Waste markets study: full report

Appendix 2: England Landfill Analysis

Eunomia carried out an analysis of the availability of landfill in England to meet potential additional demand from Scotland following the landfill ban.

Landfill site return data was obtained through a Freedom of Information request to the Environment Agency in October 2018. Data on the remaining volume of landfill capacity at the end of 2017 was also obtained.

Only landfill sites in the North West and North East regions of England were considered logistically feasible disposal routes for Scottish waste – although sites closer to the border are likely to be more attractive from the point of view of haulage costs. Landfill sites for which no data had been received within the last three years and/or with no remaining void space were assumed to be non-operational. Inert and hazardous landfill sites were removed as these sites are unlikely to be suitable disposal routes for residual waste.

Figure 12 shows a total of 30 landfill sites identified as meeting the criteria listed above. Using the Environment Agency's assumed bulk density for non-hazardous waste of 0.83t/m3^[17], the volume of remaining landfill capacity volume was converted into a tonnage capacity estimate. This suggests a total remaining landfill capacity of 22.5 million tonnes in Northern England at the start of 2019.

The 'tonnes removed' figure was deducted from 'tonnes received' to derive assumptions regarding the quantity of waste currently being landfilled at each site. Table 14 shows the total amount landfilled across the sites was 2.9 million tonnes in 2015, decreasing to 2.2 million tonnes in 2016. This then increased to 3.9 million tonnes in 2017.

A detailed analysis of likely future demand for landfill for English waste would be very challenging. However, with limited thermal treatment capacity development under construction in this region, it is prudent to assume that for the time being this will remain relatively constant at an average of ~3 million tonnes based on 2015-17 site return figures.

Table 15 and Table 16 show the timescales within which the remaining capacity of Northern England landfill will be exceeded should Scotland utilise this disposal route within each modelled scenario. This suggests that:

• In scenario 1, where Scotland meets its waste reduction and recycling targets, landfill capacity in Northern England will be exceeded in late 2025.
• In scenario 2, capacity will likely be exceeded in late 2024.

Whist it is unlikely that English landfill will be a logistically and economically viable solution for all Scottish residual waste, there is clearly some capacity to provide an interim solution for waste arising close to the border. However, unless further landfill capacity is developed, this is unlikely to be a viable medium- to long-term solution for Scotland.

Table 14: N. England Landfill Sites

Table 15: Northern England Landfill Capacity - Scenario 1

Table 16: Northern England Landfill Capacity - Scenario 2

Figure 12: N. England Treatment Facilities