XX Commonwealth Games Visitor Study: Economic Impact Report

C. Annex C - Impact of Individual Events

Calculation of Impacts

Economic impacts of event visitor spend were estimated by using the Scottish Government Input Output Framework as follows. TNS and Optimal Economics produced estimates of expenditure by different groups of event visitor broken down by location and category of spending. These "spend vectors" were run through the Scottish Government Input-Output Framework as a bespoke visitor spend vector. Location of direct impacts was thus been determined by TNS and Optimal Economics on the basis of information from the Games Visitor Survey while the location of indirect and induced impacts have been calculated by Scottish Government using industry employment weights reflecting the distribution employment in different industries across Scotland.

The impacts of Clyde-sider volunteers and media spend in terms of scale and location were estimated by Optimal Economics.

Gross Impacts

Table C.1, Table C.2and Table C.3 show the results for Gross Impact (corresponding to Table 3.2 in the main report) for Glasgow 2014 events alone, for Festival 2014 and for the Merchant City Festival.

The impact of volunteers and media was related specifically to the games and so the impact of the £9.7 million of expenditure from those sources has been included in results in Table C.1.

Table C.1 Glasgow 2014 - Gross Economic Impact - All Visitor Group Spend

Area	Output Impact £ Million	GVA Impact £ million	Employment Impact (FTE)
Glasgow
Direct	89.5	44.4	1,541
Indirect	7.6	4.3	83
Induced	6.2	3.5	57
Total	103.3	52.2	1,681
Clyde Valley
Direct	6.7	3.1	117
Indirect	9.3	4.2	86
Induced	6.9	3.4	60
Total	22.9	10.7	263
Glasgow and Clyde Valley
Direct	96.2	47.3	1,659
Indirect	16.9	8.5	170
Induced	12.9	6.9	116
Total	116.0	62.7	1,945
Rest of Scotland
Direct	30.6	15.2	572
Indirect	33.1	15.4	311
Induced	23.8	12.8	221
Total	87.5	43.4	1,104
All Scotland
Direct	126.8	62.1	2,231
Indirect	49.0	23.8	481
Induced	36.6	19.6	337
Total	212.4	105.5	3,049

Source: Expenditure data from Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Note: Due to rounding some figures may not sum to totals.

Table C.2 Festival 2014 - Gross Economic Impact - Event Visitors

Area	Output Impact £ Million	GVA Impact £ million	Employment Impact (FTE)
Glasgow
Direct	76.7	37.9	1,323
Indirect	6.5	3.4	66
Induced	4.9	2.6	46
Total	88.1	43.9	1,435
Clyde Valley
Direct	4.8	2.4	89
Indirect	7.5	3.6	70
Induced	5.2	2.9	49
Total	17.6	8.9	208
Glasgow and Clyde Valley
Direct	81.5	40.3	1,412
Indirect	14.0	7.0	136
Induced	10.1	5.5	95
Total	105.6	52.8	1,643
Rest of Scotland
Direct	22.9	11.5	427
Indirect	27.3	12.4	259
Induced	20.1	10.6	187
Total	70.4	34.4	873
All Scotland
Direct	104.4	51.8	1,838
Indirect	41.4	19.4	395
Induced	30.2	16.1	282
Total	176.0	87.2	2,515

Source: Expenditure data from Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Note: Due to rounding some figures may not sum to totals.

Table C.3 Merchant City Festival - Gross Economic Impact - Event Visitors

Area	Output Impact £ Million	GVA Impact £ million	Employment Impact (FTE)
Glasgow
Direct	56.9	28.2	985
Indirect	4.5	2.3	46
Induced	3.3	1.8	31
Total	64.8	32.3	1,062
Clyde Valley
Direct	3.1	1.5	57
Indirect	5.2	2.5	48
Induced	3.6	2.0	34
Total	11.9	6.0	140
Glasgow and Clyde Valley
Direct	60.0	29.7	1,042
Indirect	9.5	4.8	94
Induced	9.9	3.8	65
Total	79.4	38.3	1,201
Rest of Scotland
Direct	12.0	6.0	223
Indirect	18.9	8.6	178
Induced	13.9	7.3	129
Total	44.7	21.8	531
All Scotland
Direct	72.0	35.7	1,265
Indirect	28.6	13.4	272
Induced	20.9	11.1	194
Total	121.4	60.1	1,732

Source: Expenditure data from Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Note: Due to rounding some figures may not sum to totals.

In terms of gross impact, attendees at the Games and at Festival 2014 has broadly equivalent impacts, though the additional impact of volunteers and media was significant in the case of the Games. The impact of the Merchant City Festival was less, though still significant. Around 66% of the gross impact occurred in Glasgow with under 10% in the rest of the Clyde Valley. The impact of the Merchant City Festival was the most concentrated with 70% of the impact in Glasgow.

Impact Net of Displacement - Scotland

The next set of tables and figures set out the analysis of impact net of displacement at the Scottish level for individual events. The adjustment for displacement has, as explained above, done by excluding spending by Scottish residents.

Figure C.1 shows the total impact of Glasgow 2014, Festival 2014 and the Merchant City Festival on Scottish output while Figure C.2 presents employment data and Figure C.3 presents GVA impact figures.

Figure C.1 Economic Impact Net of Displacement Scotland - Output (£millions)

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Optimal Economic calculations.

Figure C.2 Economic Impact Net of Displacement Scotland - Employment (FTE in 2014)

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Figure C.3 Economic Impact Net of Displacement Scotland - GVA (£millions)

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Impact Net of Displacement - Glasgow and Clyde Valley

The next set of tables and figures set out the analysis of impact net of displacement for individual events.

Figure C.4 to Figure C.6show the total impact of Glasgow 2014, Festival 2014 and the Merchant City Festival on economic output while Figure C.7to Figure C.9presents employment impact figures and Figure C.10to Figure C.12figures for GVA.

Impacts from spend by volunteers and media are included in the Glasgow 2014 impacts.

Figure C.4 Economic Impact Net of Displacement Glasgow - Output (£millions)

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Figure C.5 Economic Impact Net of Displacement Clyde Valley - Output (£millions)

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Figure C.6 Economic Impact Net of Displacement Glasgow and Clyde Valley - Output (£millions)

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Figure C.7 Economic Impact Net of Displacement Glasgow - Employment (FTE in 2014)

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Figure C.8 Economic Impact Net of Displacement Clyde Valley - Employment (FTE in 2014)

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Figure C.9 Economic Impact Net of Displacement Glasgow and Clyde Valley - Employment (FTE in 2014)

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Figure C.10 Economic Impact Net of Displacement Glasgow - GVA (£millions)

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Figure C.11 Economic Impact Net of Displacement Clyde Valley - GVA (£millions)

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Figure C.12 Economic Impact Net of Displacement Glasgow and Clyde Valley - GVA (£millions)

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

In relation to both employment and GVA it is the scale of the direct impact which results in impacts being much higher in Glasgow than in the Clyde Valley.

Impact Net of Deadweight

The final step in this analysis is to adjust for deadweight by which we mean the presence (and spending) of people who would have been in Glasgow even had there been no Glasgow 2014/Festival 2014.

Figure C.13 presents an analysis of responses to a survey questions concerning the role of each event in the decision to visit Glasgow. As may be seen, Glasgow 2014 had a particularly strong impact on visitor decisions while the Merchant City Festival and Festival 2014 had lesser but still significant influence.

Figure C.13 Importance of Event in Decision to Visit Glasgow (% of Respondents Giving that Answer)

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

The procedure adopted has been to assess each event separately using a score for deadweight calculated as follows:

• Persons who stated that the event was the sole reason for the visit are scored with a weight of 1
• Persons who stated that the event was a very important reason are scored 0.5
• Persons who stated that the event was a fairly important reason are scored 0.25
• Others are scored 0

These weights are used to calculate the proportion of spend which is additional (not deadweight) for each event. As the responses were different for Scottish and non-Scottish visitors, two proportions are then calculated. These proportions are applied to the non-displaced impact figures reported above.

Net Impacts

Table C.4, Table C.5and Table C.6 show the net impact of visitor spend based on the visitor survey for Glasgow and Clyde Valley and Scotland.

Table C.4 Individual Events - Net (Additional Non-Displaced) Economic Impact - Output (£million) in 2014

Area	Non-Displaced Impact	Deadweight Factor	Net Additional Output Impact
Glasgow
Glasgow 2014 (All Visitor Groups)	88.9	0.77	70.3
Festival 2014 (Event Visitors)	66.5	0.3	20.0
Merchant City Festival (Event Visitors)	46.1	0.32	14.8
Clyde Valley
Glasgow 2014 (All Visitor Groups)	19.9	0.77	15.5
Festival 2014 (Event Visitors)	14.8	0.3	4.4
Merchant City Festival (Event Visitors)	9.7	0.32	3.1
Glasgow and Clyde Valley
Glasgow 2014 (All Visitor Groups)	108.8	0.77	85.8
Festival 2014 (Event Visitors)	81.3	0.3	24.4
Merchant City Festival (Event Visitors)	55.2	0.32	17.9
Scotland
Glasgow 2014 (All Visitor Groups)	158.4	0.89	142.0
Festival 2014 (Event Visitors)	113.3	0.14	15.9
Merchant City Festival (Event Visitors)	73.9	0.18	13.3

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Note: Due to rounding not all figures sum to totals.

Table C.5 Individual Events - Net (Additional Non-Displaced) Economic Impact - Employment (FTE in 2014)

Area	Non-Displaced Impact	Deadweight Factor	Net Additional Employment Impact
Glasgow
Glasgow 2014 (All Visitor Groups)	1,413	0.77	1,125
Festival 2014 (Event Visitors)	1,080	0.3	324
Merchant City Festival (Event Visitors)	776	0.32	249
Clyde Valley
Glasgow 2014 (All Visitor Groups)	243	0.77	189
Festival 2014 (Event Visitors)	181	0.3	54
Merchant City Festival (Event Visitors)	120	0.32	38
Glasgow and Clyde Valley
Glasgow 2014 (All Visitor Groups)	1,656	0.77	1,314
Festival 2014 (Event Visitors)	1,261	0.3	378
Merchant City Festival (Event Visitors)	896	0.32	287
Scotland
Glasgow 2014 (All Visitor Groups)	2,303	0.89	2,065
Festival 2014 (Event Visitors)	1,643	0.14	230
Merchant City Festival (Event Visitors)	1,060	0.18	191

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Note: Due to rounding not all figures sum to totals.

Table C.6 Individual Events - Net (Additional Non-Displaced) Economic Impact - GVA (£million)

Area	Non-Displaced Impact	Deadweight Factor	Net Additional GVA Impact
Glasgow
Glasgow 2014 (All Visitor Groups)	47.6	0.77	34.3
Festival 2014 (Event Visitors)	33.1	0.3	9.9
Merchant City Festival (Event Visitors)	23.2	0.32	7.4
Clyde Valley
Glasgow 2014 (All Visitor Groups)	9.5	0.77	8.1
Festival 2014 (Event Visitors)	7.5	0.3	2.3
Merchant City Festival (Event Visitors)	5.0	0.32	1.6
Glasgow and Clyde Valley
Glasgow 2014 (All Visitor Groups)	57.1	0.77	42.4
Festival 2014 (Event Visitors)	40.6	0.3	12.2
Merchant City Festival (Event Visitors)	28.2	0.32	9.0
Scotland
Glasgow 2014 (All Visitor Groups)	78.8	0.89	70.6
Festival 2014 (Event Visitors)	56.3	0.14	7.8
Merchant City Festival (Event Visitors)	35.7	0.18	6.4

Source: Games Visitor Survey. Scottish Government Input-Output Model 2011 v4.06. Calculations by Optimal Economics.

Note: Due to rounding not all figures sum to totals.

The Glasgow 2014 figures we include the impacts of volunteer and media spending as discussed above. These involve minimal deadweight. For this reason in the Glasgow 2014 rows the net impact is more than the gross impact times the deadweight factor.