Climate Change Plan 2018-2032 - update: strategic environmental assessment - draft

Chapter 4 - SEA Findings

4.1 This section of the Environmental Report sets out a summary of the environmental effects by sector, including the proposed mitigation and enhancement measures that should be taken into account to reduce likely significant effects. Where likely significant effects are identified, monitoring indicators will be outlined in the ER.

4.2 As discussed in Section 2, the assessment of the draft CCPu involved three-stages. A detailed assessment of the individual policies and proposals set out in the draft Plan (Appendix B) was initially undertaken.

4.3 The combined environmental effects were then considered for the eight sectors included in the draft CCPu. The findings of this assessment stage are set out in the Summary Tables presented in the following section of this Report (Stage 2). These tables also include a brief outline of the relevant policy context and key potential opportunities and constraints that have been identified.

4.4 To illustrate the key findings in the Summary Tables, a summary box and arrows have been used to show the significant impacts associated with each sector/policy grouping.

4.5 The following key has been used:

Positive Effect Overall - Effects are positive overall for that environmental topic

Mixed Effect Overall - Effects are mixed overall for that environmental topic

Negative Effect Overall - Effects are negative overall for that environmental topic

4.6 The accompanying narrative provides an over-arching and strategic analysis of the likely significant environmental impacts of the draft Plan and includes the potential for cumulative and in-combination effects.

Agriculture

Objectives of the Policies and Proposals

Promoting sustainable agriculture that contributes a range of environmental benefits

Encouraging farm management measures including soil testing, nitrogen use efficiency, manure management and animal health practices. This will be supported by information and advice for farmers, carbon auditing and the development of tailored support schemes.

Promoting the reduction and efficient use of nitrogen fertiliser.

Supporting reduced emissions intensity from livestock, slurry and manure Promoting agroforestry, woodland creation, and soil regeneration practices.

Opportunities

Opportunity to reduce GHG emissions from the agricultural sector through changing and improving farming practices and land use management.

Improved farm management, greater sustainability of the sector and opportunity to future-proof the industry.

Improved storage and application of slurries and manure.

Improved livestock genetics, including fertility and mortality, to reduce emissions intensity.

Further implementation of woodland creation and agroforestry practices.

Environmental Context

The Scottish Rural Development Programme 2014 - 2020 delivers Pillar 2 of the EU Common Agricultural Policy. It is aimed at protecting and improving the environment and addressing the impact of climate change on the sector.

Getting the Best from Our Land: A Land Use Strategy for Scotland 2016-2021 sets out activities up to 2021. Scotland’s third Land Use Strategy is currently out for consultation and is based around a series of conceptual landscapes and how policies relate to these.

Farming For A Better Climate set out five key action areas to help farmers tackle climate change and improve their business.

Constraints

Potential short-term cost implications for farmers in implementing changes, although longer term savings could also be expected as costs should be recuperated over time.

Effective communication will be required to demonstrate benefits in the sector.

Uncertainty in delivery of specific environmental benefits as a consequence of these policies and proposals.

Summary of Findings

Overall Significant Impacts

Positive Effect Overall: Climatic Factors, Soil, Water, Landscape, Biodiversity, Flora and Fauna, and Material Assets

There is potential for positive environmental effects from the policies and policy proposals in the update to the Climate Change Plan relating to the agricultural sector. In particular, there are extensive opportunities to contribute to GHG emission reductions though changing farming practices as a result of increased knowledge exchange, more efficient use of resources, notably a reduction in the use of nitrogen fertilisers, and encouraging a change in the way land is used and managed to provide greater carbon reduction/sequestration benefits (climatic factors and material assets). Changes in land use and management, such as maximising woodland creation and agroforestry, soil restoration and regeneration, and improving the storage and application of slurries and manures will also have positive effects on climatic factors and material assets.

There is also likely to be additional benefits through greater use of farm waste as sources of renewable energy through anaerobic digestion. The creation or enhancement of woodland could help alleviate flood risk and other potential implications of a changing climate. Furthermore, policies and proposals seeking to improve the emissions intensity of livestock through means such as genotyping will also contribute to reducing GHG emissions (climatic factors). The majority of the policies and proposals present an opportunity to improve the conditions of the natural environment and promote less intensive farming practices, for example, by reducing the use of chemical fertilisers, increasing natural and organic fertilisers, and generally improving the quality of the soil through soil restoration and grazing management. If land is managed properly, and there is less need to use nitrogen fertilisers, there could be a reduction in diffuse pollution and nutrient leaching from agricultural lands, with subsequent benefits for groundwater and surface water quality, soil structure, fertility and crop production (water, soil and material assets). Additionally, there is likely to be benefits for local habitats and species, particularly bird, aquatic and pollinating species (biodiversity). The creation or enhancement of new habitats through woodland creation could have positive effects on water quality by intercepting run-off (water).

There are also potential benefits for rural landscapes by improving the health and appearance of farmland through better management practices and increasing woodland cover on agricultural land (landscape), although the scale and nature of any such benefit would likely be site and region specific.

The significance of the effects will depend on the uptake of management practises on the ground. The facilitation of peer-to-peer knowledge exchange, and provision of governmental advice, guidance and subsidies will play a key role in this process.

Key Findings

• The policies and policy proposals are likely to have overall positive effects in contributing to meeting GHG emissions reduction targets. The extent of these benefits will depend on the level of take up of the measures.
• The take up of certain measures and practices will depend on peer-to-peer knowledge exchange and success of implementation elsewhere.
• Additional positive effects are also likely for the natural environment including soil, water and biodiversity.

Electricity Supply

Objectives of the Policies and Proposals

Supporting renewables and the development of new technologies through funding and incentives, including for community schemes.

Encourage investment in CCS and hydrogen technologies.

Promote the development of energy storage (including pumped hydro-storage) schemes and flexible systems.

Encourage development of technologies which facilitate improved security of supply.

Opportunities:

A decarbonised and decentralised electricity sector.

Increased take-up of renewable technologies.

Increased opportunity for the take up of CCS and hydrogen technologies.

Increased flexibility and security of supply from enhanced energy storage, and the development of community schemes.

Environmental Context:

A range of policies are in place which promote a reduction in emissions derived from electricity generation. The 2013 revision of the Electricity Generation Policy Statement and the 2020 Routemap for Renewable Energy set the pathway for the delivery of at least 100% of gross electricity consumption from renewables by 2020. It also promotes community-owned renewable schemes.

The NPF3 states that planning must facilitate the transition to a low carbon economy, and should deliver the aims of Scotland’s low carbon ambitions and the Climate Change Plan. A review of NPF3 has commenced and the Programme for Government highlights NPF4 as a major commitment in response to the global climate emergency. A final version of NPF4 is expected in 2021.

Constraints:

Cost implications in the development of new technologies and roll-out of CCS.

The primary influence on the implementation of new technologies will likely lie with the Government and market forces.

Uncertainty on the future of subsidies and funding schemes.

Summary of Findings

Overall Significant Impacts:

Positive Effect Overall: Climatic Factors, Population and Human Health, Air, and Material Assets

Mixed Effect Overall: Biodiversity, Soil, Cultural Heritage and Landscape

Policies and proposals are likely to result in predominantly positive effects with relation to climatic factors. Policies and proposals which seek to encourage and aid the decarbonisation of electricity generation will contribute to reduced GHG emissions. Furthermore, greater reductions in GHG emissions are also likely as a result of policies and proposals which promote innovation and encourage investment into new technologies such as electricity storage, CCS, and other low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen power. The development of technologies that enable electricity storage, will improve security of supply, along with promoting community-owned renewable schemes. Furthermore, improvements in air quality and subsequently population and human health are also likely from aiding a larger shift from traditional non-renewable supplies. The boosting of existing policies and the introduction to new policies included within the Update to the Climate Change Plan will help heighten these positive effects by further facilitating the shift to low-carbon and renewable electricity generation. This will subsequently enable greater reductions in GHG emissions, bringing further benefits in relation to climatic factors. Additionally, the boosting of these policies and new policies introduced will help achieve GHG emissions, renewables and low-carbon electricity targets in a shorter timeframe.

There is the potential for negative effects arising from some policies and proposals, particularly in relation to cultural heritage and landscape, as a result of development changing the setting of heritage assets and landscape character. Other negative effects could arise during the construction phase of development. Construction activity may have adverse effects on biodiversity, soil, water, air quality, and population and human health, due to pollution and noise. However, it is recognised that most effects associated with construction activity are short term in nature. The significance of the identified impacts will be dependent on factors such as the scale, nature and location of developments, and are likely to be experienced at a local level. Potential impacts are likely to be mitigated by existing mechanisms such as the planning system, SEPA regulation, marine licencing, EIA, HRA and on-site management measures.

Key Findings:

• The policies and proposals are likely to contribute to meeting GHG emissions reduction targets, through promoting renewable and low-carbon energy.
• Benefits include improved energy security, and greater flexibility in managing demand and supply.
• There is potential for adverse effects relate to infrastructure development and construction. However, potential impacts are likely to be mitigated by existing mechanisms such as the planning system, SEPA regulation and on-site management measures.

LULUCF

Objectives of the Policies and Proposals

Carbon sequestration, by increasing the amount of forested area in Scotland

Promoting peatlands restoration

Promoting a shift from high-energy building materials to renewable timber products, with associated benefits for the construction industry and rural populations.

Establishment of Regional Land Use Partnership pilots

Opportunities:

Creation of new peatland and forestry/woodland habitats, and biodiversity net gain.

Improving degraded landscapes.

Increasing the size of Scotland’s carbon sink, both in high-carbon soils and in woodland/forestry.

The development of local knowledge and skills to support restoration projects.

Opportunity to grow Scottish timber market, particularly for the construction industry.

Environmental Context:

Getting the Best from Our Land: A Land Use Strategy for Scotland 2016-2021 builds on the framework set out in 2011 in Scotland's first Land Use Strategy. Scotland’s third Land Use Strategy is currently out for consultation and brings together for the first time key strands of Scottish Government policy that affect land use, and sets out how these various policy areas fit together on the ground. The strategy is structured around a number of conceptual landscapes and recognises the role of peatland restoration and woodland cration and the wider benefits from these actions.

The Scottish Forestry Strategy 2019-2029 aims to achieve sustainable development of forests and woodlands, through good management and better integration with other land uses. Priorities include ensuring forests and woodlands are managed sustainably, increasing the adaptability and resilience of forests and woodlands and expanding the area of forests and woodlands, recognising wider land-use objectives.

Scotland’s National Peatland Plan seeks to quantify and promote the benefits of peatland restoration, protection and management.

The 2020 Challenge for Scotland’s Biodiversity seeks to protect biodiversity whilst utilising nature and its many processes and functions to improve prosperity and welfare.

Constraints:

Cost implications in restoration of peatland areas.

Cost of woodland creation.

Land availability and potential trade off with other land uses.

Timescale for approval of forestry projects.

Summary of Findings

Overall Significant Impacts:

Positive Effect Overall: Climatic Factors, Cultural Heritage, Biodiversity, Flora and Fauna, Soil, Water, Landscape and Population and Human Health

Negative Effect Overall: Material Assets

Largely positive environmental effects are expected from the land use, land use change and forestry sector; most notably in relation to a reduction in GHG emissions associated with the restoration of peatlands and creation of woodland and forestry. This will have positive effects on climatic factors. This may have additional positive effects in relation to population and human health, due to improved air quality. Furthermore, restoring peatland, and creating new woodland and forestry may increase access to the outdoors and provide recreational uses for people, such as walking and cycling opportunities.

Both peatland restoration and woodland creation is likely to result in positive effects in relation to habitat creation, soil function and stability, water quality, and natural flood management, depending on the scale and nature of changes. Therefore, these policies could potentially have positive effects in relation to soil, water, and biodiversity. However, whilst peatland, forestry and woodland will likely have positive effect, poorly designed forestry/woodland could have negative effects on local biodiversity, soil and water. Managing forests according to the UK Forestry Standard could help to mitigate the potential negative effects on biodiversity, soil and water quality, especially during the operations associated with timber harvesting.

There is potential for positive effects associated with land use change as a result of improving land management and restoring degraded land. However, demand for land from other land uses could also generate some pressure. As such, there may be mixed effects on material assets. Additionally, woodland, forestry and peatland restoration is likely to contribute to enhancing the landscape character and value, having mainly positive effects. However, effects on the landscape could potentially be mixed, as poorly designed and established woodlands or forests, and peatlands could affect the scenic value of the area which could lead to negative visual impacts. Furthermore, peatlands are of cultural value and their restoration will likely have positive impacts on cultural heritage.

The boosting of existing policies and the introduction to new policies included within the Update to the Climate Change Plan will help heighten these positive effects by further enhancing the rate of peatland restoration and forestry and woodland creation. This will subsequently enable greater reductions in GHG emissions, through an increased natural carbon sink, bringing greater benefits in relation to climatic factors. Furthermore, the boosting of these policies and new policies introduced will help achieve planting and restoration targets and GHG emission reduction targets in a shorter timeframe. These policies may also further enhance associated benefits to population and human health, landscape, soil, water, cultural heritage and biodiversity. However, as noted above, could also increase the potential negative effects for these topics.

It is considered that the potential negative impacts resulting from forestry could be mitigated by adhering to relevant UK forestry standards and guidelines, by adopting good practice and the development and revision of Local Authority Forest and Woodland Strategies. Further consideration of potential environmental effects is likely to be undertaken at a project level, where woodland creation proposals must meet the requirements of statutory processes for assessing impact on designated habitats or the wider environment; for example, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA).

Key Findings:

• Forestry planting and peatland restoration will likely increase Scotland’s carbon sink and contribute towards reduced GHG emission targets.
• Peatland restoration could have associated benefits for soil, water and biodiversity, particularly over the long-term.
• Woodland creation could have associated benefits for biodiversity, soil, water (flood management) and population and human health.
• Potential negative impacts could be mitigated at the project level by adhering to relevant UK forestry standards and guidelines, adopting good practice and through via existing mechanisms such as the planning process, EIA and HRA.

Industry

Objectives of the Policies and Proposals

Decarbonisation of the industrial sector and identifying opportunities for savings, and provision of support and access to finance.

Supporting investment in new technology to support emissions reductions.

Opportunities:

Investment in new and future-proofed industry, including low-carbon technologies such as renewable energy schemes and heat networks.

A change in thinking amongst industry and the identification of opportunities to increase productivity, save money and employ greater control over resource security.

Investment in energy efficiency measures across industry.

Environmental Context:

Scotland’s Economic Strategy sets out an overarching framework for a more productive, cohesive and fairer Scotland. The Economic Strategy forms the strategic plan for existing and all future Scottish Government policy. In addition to setting goals for sustainable economic growth, the Economic Strategy also sets out ambitions for investing in Scotland’s infrastructure, and prioritises investment to ensure that Scotland protects and nurtures its natural resources and captures the opportunities offered by the transition to a more resource efficient, lower carbon economy.

National policy such as NPF3 set out principles for increasing the sustainable use of Scotland’s natural resources. A review of NPF3 has commenced and the Programme for Government highlights NPF4 as a major commitment in response to the global climate emergency. A final version of NPF4 is expected in 2021.

Constraints:

Cost implications for businesses in the short-term.

'Buy-in' from businesses is voluntary Current economic uncertainty, particularly as a result of COVID-19.

Uncertainty in delivery of specific environmental benefits as a consequence of these policies and the proposal.

Summary of Findings

Overall Significant Impacts:

Positive Effect Overall: Climatic Factors, Material Assets, Population and human health, and Air

Negative Effect Overall: Population and Human Health, Landscape, Cultural Heritage Soil, Water, and Biodiversity, Flora and Fauna

A range of measures are expected to have positive effects on climatic factors as a result of reductions in GHG emissions. Such measures include the delivery of funding mechanisms including an Energy Transition Fund, Industrial Energy Transformation Fund, and Low Carbon Manufacturing Challenge Fund. In addition policies and proposals support the continuation of the Non-domestic Renewable Heat Incentive and funds to promote the uptake of low-carbon technologies and encourage the creation of green jobs. Schemes aimed at encouraging the uptake of low carbon heat technologies, district heating networks, and the installation of energy efficiency measures may reduce the demand for electricity and heat from fossil fuel sources. This will have positive effects on climatic factors. The boosted and new policies included within the Update to the Climate Change Plan will help heighten these positive effects by enabling greater reductions in GHG emissions. Furthermore, the boosting and new policies will help achieve targets faster. The greater uptake of energy efficiency measures within industry will likely result in a reduction in the demand for energy, thereby reducing pressure on supply and distribution networks, having positive effects on material assets. Further benefits may arise from the use of low-carbon heat technologies which may help improve security of supply, and reduced pressure on waste management facilities through the promotion and uptake of the circular economy. This could reduce reliance on finite resources and limit carbon generation from the processing of such materials, having benefits for both material assets and climatic factors. The boosted and new policies included within the update to the Climate Change Plan will help heighten these positive effects by enabling greater reductions in GHG emissions and further reducing pressure on existing energy infrastructure and waste management facilities. Furthermore, the boosting of existing policies and new policies will help achieve targets faster.

There is potential for localised adverse impacts on some topic areas, including population and human health, soil, water, air and biodiversity, as a consequence of construction and infrastructure improvement works from the installation of new heating networks, low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency measures. However, these effects resulting from construction activity are likely to be temporary in nature. Longer term negative impacts can arise from certain technologies which may impact on the fabric of a building or landscape character, having adverse effects on landscape and cultural heritage. However, it is recognised that policies and proposals will largely relate to existing industrial areas and as such are unlikely to result in further effects on cultural heritage or landscape.

The significance of the identified impacts will be dependent on factors such as the scale, nature and location of developments, and are likely to be experienced at a local level. Potential impacts are likely to be mitigated by existing mechanisms such as the planning system, SEPA regulation, EIA, HRA and on-site management measures.

Key Findings:

• The policies and proposals are likely to contribute to meeting GHG emissions reduction targets and increase resource security.
• The realisation of any benefits is likely to be influenced by communicating potential benefits and opportunities to the sector, and achieving the buy-in of industry is an opportunity to introduce long-term thinking into infrastructure development.
• In most cases, potential adverse effects relate to infrastructure development and construction. However, potential impacts are likely to be mitigated by existing mechanisms such as the planning system, SEPA regulation and on-site management measures.

Negative Emission Technologies

Objectives of the Policies and Proposals

Undertake feasibility work to identify specific sites and applications of NETs Transitioned decarbonisation of Scotland with a focus on the use of negative emission technologies. Promoting the development of a Bioenergy Action Plan, and the use of bioenergy technologies such as biomass.

Support and promote negative emission technologies including bioenergy, CCUS and hydrogen technologies.

Opportunities:

Investment in new and future-proofed industry, including low-carbon technologies such as CCUS and hydrogen.

Identification of opportunities to reduce GHG emissions through investment in negative emission technologies.

Environmental Context:

Scotland’s Economic Strategy sets out an overarching framework for a more productive, cohesive and fairer Scotland. The Economic Strategy forms the strategic plan for existing and all future Scottish Government policy. In addition to setting goals for sustainable economic growth, the Economic Strategy also sets out ambitions for investing in Scotland’s infrastructure, and prioritises investment to ensure that Scotland protects and nurtures its natural resources and captures the opportunities offered by the transition to a more resource efficient, lower carbon economy.

National policy such as NPF3 set out principles for increasing the sustainable use of Scotland’s natural resources. A review of NPF3 has commenced and the Programme for Government highlights NPF4 as a major commitment in response to the global climate emergency. A final version of NPF4 is expected in 2021.

Constraints:

Cost implications for businesses in the short-term.

'Buy-in' from businesses is voluntary

Current economic uncertainty, particularly as a result of COVID-19.

Uncertainty in delivery of specific environmental benefits as a consequence of these policies and the proposal.

Summary of Findings

Overall Significant Impacts:

Positive Effect Overall: Climatic Factors, Material Assets, and Population and human health

Negative Effect Overall: Landscape

Mixed Effect Overall: Population and Human Health, Air

A wide range of measures are expected to have positive effects on climatic factors as a result of reductions in GHG emissions. Such measures include the support and promotion of schemes which will result in negative emissions, such as CCUS, hydrogen and bioenergy. Furthermore, this may reduce the demand for electricity and heat from fossil fuel sources. This will have positive effects on climatic factors. In addition to utilising carbon obtained through CCUS, sequestering carbon emissions via CCUS is also likely to have significant positive effects by reducing GHG emissions, and may also lead to improvements in air quality. This may have subsequent benefits for population and human health. The boosted and new policies included within the Update to the Climate Change Plan will help heighten these positive effects by enabling greater reductions in GHG emissions. Furthermore, the boosting and new policies will help achieve targets faster.

Additionally, policies and proposals supporting the uptake and development of bioenergy, including biomass, may contribute to reductions in GHG emissions. However, whilst reducing GHG emissions may have positive effects on air quality, the combustion process associated with biomass may release pollutants into the air. Therefore, policies supporting these technologies may have mixed effects on air quality.

The greater uptake of alternative, negative emission technologies will likely reduce pressure on supply and distribution networks, having positive effects on material assets. Further benefits may arise from the use of negative emission technologies as they may help improve security and flexibility of supply. The boosted and new policies included within the Update to the Climate Change Plan will help heighten these positive effects by enabling greater reductions in GHG emissions and further reducing pressure on existing energy infrastructure. Furthermore, the boosting of existing policies and new policies will help achieve targets faster.

There is potential for localised adverse impacts on some topic areas, including population and human health, soil, water, air and biodiversity, as a consequence of construction and infrastructure improvement works from the installation of CCUS, hydrogen and bioenergy infrastructure. However, these effects resulting from construction activity are likely to be temporary in nature. Longer term negative impacts can arise from certain technologies which may impact on the fabric of a building or landscape character, having adverse effects on landscape and cultural heritage. The significance of the identified impacts will be dependent on factors such as the scale, nature and location of developments, and are likely to be experienced at a local level. Potential impacts are likely to be mitigated by existing mechanisms such as the planning system, SEPA regulation, EIA, HRA and on-site management measures.

Key Findings:

• The policies and proposals are likely to contribute to meeting GHG emissions reduction targets and increase resource security.
• The potential for technologies such as CCUS to help industry reduce climate change impacts, and aid the continued use of oil and gas as an energy source as industry transitions to low carbon energy sources.
• Bioenergy, notably biomass may result in mixed effects on air quality due to particles released during the combustion process.
• In most cases, potential adverse effects relate to infrastructure development and construction. However, potential impacts are likely to be mitigated by existing mechanisms such as the planning system, SEPA regulation and on-site management measures.

Buildings

Objectives of the Policies and Proposals

Decarbonising the heat supply to residential and non-domestic buildings, through a suite of existing and proposed funding, loans and investment measures

Regulating energy efficiency measures in residential and non-domestic buildings.

Introducing zero emissions heat standard for new buildings.

Co-ordinating and integrating delivery of a national scheme to replace Warmer Homes Scotland.

Widespread smart meter installation for all homes and businesses.

Summary of Likely Environmental Effects

Others, such as the consultation draft Infrastructure Investment Plan and Energy Efficient Scotland sets out wide ranging programmes targeting activity on energy efficiency.

Opportunities:

Increased energy efficiency of the domestic and non-domestic building stock.

Decarbonisation of heat generation in the sector.

Increased use of heat through district heat networks.

Increased retrofitting of energy efficiency measures.

Environmental Context:

National policy such as the NPF3 set out ambitions to reduce energy demand and increase renewable electricity and heat generation across Scotland. A review of NPF3 has commenced and the Programme for Government highlights NPF4 as a major commitment in response to the global climate emergency.

The Energy Efficient Scotland: Route Map focuses on improving the energy efficiency of Scotland's existing buildings and supporting the deployment of low carbon heat options to achieve the targets of the Climate Change Plan. The Scottish Energy Strategy: The future of energy in Scotland directly builds on the Heat Policy Statement of 2015, and it continues to focus on energy and electricity. However, this strategy takes a whole-system view and also includes heat and transport sectors.

The Heat Decarbonisations Strategy - A key objective of the Policy Statement will be to support heat decarbonisation of homes and buildings in Scotland, including the scaling up and acceleration of existing work with the aim to reduce emissions from heating our homes and buildings to levels compatible with net zero by 2045, in line with advice from the Committee on Climate Change and the targets in the 2019 Act.

Constraints:

Potential short-term cost implications for homeowners, although longer term savings could also be expected.

Upfront cost implications for development of heat networks.

‘Buy in’ will be required.

Significant upgrades and investment may be necessary to improve efficiency in older buildings.

Summary of Findings

Overall Significant Impacts:

Positive Effect Overall: Climatic Factors, Population and Human Health, Material Assets, and Air

Negative Effect OVerall: Soil, Cultural Heritage, Landscape, Water, Biodiversity

Largely positive effects are identified for policies and proposals in this sector in relation to climatic factors, population and human health, material assets, and air.

Improving energy efficiency and encouraging low carbon heat across Scotland's domestic and non-domestic building stock, will help to reduce GHG emissions, having positive effects on climatic factors. Encouraging energy efficiency, and low-carbon heat and energy will likely have subsequent benefits for air quality by minimising the demand for energy produced by more traditional, finite resources like oil and gas. Improvements in air quality will therefore have associated benefits for population and human health. Additionally, further benefits for population and human health are likely to arise from improved security of supply and reduced fuel poverty, which may also have benefits for general health and wellbeing.

Additionally, the greater uptake of new low carbon technologies could help reduce pressure on existing energy networks. Furthermore, the greater diversity in technologies and how they feed into the energy system will help to future-proof supply, and make it more resilient to the effects of climate change. Therefore, positive effects are expected in relation to material assets. The boosted and new policies included within the Update to the Climate Change Plan will help heighten these positive effects by enabling greater reductions in GHG emissions and further reducing pressure on existing energy networks. Furthermore, the boosting of policies and new policies introduced will help achieve GHG emission targets in a shorter timescale.

However, some potential negative effects were identified through the assessment of policies and proposals. Certain technologies, such as biomass, can have negative effects on air quality due to the release of air pollutants during the biomass combustion process. These pollutants may be harmful to human health. Additionally, energy efficiency measures can have some adverse effects, most notably, on biodiversity as a result of works undertaken to roof cavities (i.e. insulation) which may hold bat roosts. Furthermore, some efficiency measures could affect cultural heritage features directly or through visual impacts on their setting and landscape. In many instances, the impacts on cultural heritage and landscape may be managed through appropriate design. Additionally, the policy supporting the application and use of sensitively designed low carbon heat with heritage assets may avoid adverse effects.

In addition, some negative effects arising during the construction phase of development, such as for district heating systems, may occur. Many of these effects were temporary in nature, and may impact on soil, water, air and biodiversity and population and human health. The significance of the identified impacts will be dependent on the scale, nature and location of developments and likely to be experienced at a local level. Potential impacts are likely to be mitigated by existing mechanisms such as the planning system, SEPA regulation, EIA, HRA and on-site management measures.

Key Findings:

• Policies and proposals will likely improve energy efficiency of Scotland's building stock, and subsequently reduce GHG emissions. However, significance of effects will depend on level of buy-in from homeowners and businesses.
• There will likely be increased uptake of low-carbon heat, such as district/local heat networks.
• Many of the potential adverse effects are related to the need for infrastructure development, and are likely to be considerations under existing mechanisms such as the planning or consenting process, EIA and HRA, amongst others.

Transport

Objectives of the Policies and Proposals

Decarbonising the transport sector, including road, rail, ferries, shipping and aviation.

Reducing reliance on private cars

Encouraging take-up of low carbon technologies, particularly in relation to ULEVs.

Promoting and actively facilitating a modal shift towards low carbon travel (from road to rail, from motorised to active travel).

Changing how freight is delivered, whilst seeking to maximise secondary benefits such as improving air quality in urban areas and associated benefits to health and wellbeing.

Opportunities:

Investment in future-proofed infrastructure and low-carbon transport technologies, including electricity, hydrogen and biofuels.

Potential to drive change in how freight is delivered and transported.

Encourage behavioural change to travel, including up-take of public transport and active travel.

Increased up-take of electric vehicles amongst bus operators and taxi firms.

Environmental Context:

Scotland’s National Transport Strategy 2 considers the whole transport system including walking, wheeling, cycling, travelling by bus, train, ferry, car, lorry and aeroplanes. It sets out the strategic framework within which future decisions on investment will be made, including strategic objectives on improving journey times and connections, tackling congestion and improving integration: and reducing emissions to tackle climate change, air quality, and health improvement.

The NPF3 explored Scotland’s overarching ambitions for connectivity and accessibility, ambitions to change how we travel and ensuring infrastructure is in place to facilitate decarbonisation of the sector.

Infrastructure Investment Plan 2015 sets out priorities for investment and a long-term strategy for the development of public infrastructure in Scotland, including public transport. It sets out why the Scottish Government invests, how it invests and what it plans to invest in.

Constraints:

Legislation will be needed to progress several proposals (e.g. Low Emissions Zones).

Take-up of electric vehicles (EVs) and ultra-low emission vehicles (ULEVs) is dependent on consumer buy-in.

Financial incentives may be required.

Achieving stakeholder buy-in

Summary of Findings

Overall Significant Impacts:

Positive Effect Overall: Climatic Factors, Population and Human Health, and Air

Negative Effect Overall: Cultural Heritage, Landscape, Water, and Soil

Mixed Effect Overall: Material Assets, Biodiversity

Largely positive effects are identified for policies and proposals in this sector in relation to climatic factors, population and human health, and air.

Policies and proposals which encourage the take-up of electric and ultra-low emission vehicles (ULEVs) will help to further reduce the release of GHG emissions. Furthermore, policies supporting reduced travel journeys and active travel, as well as the decarbonisation of freight transport through electrification, and incentivising low emission aircrafts and sustainable aviation fuel may also contribute towards reductions in GHG emissions, having positive effects on climatic factors.

In addition, many of the policies and proposals encouraging a modal shift to low-carbon transport, may result in subsequent improvements in air quality, particularly in urban areas with Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs). The reduction in air pollution, as a result of replacing cars, HGVs, buses and trains with low-carbon alternatives may therefore provide benefits for population and human health. However, having appropriate infrastructure in place to enable this transition will be vital in achieving these benefits, and will provide benefits in terms of material assets. However, until appropriate infrastructure is in place, an increase in the up-take of low carbon vehicles may put increased pressure and demand on existing infrastructure networks.

The boosting of existing policies and the introduction to new policies included within the Update to the Climate Change Plan will help heighten these positive effects by further facilitating the shift to low-carbon and sustainable modes of transport. This will subsequently enable a greater reductions in GHG emissions, bringing greater benefits in relation to climatic factors. Furthermore, the boosting of these policies and new policies introduced will help achieve GHG emissions, emissions reduction target for the transport sector, and will provide additional benefits to air quality and human health in a shorter timeframe.

However, upgrades to or the creation of new infrastructure to facilitate this modal shift to low-carbon technologies may have localised negative environmental effects. For example, the development of freight distribution centres, charging facilities and hydrogen processing plants could lead to effects on biodiversity and soil (from land take), population and human health (from noise and air pollution), water and air quality. These effects would most likely occur during the construction phase and would be largely temporary in nature.

Furthermore, the siting of developments, particularly those of larger scales, could also have effects on the setting of cultural heritage and landscape character. However, the significance of the identified impacts will be dependent on the scale, nature and location of developments and likely to be experienced at a local level. Potential impacts are likely to be mitigated by existing mechanisms such as the planning system, SEPA regulation, EIA, HRA and on-site management measures.

Key Findings:

• Policies and proposals will likely result in increased up-take of electric and ultra-low emission vehicles, both by individuals and public transport operators.
• Policies and proposals will likely contribute to meeting GHG emissions reduction targets.
• The significance of effects will depend on the level of buy-in from stakeholders and the wider transport sector.
• Infrastructure development could result in largely localised and temporary adverse effects. Potential impacts are likely to be mitigated by existing mechanisms such as the planning system, EIA, HRA and on-site management measures.

Waste

Objectives of the Policies and Proposals

Reducing waste (including food waste), and delivering on recycling and landfill diversion targets for 2025.

Capturing landfill gas on closed sites.

Promoting a circular economy through policy and legislation..

Opportunities:

Reducing the amount of waste sent to landfill.

Promoting recycling and the re-use of waste materials, infusion of this into the design and manufacturing process, and industry seeing waste as a resource.

Reduction in consumption of natural resources from improved utilisation of waste, and potential for reduction in GHG emissions, particularly in the industrial sector due to reduced manufacturing and processing.

Opportunity for businesses to better manage resource inputs and waste outputs.

Reducing the use of single-use items such as beverage cups and carrier bags.

Environmental Context:

Making Things Last: A Circular Economy Strategy for Scotland sets out priorities for moving towards a more circular economy with a long-term ambition. It articulates Scotland's aspirations and proposes a number of actions to take over the short to medium term and creates conditions for long term change. It seeks to reduce waste lost from the economy, and retain the value of materials through repair, reuse, recycling and remanufacturing.

The Strategy builds on the progress made on the zero waste and resource efficiency agenda set out in Scotland’s Zero Waste Plan and Safeguarding Scotland’s Resources.

Constraints:

Likely to be short-term cost implications for business and the industry.

There is some uncertainty in the delivery of specific environmental benefits as a consequence of these policies and the proposal.

Summary of Findings

Overall Significant Impacts:

Positive Effect Overall: Climatic Factors and Material Assets

Negative Effect Overall: Population and Human Health, Landscape, Cultural Heritage, Air, Water, and Biodiversity, Flora and Fauna

Mixed Effect Overall: Soil

This sector could have largely positive environmental effects in relation to climatic factors and material assets, but some negative effects are identified in relation to some SEA topics. However, these negative effects are likely to arise from infrastructure development and construction and will likely be short term in nature.

As a result of improved waste management, positive effects are likely in relation to climatic factors and material assets, by reducing pressure on existing landfill infrastructure and contributing to reductions in GHG emissions. The policies and proposals promoting the circular economy and seeking to achieve waste and recycling targets, will result in the more efficient use of resources and will encourage the reuse, recycling and remanufacturing of goods (material assets). This may have further benefits on GHG emission reduction and climatic factors, as the remanufacturing of goods is less resource-intensive than manufacturing from new. Additionally, proposals supporting the futureproofing of waste facilities for CCS technologies may have further benefits in relation to GHG emissions. The boosted and new policies included within the Update to the Climate Change Plan will help heighten these positive effects by enabling greater reductions in GHG emissions and further reducing pressure on landfill infrastructure and new resources. Furthermore, the boosting and new policies will help achieve targets faster.

Additionally, the promotion of landfill gas capture will reduce GHG emissions released to the atmosphere by capturing methane produced at landfill sites before it can be released. This will have further positive effects on climatic factors. However, new and boosted policies that increase the number of landfill gas capture sites will help achieve greater reductions in GHG emissions over a shorter timescale.

Localised negative effects could arise from changes in how waste is managed, including policies that may require the development of new recycling and waste management facilities. Such policies may have potential negative effects on biodiversity, soil, water, air quality, population and human health, landscape and cultural heritage. These effects can occur from the construction, operation and siting of waste infrastructure developments. It is noted that any effects resulting from construction activity is largely temporary in nature. Whilst there may be a reduced need for landfill operations, leading to benefits for soil, there could be requirements for a greater number of additional recycling and waste management facilities which could have negative impacts on soil from land take. The significance of the identified impacts will be dependent on the scale, nature and location of developments and likely to be experienced at a local level. Potential impacts are likely to be mitigated by existing mechanisms such as the planning system, SEPA regulation, EIA, HRA and on-site management measures.

Key Findings:

• Improving how waste is utilised in our economy, through recycling and reuse, is likely to reduce pressure on waste infrastructure.
• Improving recycling and reuse of materials is likely to reduce consumption of resources, and by reducing the manufacturing of goods is likely to contribute to a reduction in GHG emissions.
• The significance of any benefits will depend on the level of stakeholder commitment and buy-in.
• In most cases, potential adverse effects relate to infrastructure development and construction. However, potential impacts are likely to be mitigated by existing mechanisms such as the planning system, SEPA regulation and on-site management measures.
• There is an opportunity to further increase long-term thinking in how waste materials are used in the manufacturing sector.

Summary of Likely Environmental Effects

Primary Environmental Effects

Electricity

4.7 Policies and proposals within the electricity sector are expected to have significant positive effects in relation to climatic factors as they generally seek to aid the decarbonisation of electricity generation through new technologies such as renewable energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen and electricity storage. The greater implementation of these green technologies will contribute towards reducing GHG emissions, as a result of reducing reliance on fossil-fuelled electricity. Additionally, the greater implementation of such technologies is likely to result in significant positive effects on material assets due to improved flexibility and security of supply.

Transport

4.8 Policies and proposals within the transport sector are expected to have significant positive effects in relation to climatic factors as they generally seek to aid the decarbonisation of transport through promoting the uptake of ULEVs and zero or low emission aeroplanes, encouraging behavioural change to journeys (e.g. shorter/less journeys) and encouraging travel by active and public transport. The implementation of these measures will contribute towards reducing GHG emissions, thereby having positive effects on climate change. With a shift from traditionally fuelled vehicles to ULEV, and greater uptake of active travel, there is likely to be improvements in air quality due to less pollution, particularly in urban areas within Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs), and subsequent benefits to population and human health.

Industry

4.9 Policies and proposals within the industry sector promote a wide range of measures such as the introduction of the funding for green jobs and the decarbonisation of the industry sector, and funds to promote the uptake of low-carbon technologies (e.g. low-carbon heat, renewable energy and energy efficiency measures). The greater uptake and use of these technologies and schemes set out within the industry sector is likely to result in significant positive effects in relation to climate change, as a result of reductions in GHG emissions across the sector.

4.10 Furthermore, the greater use of low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency measures across the industry sector will likely result in a reduction in the demand for energy, thereby reducing pressure on supply and distribution networks. The uptake of such technologies may also provide greater security of supply. Therefore, policies and proposals across the industry sector are generally expected to have positive effects in relation to material assets.

Negative Emissions Technologies

4.11 Policies and proposals within the negative emission technologies sector promote a wide range of measures which support the uptake of negative emission technologies, such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage, and hydrogen technologies. Policies and proposals provide mechanisms for the identification of potential sites, funding, demonstration and the expansion of evidence relating to such technologies. Additionally, policies and proposals supporting the uptake of bioenergy and biomass may encourage low-carbon alternative to provide energy, heat and transport fuel. The greater uptake and use of these technologies and schemes set out within the negative emission technologies sector is likely to result in significant positive effects in relation to climate change, as a result of reductions in GHG emissions across the sector.

4.12 Furthermore, the greater use of negative emission technologies across the sector will reduce pressure on energy supply and distribution networks. The uptake of such technologies may also provide greater security of supply. Therefore, policies and proposals across this sector are generally expected to have positive effects in relation to material assets.

Buildings

4.13 Policies and proposals within the buildings sector are expected to have significant positive effects in relation to climatic factors as they generally seek to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, promote low carbon and renewable energy, and low carbon heat such as heat networks. This will result in reductions in GHG emissions due to less reliance on traditional fuels. Furthermore, improving efficiency and promoting uptake of low-carbon energy and heat will have positive effects on population and human health as a result of improved flexibility and security of supply.

Agriculture

4.14 All policies and proposals set out within the agriculture sector are expected to have significant positive effects relating to climate change due to the promotion of more efficient and sustainable farming practices which will reduce GHG emissions, such as reduced use of nitrogen fertilisers and improved emissions intensity of livestock. Furthermore, proposals supporting advice, support and knowledge exchange, onsite renewable energy generation, and land use management to provide increased carbon sequestration will also facilitate reductions in GHG emissions.

4.15 General improvements in land management practices will also have positive effects in relation to material assets, and proposals supporting the development of other habitats such as woodland within agricultural holdings will provide benefits for biodiversity by providing new habitats and greater connectivity.

Waste

A reduction in waste going to landfill is likely to have positive effects on each of the environmental topics, however, policies and proposals within the waste sector are expected to have significant positive effects in relation to climatic factors as they generally seek to reduce pressure on landfill infrastructure and increase recycling of waste. Proposals supporting recycling and the circular economy, reductions in food waste, improved resource efficiency, the banning of single use items such as bottles and carrier bags, and behavioural change could lead to reductions in GHG emissions as a result of less processing of waste and reduced need to manufacture goods from new. Positive effects on GHG emissions are also predicted from policies and proposals seeking to capture landfill gas which would otherwise be released into the atmosphere, and for proposals requiring waste facilities are 'future-proofed' for CCS technology. Additionally, policies and proposals which will aid in reducing pressure on landfill infrastructure are expected to have positive effects on material assets.

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

4.16 The policies and proposals set out within the LULUCF sector are likely to result in significant positive effects in relation to climate change. Policies and proposals generally promote the expansion and creation of woodland and forestry and/or support peatland restoration. The expansion of woodland and forestry is expected to contribute towards mitigating GHG emissions by increasing rates of carbon sequestration, and the restoration of peatland will improve the quality of high carbon soils, reducing GHG emissions and maximising the potential for carbon to be stored. Therefore, the enhancement of the carbon sink will likely contribute towards reduced emissions.

4.17 Additionally, the policies and proposals relating to LULUCF are expected to have mixed effects on material assets as although they may promote and encourage better land management and may improve degraded land through planting of woodland or forestry or peatland, there may be direct conflicts of land use. For example, loss of agricultural land for woodland, forestry or peatland restoration.

Secondary Environmental Effects

Electricity

4.18 Several secondary effects are identified as likely to arise from policies and proposals within the electricity sector. Firstly, policies and proposals which seek to reduce reliance on fossil-fuelled electricity by promoting the uptake of new low-carbon technologies are likely to have associated benefits on air quality due to the release of less GHG emissions. This is identified as resulting in subsequent benefits for population and human health.

4.19 Proposals which encourage the uptake of low-carbon technologies such as renewable energy, CCS and hydrogen etc. may result in development which could have adverse effects on topics such as landscape and cultural heritage. Furthermore, some development may have adverse effects in relation to soils, depending on the scale, nature and location of development.

4.20 Additionally, policies and proposals within the electricity sector may have adverse secondary effects on a number of SEA topics such as population and human health, soil, water, air and biodiversity, as a consequence of construction and infrastructure improvement works. However, it is recognised that these effects are likely to be temporary in nature.

Transport

4.21 Whilst policies and proposals within the transport sector are expected to have primary positive effects in relation to climatic factors, air and population and human health, a number of secondary effects have been identified in relation to other SEA topics. Policies promoting alternatively fuelled vehicles, public transport and active travel may result in additional infrastructure requirements. If sufficient infrastructure is in place, there may be positive effects on material assets. However, if existing infrastructure is not adequate to meet the needs of development set out in policies and proposals, there may be increased pressure on infrastructure, having adverse effects for material assets.

4.22 Transport related development as outlined in policies and proposals may have mixed effects on biodiversity due to potential loss of habitat for infrastructure. However, promotion of active travel such as footpaths and cycle paths may provide biodiversity benefits by creating linear corridors of habitat.

4.23 Likewise, development of transport infrastructure such as new roads, distribution centres, charging facilities and processing plants for alternative fuels such as hydrogen could have potential adverse effects on soil, population and human health air and water quality. However, it is recognised that some of these effects are likely to arise during construction periods and are temporary in nature.

Industry

4.24 A number of secondary effects are identified as likely to arise from policies and proposals within the industry sector. Policies and proposals which support and promote the uptake of measures which will result in reductions in GHG emissions are likely to have associated benefits for air quality, and subsequent benefits for population and human health.

4.25 Policies and proposals may result in the greater uptake of technologies and measures which could affect the fabric of a building, heritage asset or landscape character. However, it is recognised that these policies and proposals will primarily relate to improvements or application of technologies in existing industrial areas which may have already affected landscape or cultural heritage. Additional development resulting from these policies and proposals are unlikely to have significant secondary effects in relation to cultural heritage and landscape.

4.26 Additionally, policies and proposals within the industry sector may have adverse secondary effects on a number of SEA topics such as population and human health, soil, water, air and biodiversity, as a consequence of construction and infrastructure improvement works. However, it is recognised that these effects are likely to be temporary in nature.

Negative Emissions Technologies

4.27 A number of secondary effects are identified as likely to arise from policies and proposals within the negative emission technologies sector. Policies and proposals which support and promote the uptake of measures which will result in reductions in GHG emissions are likely to have associated benefits for air quality, and subsequent benefits for population and human health. However, policies and proposals supporting bioenergy such as biomass may have mixed effects in relation to air quality as the biomass combustion process can result in the emission of air pollutants which could have subsequent adverse effects on human health.

4.28 Additionally, policies and proposals within the negative emission technologies sector may have adverse secondary effects on a number of SEA topics such as population and human health, soil, water, air and biodiversity, as a consequence of construction and infrastructure improvement works. However, it is recognised that these effects are likely to be temporary in nature.

Buildings

4.29 Several secondary effects are identified as likely to arise from policies and proposals within the building sector. Firstly, policies and proposals which seek to reduce reliance on fossil-fuelled energy and heat could result in air quality improvements. However, the implementation of such technologies may have adverse effects on a number of SEA topics. Changes to the fabric of buildings to incorporate energy efficiency measures or low-carbon technologies might have adverse effects on biodiversity (e.g. roosting bats) or cultural heritage or landscape as a result of changes to the appearance of buildings.

4.30 As a consequence of construction and building improvement works, there may be adverse effects on topics such as soil, biodiversity, water and air quality. However, it is recognised that these effects are likely to be temporary in nature.

Agriculture

4.31 Improvements in land management techniques, as set out in policies and proposals within the agriculture sector may have secondary effects on several SEA topics. Promoting better land management and the more efficient use of fertilisers may reduce nutrient leaching and pollution of nearby watercourses, having positive effects on water quality. This may have subsequent benefits for biodiversity, including aquatic species.

4.32 Furthermore, limiting fertiliser use and promoting a diverse range of habitats may improve soil quality. Improved soil quality may have subsequent benefits on material assets as a result of improved fertility and crop production. In addition, better land management practices and the planting of habitats such as woodland and hedgerows may improve landscape character, and have positive effects on the setting of cultural heritage assets.

Waste

4.33 Policies and proposals within the waste sector are expected to have adverse secondary effects in relation to several SEA topics such as population and human health, biodiversity, soil, water, landscape, cultural heritage and air quality, as a consequence of construction, operation and siting of waste infrastructure. However, it is recognised that these effects will be dependent on the scale, nature and location of developments, and in the case of effects arising from the construction phase, may be temporary in nature.

Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry

4.34 Alongside significant positive effects on climate change, the policies and proposals set out within the LULUCF sector are likely to result in positive secondary effects in relation to several other SEA topics. Policies supporting woodland expansion or creation, and peatland restoration may subsequently result in improvements to population and human health as a result of improved opportunities to access woodland, forestry and peatland for recreational purposes.

4.35 Additionally, secondary benefits arising from woodland and forestry creation and peatland restoration may result in positive effects on water due to intercepting and filtering pollutants and providing natural flood management measures. Likewise, benefits to soils may arise due to increased soil stability resulting from the planting of woodland and forestry and improved quality of high carbon soils from peatland restoration.

4.36 Further benefits may arise for biodiversity, as a result of the creation of new and improved habitats and greater connectivity. However, in some cases, policies and proposals may result in adverse effects on biodiversity as the creation of woodland or peatland restoration may impact non-woodland and non-peatland biodiversity, respectively.

Summary of Cumulative and In-combination Effects

4.37 The following paragraphs set out the potential cumulative and in-combination effects likely to arise from the Climate Change Plan.

Climatic Factors and Emissions Reduction

4.38 The policies and proposals set out in each of the eight sectors within the update to the Climate Change Plan are expected to make a significant contribution to Scotland’s commitment to GHG reduction targets.

4.39 All of the policies and proposals set out in the update to the Climate Change Plan will contribute towards reducing GHG emissions and meeting Scotland's target for net zero, thereby having positive effects on climatic factors. The extent to which these policies and proposals will contribute towards emission reductions varies, with complementary roles of the policies and proposals resulting in overall positive cumulative effects. For example, measures aimed at promoting energy efficiency within the building and industry sectors will be complemented by those that provide financial mechanisms to facilitate their uptake.

4.40 All of the policies and proposals within the electricity sector focus on aiding the decarbonisation of electricity generation, and promote the increased uptake of renewable and low carbon technologies. These policies and proposals will be complemented by policies and proposals supporting technologies such as electric vehicles, electricity storage, CCUS, hydrogen power. This sector therefore could make a significant contribution towards meeting net zero targets, and ensuring a broad mix of technologies will help improve the security and flexibility of supply. This will be important in order to meet the future challenges to electricity supply and transmission.

4.41 Furthermore, reducing the overall demand for electricity and energy within the buildings and industry sector by improving the energy efficiency of both domestic and non-domestic buildings, and industry will further contribute towards reducing GHG emissions. The policies and proposals set out within these sectors may also encourage reductions in GHG emissions by promoting and supporting the uptake of renewable and low-carbon energy and heat technologies. In addition, the promotion and support of negative emission technologies including CCUS, hydrogen and bioenergy may further contribute towards GHG emission reductions.

4.42 Land management will also play a fundamental role in reducing GHG emissions. Policies and proposals, such as those that relate to the creation of woodland and forestry and restoration of peatland, will help to reduce emissions and support adaptation. Expanding the area of woodland and forestry across Scotland will increase the rate of carbon sequestration, whilst peatland restoration will improve the quality of high carbon soils, providing greater potential for increasing the carbon sink. These measures will be complemented by policies and proposals relating to land management practices within the agricultural sector which aim to promote a greater diversity of habitats (e.g. providing woodland or wetland areas). Additionally, the policies and proposals supporting the creation of forestry and woodland, and peatland restoration may provide supplementary benefits in relation to climatic factors due to potential opportunities for climate change adaptation. This includes for example, natural flood management, and providing shading and cooling.

4.43 Furthermore, reductions and more targeted use of fertilisers and improved efficiency of resources may also contribute towards general reductions in GHG emissions. Other measures promoted within the agricultural sector policies and proposals include reducing the emission intensity of livestock, which will have direct effects on GHG emission reductions across the sector.

4.44 The policies and proposals relating to transport will also play a fundamental role in reducing GHG emissions. Policies generally support the decarbonisation of the sector, seeking greater uptake of ultra-low emission vehicles (ULEVs) and behavioural change towards travel. Policies and proposals promote the use of public and active transport modes for journeys and encourage a reduction in the number and length of journeys made by private vehicle. This will have direct effects on reducing GHG emissions, and subsequent benefits for other SEA topics which are discussed below.

4.45 Likewise, policies and proposals within the waste sector are expected to have significant positive effects in relation to climate change as they generally seek to reduce pressure on landfill infrastructure and increase recycling of waste. Proposals supporting recycling and the circular economy, landfill gas capture reductions in food waste and the banning of single use items could lead to reductions in GHG emissions as a result of less processing of waste and reduced need to manufacture goods from new.

4.46 However, having appropriate infrastructure in place to enable the transition and uptake of technologies such as ULEVs, low-carbon and renewable energy and heat will be vital in achieving these benefits for climate change, and will provide benefits additional benefits in terms of material assets (discussed below).

Population and Human Health

4.47 Many of the policies and proposals set out within the update to the climate change plan are likely to have significant benefits for air quality in Scotland, and subsequently will have significant positive effect on population and human health. Air quality issues are often associated with the release of GHG emissions, which are frequently derived from the transport and energy sectors. Therefore, policies and proposals which seek to reduce emissions from these sources, including those related to CCUS, are therefore likely to provide benefits to air quality, and subsequently, population and human health.

4.48 In addition to policies and proposals relating to decarbonisation of transport, those which promote uptake of active travel such as walking and cycling, may have additional benefits by increasing physical activity and helping to improve mental wellbeing. This may be complemented by policies and proposals within the LULUCF sector which may provide improved recreational opportunities by increasing accessibility for people to woodland and forestry, and areas of peatland.

4.49 Policies and proposals supporting improved energy efficiency in buildings and industry, and uptake of low carbon and renewable energy and heat may have additional benefits for population and human health by reducing fuel poverty, and ensuring access to warm homes and workplaces. This will reduce exposure to cold, damp, and mouldy properties. They will also increase the resilience of buildings to the future effects of climate change, and ensuring a reliable, secure and flexible supply of energy.

4.50 However, some negative effects arise as a result of construction activities relating to the development and improvement of infrastructure and buildings. These are likely to be short-term in nature. These are most likely to be related to nuisance such as dust, noise, vibration or visual impact, and are likely to be localised and temporary. In many instances, adverse impacts may be mitigated through a combination of planning mechanisms and on-site management measures.

Air

4.51 Many of the policies and proposals set out within the update to the Climate Change Plan are likely to have significant benefits for air quality in Scotland. As air pollution often originates from the same sources and activities that contribute to the release of GHG emissions, notably transport and electricity/energy generation, proposals which support the move towards low-carbon and renewable energy, and seek to decarbonise the transport sector are expected to have associated benefits to air quality. Therefore, reducing emissions from these sources is therefore likely to improve air quality at both local and national levels.

4.52 One of the primary causes of poor air quality is due to pollution derived from transport. Policies and proposals which aim to aid the decarbonisation of the transport sector are therefore likely to have significant positive effects on improving air quality. Measures to improve air quality are further complemented by policies and proposals which encourage the use of active and public modes of transport.

4.53 Additionally, the decarbonisation of the energy and electricity sector through promotion of low-carbon and renewable energy and heat, is likely to have further positive effects on air quality. This will be complemented by policies within the buildings and industry sector which also promote energy efficiency measures, thereby requiring less energy production, and the uptake of low-carbon and renewable technologies.

4.54 Technologies such as CCUS, as promoted within the negative emission technologies sector, could help to contribute to significant reductions in air pollution; particularly if utilised on a commercial scale. While this could have positive effects for air quality, any benefits will be influenced by the specific CCUS utilised and the industries for which this technology is used. For example, increased uptake of biomass may result in combustion related air pollution.

4.55 Policies and proposals relating to the agricultural and LULUCF sectors are unlikely to contribute significantly towards improvements in air quality, although actions in relation to agriculture may reduce pollutants such as ammonia.

Soil

4.56 Several sectors within the update to the Climate Change Plan are likely to have significant benefits for soil quality in Scotland. Both the LULUCF and agricultural sectors are identified as having policies and proposals which could have potential significant effects on soil quality. Policies and proposals relating to the creation of woodland and forestry may improve soil stability and drainage, and those promoting peatland restoration are likely to improve the quality of high carbon soils. These positive effects on soil are likely to be complemented by policies and proposals promoting better land use management across the agricultural sector. For example, reducing the use of nitrogen and chemical fertilisers may also improve soil quality, increasing the general fertility of the soil, increasing crop production, and minimising the leaching of minerals.

4.57 Additionally, both positive and negative effects on soil are anticipated as a result of policies and proposals set out in the waste sector. Policies and proposals which support the reduced need for landfilling of waste may have positive effects on soil due to less land take for landfilling. However, policies and proposals which promote and encourage recycling may result in increased land take to accommodate recycling and waste management facilities, having adverse effects on soil.

4.58 However, the widespread uptake of low-carbon and renewable energy and heat technologies, as promoted across the electricity, buildings negative emission technologies, and industry sectors, may have adverse effects on soil quality due to the siting of developments, resulting in soil sealing and soil compaction. This may be particularly relevant when considered cumulatively, especially due to the development of large-scale commercial scale renewable energy schemes such as wind farms, which are often sited in landscapes with important soil resources.

Water

4.59 Both the LULUCF and agricultural sectors are identified as having policies and proposals which are likely to result in significant benefits for water quality. Policies and proposals relating to the creation of woodland and forestry may improve the quality of nearby watercourses and groundwater as it could intercept run-off and filter pollutants. Additionally, policies relating to peatland restoration are also expected to improve water quality by storing and cleaning water, as well as acting as important natural flood plains, soaking up excess water and regulating run-off. Woodland and forestry may also provide natural flood management measures.

4.60 These positive effects are likely to be complemented by policies and proposals within the agricultural sector which relate to better land management practices. For example, reducing the use of nitrogen and chemical fertilisers may reduce nutrient leaching, run-off and contamination of nearby watercourses. This may have subsequent benefits for biodiversity, including aquatic species.

4.61 However, some negative arise as a result of construction activities relating to the development and improvement of infrastructure. This is likely to be localised and short-term in nature. In many instances, adverse impacts may be mitigated through a combination of planning mechanisms and on-site management measures.

Biodiversity, Flora and Fauna

4.62 Both the LULUCF and agricultural sectors are identified as having policies and proposals which are likely to result in significant benefits for biodiversity, flora and fauna. Policies and proposals relating to the creation of woodland and forestry may provide benefits for biodiversity by creating new habitats and improving connectivity of the ecological network. This may enable species movement and provide greater resilience to the future effects of climate change. Policies relating to peatland restoration will are also expected to improve peatland biodiversity. However, it is noted that the creation of woodland and peatland may result in adverse effects on non-woodland and non-peatland biodiversity.

4.63 These positive effects arising from woodland/forestry creation and peatland restoration are likely to be complemented by policies and proposals within the agricultural sector which relate to better land management practices. For example, encouraging the planting of woodlands and hedgerows will provide benefits for biodiversity, and reducing the use of nitrogen and chemical fertilisers may improve the quality of nearby watercourses, having subsequent benefits for aquatic biodiversity.

4.64 Policies and proposals relating to the decarbonisation of the electricity sector, including those promoting large-scale renewable energy development may disturb both terrestrial and marine biodiversity, with bird strike a notable issue for onshore wind turbines. Likewise, policies and proposals supporting energy efficiency in homes may adversely affect biodiversity such as roosting bats, if roof cavities are disturbed for the installation of insulation.

4.65 Additionally, some negative effects arise because of construction activities relating to the development and improvement of infrastructure. This is likely to be localised and short-term in nature. In many instances, adverse impacts during both construction and operation may be mitigated through a combination of planning mechanisms such as Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), appropriate siting and design, local consultation and engagement and on-site management measures.

Cultural Heritage & Historic Environment

4.66 Both the LULUCF and agricultural sectors are identified as having policies and proposals which are likely to result in significant benefits for cultural heritage and the historic environment. Policies and proposals relating to the creation of woodland and forestry may improve the setting of heritage assets, depending on the species grown and the design of planting. Furthermore, policies promoting peatland restoration have the potential to have benefits on cultural heritage, particularly as peatlands are considered some of Scotland’s most iconic landscapes and are culturally significant.

4.67 Policies and proposals seeking to improve the energy efficiency of buildings and encouraging the uptake of low carbon and renewable energy technologies may have adverse effects on cultural heritage and the historic environment. In particular, the retrofitting of buildings to include new technologies (e.g. solar panels or heat pumps) and siting of new development may alter the setting of heritage assets, or change the appearance or fabric of a historic asset. Negative effects are likely as a result of cumulative developments. However, due to the nature of industrial areas, policies and proposals relating to the retrofitting of industrial buildings to incorporate energy efficiency measures and low carbon or renewable technologies are unlike to significantly affect the setting of heritage assets.

4.68 Negative effects on the historic environment may be further heightened by large scale developments resulting from transport policies and proposals. For example, the development of large scale consolidation centres may result in visual impacts which could affect landscape and cultural heritage, depending on site and setting.

4.69 Additionally, some negative effects could arise because of construction activities relating to the development and improvement of infrastructure. This is likely to be localised and short-term in nature. In many instances, adverse impacts identified through the implementation and construction of infrastructure may be mitigated through a combination of planning mechanisms, including Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) where applicable, appropriate siting and design, local consultation and engagement and on-site management measures.

Landscape and geodiversity

4.70 Both the LULUCF and agricultural sectors are identified as having policies and proposals which are likely to result in significant benefits for landscape. Policies and proposals relating to the creation of woodland and forestry could improve the landscape character, depending on the scale and nature of change. However, if inappropriately designed woodland or forestry may have adverse effects on landscape character. Potential negative impacts on the landscape can be mitigated if woodland creation schemes are appropriately designed and delivered to meet the requirements of the UK Forestry Standard, and locational requirements set out in local forestry and woodland strategies. Furthermore, policies promoting peatland restoration have the potential to have benefits on landscape character, particularly as peatlands are considered some of Scotland’s most iconic landscapes, and their restoration will restore a sense of 'wildness'.

4.71 Policies and proposals seeking to improve the energy efficiency of buildings and encouraging the uptake of low carbon and renewable energy technologies may have adverse effects on landscape character. In particular, the retrofitting of buildings to include new technologies (e.g. solar panels) and siting of new development may alter the character of the landscape. However, due to the nature of industrial areas, policies and proposals relating to the retrofitting of industrial buildings to incorporate energy efficiency measures and low carbon or renewable technologies are unlikely to significantly affect landscape character in these locations.

4.72 Negative effects on the landscape may be further heightened by large scale developments resulting from transport policies and proposals. For example, the development of large-scale consolidation centres may result in visual impacts which could affect landscape character, depending on site and setting.

4.73 Additionally, some negative effects arise because of construction activities relating to the development and improvement of infrastructure. This is likely to be localised and short-term in nature. In many instances, adverse impacts identified through the implementation and construction of infrastructure may be mitigated through a combination of planning mechanisms, including Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) as applicable, appropriate siting and design, local consultation and engagement and on-site management measures.

Material Assets (Waste, Energy, Transport and Land Use)

4.74 Promoting and encouraging the uptake of low-carbon and renewable energy technologies is a theme that is present within numerous sectors of the Climate Change Plan, notably those relating to electricity, buildings, negative emission technologies and industry. Policies and proposals in these sectors complement each other, supporting the decarbonisation of electricity generation. They promote new technologies ranging from small scale (e.g. solar PV on buildings) to large scale such as commercial-scale renewable energy, CCUS, hydrogen and electricity storage. The implementation of these technologies, and reduced reliance on fossil-fuel derived energy will help reduce pressure on the existing distribution network, and improve the reliability, flexibility and security of electricity supply, having significant positive effects on material assets.

4.75 However, if infrastructure is not adequate to accommodate a larger number of and greater variety of renewable and low carbon technologies, there may be added pressure on the existing network until infrastructure improvements are made. Similarly, transport policies promoting public transport and alternatively fuelled vehicles may require additional infrastructure. If sufficient infrastructure is in place, such as charging point, there may be positive effects on material assets. However, if existing infrastructure is not adequate to meet the needs of development set out in policies and proposals, there may be increased pressure on infrastructure, having adverse effects for material assets.

4.76 Positive effects on material assets are expected to arise from policies and proposals within the waste sector, as they seek to reduce pressure on landfill infrastructure by promoting the circular economy, recycling and behavioural change. However, policies and proposals relating to LULUCF are expected to have mixed effects on material assets as although they may promote and encourage better land management and may improve degraded land through planting of woodland or forestry or peatland, there may be direct conflicts of land use. For example, loss of agricultural land for woodland, forestry or peatland restoration. The policies relating to agriculture may complement those of LULUCF as they generally seek to improve soil quality and fertility which subsequently may result in increased crop production, again having positive effects on material assets. However, as with LULUCF, agricultural policies and proposals may have cumulative adverse effects on material assets arising from conflicts of land use.