Thomson, S., Mc Morran, R., Bird, J., Atterton, J., Pate, L., Meador, E., De Lima, P., Milbourne, P. (2018) Farm Workers in Scottish Agriculture: Case Studies in the International Seasonal Migrant Labour Market. https://www.sruc.ac.uk/seasonalworkers, p. v

43 Interview available from the UK Data Service Reshare archive Ref. 10.5255/UKDA-SN-852584 RURAL_69_M26_Bulg_Paskal

44 Thomson, S., Mc Morran, R., Bird, J., Atterton, J., Pate, L., Meador, E., De Lima, P., Milbourne, P. (2018) Farm Workers in Scottish Agriculture: Case Studies in the International Seasonal Migrant Labour Market. https://www.sruc.ac.uk/seasonalworkers, p. v

45 White, A. (2017) Polish Families and Migration since EU Accession, Bristol: Policy Press; Kay, R. and Trevena, P. (2018) (In)security, family and settlement: migration decisions amongst Central and East European families in Scotland. Central and Eastern European Migration Review, 7(1), pp. 17-33

46 Kyambi, S., Kay, R., Boswell, C., Taggart, K. and Porteous, H. (2018) Choices Ahead: Approaches to lower skilled labour migration after Brexit, available at: www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/sites/default/files/pages/choices_ahead_june2018_0.pdf, p. 26

47 Adapted from Kay, R. and Trevena, P. (2018) (In)security, family and settlement: migration decisions amongst Central and East European families in Scotland. Central and Eastern European Migration Review, 7(1), pp. 23-26.

48 Scottish Government (2016) 'The Impacts of Migrants and Migration into Scotland', p. 67, available at www.gov.scot; SSAMIS (2016) 'Second Interim Report: Living and Working in Scotland: employment, housing, family and community' available at https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_500297_en.pdf

49 Kyambi, S., Kay, R., Boswell, C., Taggart, K. and Porteous, H. (2018) Choices Ahead: Approaches to lower skilled labour migration after Brexit, available at: www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/sites/default/files/pages/choices_ahead_june2018_0.pdf

50 Shubin, S and Dickey, H (2013) Integration and mobility of Eastern European migrants in Scotland, Environment and Planning, 45, 2959-2979; Porteous, H. (2017) 'Migrants and Employment in Aberdeenshire', SSAMIS project report available at https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_597454_en.pdf

51 Scottish Government, Draft Budget 2018-19, available at: www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-budget-draft-budget-2018-19/pages/17/

52 Scottish Government, Draft Budget 2018-19, available at: www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-budget-draft-budget-2018-19/pages/13/

53 SSAMIS (2016) 'Second Interim Report: Living and Working in Scotland: employment, housing, family and community' available at https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_500297_en.pdf; COSLA (2013) Response to the MAC Call for Evidence on the Review of Migrant Employment in Low-skilled Work available at http://www.migrationscotland.org.uk/key-documents/politicalpapers/scotlands-demographics

54 SSAMIS (2016) 'Second Interim Report: Living and Working in Scotland: employment, housing, family and community' available at https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_500297_en.pdf; Taggart, K. (2017). Experiences of Welfare within Glasgow's Central and East European (CEE) Community, SSAMIS briefing for Scottish Green Party MSPs,. https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_534217_en.pdf

55 Flynn M., Kay R. (2017). Migrants' Experiences of Material and Emotional Security in Rural Scotland: Implications for Longer-Term Settlement. Journal of Rural Studies 52(1): 56–65; SSAMIS (2016) 'Second Interim Report: Living and Working in Scotland: employment, housing, family and community' available at https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_500297_en.pdf; Porteous, H. (2017) 'Migrants and Language Learning in Aberdeenshire', SSAMIS Project report, available at https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_597469_en.pdf

56 Adapted from COSLA (2013) Response to the MAC Call for Evidence on the Review of Migrant Employment in Low-skilled Work, available at http://www.migrationscotland.org.uk/key-documents/politicalpapers/scotlands-demographics

57 SSAMIS (2016) 'Interim Report January 2016' available at https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_481930_en.pdf

58 Kearns, A and Whitley, E (2015) Getting there? The effects of functional factors, time and place on the social integration of migrants, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 41:13, 2015-2129; Shubin, S and Dickey, H (2013) Integration and mobility of Eastern European migrants in Scotland, Environment and Planning, 45, 2959-2979; Scottish Government (2016) 'The Impacts of Migrants and Migration into Scotland', p. 61-3, available at www.gov.scot

59 Rudiger, A and Spencer, S (2003) Social integration of migrants and ethnic minorities: policies to combat discrimination, OECD; Ryan, L. (2018) Differentiated embedding: Polish migrants in London negotiating belonging over time, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 44:2, 233-251; Wessendorf, S. and Philimore, J. (2018) New Migrants' Social Integration, embedding and emplacement in superdiverse contexts, Sociology, https://doi.org/10.1177/0038038518771843; Strang, A. and Ager, A. (2008) Understanding integration: a conceptual framework, Journal of Refugee Studies, 21: 2, 166-191.

60 Strang, A. and Ager, A. (2008) Understanding integration: a conceptual framework, Journal of Refugee Studies, 21: 2, 166-191; COSLA (2017) Response to the MAC Call for Evidence: EEA-workers in the UK Labour Market, available at www.cosla.gov.uk/files/documents/17-12-15_cwb_item_11_-_migration_advisory_committee_response_appendix_1.pdf:.

61 Kay, R and Morrison, A (2012) Evidencing the Social and Cultural Benefits and Costs of Migration in Scotland, p.8 available at http://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_271231_en.pdf; cf. also Scottish Parliament Equal Opportunities Committee (2010) Fifth official report: Inquiry into migration and trafficking http://archive.scottish.parliament.uk/s3/committees/equal/reports-10/eor10-05-00.htm; Scottish Government (2016) 'The Impacts of Migrants and Migration into Scotland', p. 65, available at www.gov.scot

62 Kay, R. and Trevena, P. (forthcoming) ''New' migrations transforming the city: Central and East European settlement in Glasgow', in K. Kintrea and R. Madgin (eds) Transforming Glasgow: Beyond the Post-industrial City, Bristol: Policy Press.

63 De Lima, P (2012) Boundary crossings: migration, belonging/'un-belonging' in rural Scotland, in Hedberg, C and do Carmo, R (eds) Translocal ruralism: mobility and connectivity in European rural space, New York, Springer

64 SSAMIS (2016) 'Second Interim Report: Living and Working in Scotland: employment, housing, family and community' available at https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/media_500297_en.pdf; Kay, R. and Trevena, P. (forthcoming) ''New' migrations transforming the city: Central and East European settlement in Glasgow', in K. Kintrea and R. Madgin (eds) Transforming Glasgow: Beyond the Post-industrial City, Bristol: Policy Press; Flynn M., Kay R. (2017). Migrants' Experiences of Material and Emotional Security in Rural Scotland: Implications for Longer-Term Settlement. Journal of Rural Studies 52(1): 56–65.

65 Flynn M., Kay R. (2017). Migrants' Experiences of Material and Emotional Security in Rural Scotland: Implications for Longer-Term Settlement. Journal of Rural Studies 52(1): 56–65.

66 Kay, R. and Trevena, P. (forthcoming) ''New' migrations transforming the city: Central and East European settlement in Glasgow', in K. Kintrea and R. Madgin (eds) Transforming Glasgow: Beyond the Post-industrial City, Bristol: Policy Press

67 Interview available from the UK Data Service Reshare archive Ref. 10.5255/UKDA-SN-852584 RURAL_3_F39_Latv_Elizabete

68 COSLA (2017) Response to the MAC Call for Evidence: EEA-workers in the UK Labour Market, available at www.cosla.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/17-12-15_cwb_item_11a_-_migration_advisory_committee_response_appendix_1.pdf

69 Moskal, M. (2013) Circulating capitals between Poland and Scotland: a transnational perspective on European Labour Mobility, International Migration and Integration, 14: 363-379, p. 373.

70 See for example: http://www.mipex.eu/sweden#/tab-family-reunion; http://www.mipex.eu/france#/tab-family-reunion

71 Now the Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority, a UK non-departmental public body.

72 Interview available from the UK Data Service Reshare archive Ref. 10.5255/UKDA-SN-852584 EXPERT_36_STATE_27Feb_2014