Potential scale of Scottish seaweed-based industries: research paper

9 Conclusion

9.1.1 This study was commissioned to provide an evidence-based 'baseline' characterising the current seaweed-based industry in Scotland and to develop 'plausible' projected growth scenarios for the sector over the next 20 years (to 2040).

9.1.2 The outcomes of the study show that the current seaweed-based industry, which produces a range of products and ingredients for the food, animal feed, horticulture, cosmetic, nutrition and pharmaceutical sectors, is almost entirely dependent on wild harvested seaweed for raw material. Although the scale and economic impact^[40] of the current sector (total turnover c. £4 million; mean turnover £500,00; total GVA estimated at £510,000 per annum) is small relative to other industry sectors (e.g. fishing) it was described as of vital importance to local communities with regard to provision of jobs and income. Many of the businesses surveyed in this study expressed an intention to expand production and their product ranges and had invested in the necessary equipment and infrastructure to do so. Nearly all felt that the raw material requirements for this expansion could continue to be met through harvesting of wild seaweed, although they were keen to incorporate farmed seaweed into their products if it was commercially viable to do so. Based on this information, one projected scenario (Business as Usual) was developed in which the industry growth continued to be based on the provision of raw material through wild harvesting, with the assumption that commercial scale cultivation did not develop sufficiently to provide any significant supply of farmed seaweed into the supply chain.

9.1.3 The other key message from stakeholders was the keen interest in developing the seaweed cultivation sub-sector in Scotland, to supply various existing and emerging markets. Some key constraints to this development were raised including the economic feasibility of farming seaweed, lack of access to investment and funding to set up farms and the lack of defined markets for the relatively low-value species which can currently be grown. However, there was also strong interest in developing a circular (zero waste) economy for seaweed in Scotland, for example through development of novel biotechnology to produce a range of products (with a range of values) from farmed seaweeds. Based on this information, a second projected scenario (the higher growth scenario) was developed in which industry growth was supported by the provision of both wild harvested and farmed seaweed, enabling more rapid expansion of the sector.

9.1.4 Under the BAU scenario the seaweed industry and its supply chain are estimated to:

• Generate a total turnover of £22.1 million per year by 2040, comprising:
  • £2.9 million for seaweed production and £500,000 for their supply chain;
  • £15.4 million for businesses who produce seaweed-based products and £3.3 million for their supply chain.
• Contribute £11.5 million in GVA per year by 2040 directly to the seaweed industry and indirectly to the supply chain and a further £1.9 million in GVA per year by 2040 once induced impacts are included.
• Directly and indirectly (via the supply chain) support 130 FTE per year by 2040, and a further 30 FTE per year once induced impacts are included.

9.1.5 Under the Higher Growth scenario the seaweed industry and its supply chain are estimated to:

• Generate a total turnover of £71.2 million per year by 2040, comprising:
  • £3.5 million for seaweed production (wild harvesting) and £590,000 for their supply chain;
  • £52.6 million for businesses who produce seaweed-based products and £10.5 million for their supply chain;
  • £2.8 million for businesses who are cultivating seaweed and £1.2 million for their supply chain.
• Contribute £38.5 million in GVA per year by 2040 directly to the seaweed industry and indirectly to the supply chain and a furtherand a further £6.6 million per year in GVA once induced impacts are included. Overall, this would mean total GVA of £45.1 million by 2040.
• Directly and indirectly (via the supply chain) support 400 FTE jobs by 2040 and a further 90 FTE once induced impacts are included.

9.1.6 An analysis of wider socio-economic impacts indicated that the impacts are likely to be positive with increased economic prosperity likely to have positive impacts on job opportunities, disposable income and the costs of living. There would also likely be positive knock-on effects for local businesses in the community; in particular, potential positive impacts are expected on the long-term sustainability of supply chains. However, there is potential for some temporary disruption if migration is required to fill some skilled jobs, potentially felt by the local population in addition to increased demand on essentials and services (e.g. schools, housing).

9.1.7 Overall, the socio-economic impacts at the local/regional level both in terms of GVA and employment are likely to be more significant, compared to the national level impact. Careful planning and location of seaweed industry could thus incentivise and help diversify local and regional economies to a greater degree, whilst making a substantial impact on the wellbeing of individuals, communities and wider industry at a local level. The positive impacts may be limited though depending on:

• The skill level needed with in-migration of skilled workers potentially limiting benefits to local communities;
• Whether production is undertaken in the same location as harvesting/cultivation where benefits could be limited to harvesting/cultivation, drying and transport if manufacture of products occurs elsewhere;
• Potential competition for resources, such as the seabed for cultivation or access to boats. However, the scale of development of the seaweed industry should make this less significant.

9.1.8 The potential impacts of the development of the seaweed sector on other marine users will be site specific. Expansion of the wild harvesting sector up to 25,000 (BAU) or 30,000 tonnes p.a. (Higher Growth) may have the potential to affect other users (for example, the most likely interaction is with commercial fishing activity (potting) should wild harvesting be extended within shallow subtidal areas). The environmental impact will need to be assessed under the current consenting process.

9.1.9 There is greater potential for the cultivated seaweed sector to interact with other marine users given the increasing competition for marine space. Potential interactions with other marine users include exclusion of commercial trawling activity (and possibly potting) within seaweed arrays as well as competition for space with finfish and shellfish aquaculture businesses. It is expected that such interactions would be managed through marine planning and marine licensing systems.