UK immigration policy after leaving the EU: impacts on Scotland's economy, population and society

Annex A

NRS 2016-based population projections

This Annex provides the results of the NRS 2016-based projection and variants. Figures A1 to A7 are replications of Figures 5.12 to 5.18 using the results of the NRS projection. The assumptions of fertility and mortality trends and migration between Scotland and rUK are the same (or very similar) for the NRS and our projections. The main difference between the NRS principal and our principal projections is the assumption on future in- and out-migration levels. The NRS projection is based on long-term past migration trends (over 25 years), whereas our projection uses average flows from the last five years (which are similar to flows between 2001 and 2017). Overall, the NRS and our projection results are similar, except that our projections lead to a larger growth of Scotland's population. The comparison of the results of the NRS and our projections provides further information on how different assumptions about overseas migration between Scotland and overseas will shape Scotland's population size and structure over the next two decades.

Figure A1: Projected Scotland's population, 2016-2041.

Figure A2: Projected share of individuals 65 and older in Scotland, 2016-2041.

Figure A3: Projected dependency ratio in Scotland, 2016-2041.

Figure A4: Projected old age dependency ratio in Scotland, 2016-2041.

Figure A5: Projected relative change of individuals aged 16-64 in Scotland, 2016-2041.

Figure A6: Projected ratio of population aged 16-44 to aged 45-64 in Scotland, 2016-2041.

Figure A7: Projected relative population change in Scotland, 2016-2041.