Publication - Research and analysis
Waste markets study: full report
Study regarding treatment options for Scottish biodegradable municipal waste.
Appendix 6: Economic Modelling Time Series
Table 26: Scenario 1, Option 1 (Million £)
| Economic Sector | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | 2028/29 | 2029/30 | 2030/31 | Total | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Authorities | -115 | -113 | -108 | -104 | -99 | -98 | -97 | -96 | -95 | -94 | -1,018 | -853 |
| Waste Collectors | -105 | -102 | -98 | -94 | -90 | -89 | -87 | -86 | -84 | -83 | -918 | -770 |
| Haulage | 13 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 104 | 87 |
| Exporters | 22 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 176 | 148 |
| Treatment/ Landfill Providers (Scotland) | 42 | 56 | 53 | 51 | 48 | 47 | 47 | 47 | 46 | 46 | 483 | 403 |
| Environmental Cost | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 52 | 40 |
| Total | -143 | -127 | -122 | -116 | -111 | -107 | -103 | -100 | -97 | -93 | -1,120 | -943 |
Table 27: Scenario 1, Option 2 (Million £)
| Economic Sector | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | 2028/29 | 2029/30 | 2030/31 | Total | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Authorities | -114 | -112 | -107 | -103 | -97 | -96 | -95 | -94 | -93 | -92 | -1,005 | -842 |
| Waste Collectors | -105 | -102 | -98 | -94 | -78 | -76 | -75 | -74 | -72 | -71 | -845 | -713 |
| Haulage | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 76 | 65 |
| Exporters | 30 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 107 | 99 |
| Treatment/ Landfill Providers (Scotland) | 42 | 56 | 53 | 51 | 173 | 170 | 168 | 166 | 164 | 161 | 1,204 | 962 |
| Environmental Cost | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 16 |
| Total | -135 | -119 | -114 | -109 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -443 | -414 |
Table 28: Scenario 2, Option 1 (Million £)
| Economic Sector | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | 2028/29 | 2029/30 | 2030/31 | Total | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Authorities | -132 | -135 | -136 | -136 | -136 | -137 | -137 | -137 | -138 | -138 | -1,362 | -1,132 |
| Waste Collectors | -115 | -115 | -115 | -114 | -114 | -114 | -114 | -115 | -115 | -115 | -1,146 | -953 |
| Haulage | 15 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 133 | 111 |
| Exporters | 24 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 220 | 184 |
| Treatment/ Landfill Providers (Scotland) | 51 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 73 | 73 | 698 | 577 |
| Environmental Cost | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 73 | 57 |
| Total | -157 | -143 | -142 | -140 | -139 | -137 | -134 | -132 | -130 | -128 | -1,382 | -1,156 |
Table 29: Scenario 2, Option 2 (Million £)
| Economic Sector | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | 2028/29 | 2029/30 | 2030/31 | Total | NPV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Authorities | -131 | -134 | -135 | -135 | -133 | -134 | -134 | -134 | -135 | -135 | -1,340 | -1,114 |
| Waste Collectors | -115 | -115 | -115 | -114 | -98 | -98 | -98 | -99 | -99 | -99 | -1,050 | -879 |
| Haulage | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 89 | 76 |
| Exporters | 33 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 114 |
| Treatment/ Landfill Providers (Scotland) | 51 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 231 | 231 | 231 | 232 | 232 | 233 | 1,654 | 1,317 |
| Environmental Cost | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 46 | 37 |
| Total | -147 | -134 | -133 | -131 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 14 | -477 | -449 |
Contact
Email: eqce.cezw@gov.scot
There is a problem
Thanks for your feedback