Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme in Scotland: modelling report

2. Key points

• as reported by welcome accommodation teams across Scotland on 10 July, there were around 1,860 hotel rooms occupied by displaced people from Ukraine in welcome accommodation in Scotland.
• in the weekly data since January 2023, the estimated number of displaced people from Ukraine in welcome accommodation, as well as the number of welcome accommodation rooms and ship cabins occupied, are on an overall decreasing trend, as shown in the Ukraine Sponsorship Scheme in Scotland statistics publication. Published monthly data shows there was a peak in November 2022 with around 7,200 people in welcome accommodation, which has halved to around 3,535 people in welcome accommodation in July 2023.

• the current modelling estimates that by 21 August, the number of occupied welcome accommodation rooms will be between 1,380 and 1,820, with a central forecast of between 1,510 and 1,700.
• the modelling estimates assume that arrival and departure rates continue to follow recent trends and that there continues to be other accommodation options available. Given the forecast covers the next 6 weeks only, we assume that a continued supply of other accommodation options will be available.