Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme in Scotland: modelling report

1. Background

This is a report on the Scottish Government modelling that summarises both historic and the latest Scotland-level modelling on people displaced by the war in Ukraine. This modelling is used to forecast required capacity needed to accommodate displaced people from Ukraine. It is being published following the disembarkation of both the M/S Victoria and M/S Ambition ships. This report outlines the modelling methodology, and looks at how the past modelling has performed as well as publishing our future modelling predictions.

This report provides modelling on the number of displaced people from Ukraine that will require welcome accommodation. There has been a range of welcome accommodation across Scotland including hotels, aparthotels, apartments, and the M/S Victoria and M/S Ambition ships, both of which have now fully disembarked.

This modelling aims to forecast required capacity needed to accommodate displaced people from Ukraine, it does not aim to model the destination of all displaced people from Ukraine. Displaced people with visas are free to enter the country and live and work where they want. Not everyone entering the UK through the Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme (including those sponsored by the Scottish Government) will need accommodation provided to them. They may make their own arrangements, including renting their own accommodation or staying with friends and family. Some arrivals may have also self-matched with a volunteer host, assisted by a charity or support network. Those arrivals may never be in contact with a welcome hub or local authority seeking accommodation.

This is the first time that this modelling has been published.