Young Person's Guarantee - employment and education landscape: current evidence - overview

Footnotes

1 Resolution Foundation (2020), 'Young Workers in the coronavirus crisis.'

2 Resolution Foundation (2021), 'Uneven Steps: Changes in youth unemployment and study since the onset of Covid-19.; The Sutton Trust (2020)

3 Institute for Fiscal Studies (2020), 'A bad time to graduate'

4 Resolution Foundation (2020), 'Class of 2020: Education leavers in the current crisis'

5 Resolution Foundation (2021), 'Uneven Steps: Changes in youth unemployment and study since the onset of Covid-19.; The Sutton Trust (2020), 'Lost Learning, Lost Earnings'; Institute for Fiscal Studies (2021), 'Inequalities in education, skills and incomes in the UK: The implications of the Covid-19 pandemic'; and Institute for Employment Studies (2021), 'An Unequal Crisis: The impact of the pandemic on the youth labour market'.

6 Scottish Government (2021), 'Young Person's Guarantee Key Performance Indicators'

7 Chapter 2 uses April 2020-March 2021 data on employment, unemployment and economic inactivity as it provides a useful view of the first full year of the pandemic. However, more recent, July 2020-June 2021, data is available. It can be viewed through Scottish Government (2021). 'Labour Market Statistics for young people (16-24 years): Scotland and UK – July 2020 to June 2021'.

8 It is worth noting that National Records Scotland (NRS) projections do not attempt to predict the impact of political circumstances such as Brexit. If recent changes have not yet affected population estimates or trend data that the projections are based on, they will not affect the projections.

9 A more detailed definition of 'NEET' is: "anybody who is not enrolled on an education course, doing an apprenticeship, on a government supported employment or training programme, working or studying towards a qualification, had job-related training or education in the last four weeks or in some form of paid work, including part-time employment."

10 Scottish Government and SDS are working together to try to expand the APM to 16-24 year olds.

11 It may be that many of the 19 year olds identified as unconfirmed have taken up employment, however, it has not been possible to confirm this as SDS does not currently have any regular administrative data feed of employment information. SDS continues to work with the Scottish Government and HMRC to make progress in obtaining employment related data.

12 More detailed time series data tables can be found from SDS (2021), 'Annual Participation Measure 2021 Supplementary tables'.

13 More detailed data on participation rates by local authorities can be found from the SDS (2021), 'Annual Participation Measure 2021 Supplementary tables'.

14 Individuals who are neither employed nor unemployed under the International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition are classed as economically inactive. There are many reasons why people may be inactive and not considered an active part of the labour supply: they may have a long-term illness or disability, be studying for a qualification, staying at home to look after their family, or have retired.

15 Scottish Government (2021), 'Labour Market Statistics for Young People (16 to 24 year olds): Scotland and UK – April 2020 to March 2021'.

16 Since 2014, disability has been defined based on the Equality Act 2010 definition. This GSS harmonised definition is based on self-reported health conditions which have lasted 12 months or more which limit ability to carry out day-to day activities a little or a lot.

17 Resolution Foundation (2021), 'Uneven Steps: Changes in youth unemployment and study since the onset of Covid-19.'

18 Institute for Employment Studies (2021), 'An Unequal Crisis: The impact of the pandemic on the youth labour market.'

19 Institute for Fiscal Studies (2021), 'Inequalities in education, skills and incomes in the UK: The implications of the Covid-19 pandemic'.

20 The Pre-crisis measure is the average of the 2nd and 3rd quarters of years 2015-2019 and the crisis period covers the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2020.

21 Unemployment and economic inactivity data is not available for 16 to 24 year olds by SIMD status.

22 Scottish Government (2021), 'Public sector employment in Scotland: statistics for first quarter 2021'.

23 Scottish Government (2021), 'Scotland's Labour Market – People, Places and Regions – Statistics from the Annual Population Survey 2020/21'.

24 Living Wage data from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) is only available for those aged 18 and over.

25 Vagni and Breen (2021): 'Earnings and Income Penalties for Motherhood: Estimates for British Women Using the Individual Synthetic Control Method'

26 Scottish Government (2019), 'A fairer Scotland for women: gender pay gap action plan'.

27 There are three separate publications on University Graduates, HE college graduates and Modern Apprenticeship completers.

28 More up to date, 2018/19 tax year data, exists for university graduates, however, for comparative purposes 2016/17 data is used in the text. Female median earnings in 2018/19 were £2,600 lower than male median earnings five years after graduation for university graduates (£27.400 compared to £29,900).

29 This data relates to earnings in the 2016/17 tax year of 2010/11 university graduates, 2012/13 HE college graduates and 2011/12 Modern Apprenticeship completers.

30 There are some elements of the Guarantee that may provide some support below the age of 16, however, these numbers are expected to be small.

31 Scottish Government (2020), 'Pupil census: Supplementary Statistics'.

32 Scottish Government (2021), 'Summary Statistics for Attainment and Initial Leaver Destinations, No. 3: 2021 Edition'.

33 See Scottish Government (2021), Summary Statistics for Attainment and Initial Leaver Destinations, No. 3 2021 Edition - Supplementary Tables for further time series data on the school leaver cohort by stage of leaving.

34 Scottish Government (2021), 'Summary Statistics for Attainment and Initial Leaver Destinations, No. 3: 2021 Edition'.

35 The pandemic may have affected local partnerships' ability to track some school leavers through home visits which is likely to have affected the proportion of 2018/19 and 2019/20 school leavers with an unknown follow-up status.

36 See Scottish Government (2021), 'Summary Statistics for Follow-up Leaver Destinations, No.3 2021 Edition – Supplementary Tables' for time series data on positive school leaver destinations by SIMD.

37 The figures in this section refer to children who were looked after within the year unless otherwise specified.

38 Scottish Government (2021), 'Education Outcomes for Looked After Children – 2019/20'

39 Time series data on initial and follow up destinations for looked after children can be found in the Scottish Government (2021), 'Tables and Charts for Education Outcomes for Looked After Children 2019/20'.

40 Further data on school leaver destinations by Local Authority can be found in the Scottish Government (2021), 'Summary Statistics for Follow-up Leaver Destinations, No.3 2021 Edition – Supplementary Tables'.

41 The gender balances were very similar in both FE and HE courses.

42 Data on this can be found in the Background Tables and Charts.

43 HESA does not record ethnicity for non-UK domiciled students, which is why the focus here is on UK domiciled students.

44 Underlying data for these proportions can be found in the Background Tables and Charts.

45 HESA's science based grouping includes subjects like medicine, nursing and agriculture that may not be included in other definitions of STEM.

46 Most of the participants in the SCQF level 4/5 pilot programme are under the age of 16.

47 Completers are those who did not leave their study early. Full achievers are those who achieved the full FA qualification.

48 Cohorts 4 and 5 still have pupils in training and therefore completion and achievement rates for these cohorts are not included here.

49 Where pupils either do not complete the course, or complete but do not achieve their full FA qualification, they are certificated, through SQA, for any of the components they have achieved.

50 Due to relatively small numbers of FA completers and achievers so far, data is not available with equality breakdowns.

51 Further data on FA SIMD breakdowns can be found in the SDS (June 2021), Foundation Apprenticeships Progress Report.

52 Further data on FA STEM participation can be found in the SDS (June 2021), Foundation Apprenticeships Progress Report.

53 Further data on MA starts by SCQF levels can be found in the SDS (2021), 'Modern Apprenticeship Supplementary Tables, Quarter 4, 2020/21'.

54 SDS (2021), 'Modern Apprenticeships Statistics, Quarter 4, 2020/21'.

55 Further data on MA STEM starts can be found in the background tables and charts.

56 Further data on achievement rates by SCQF levels can be found in the background tables and charts.

57 Data tables for MA redundancies and re-entrants can be found in the Background Tables and Charts.

58 SDS (2016), 'Modern Apprenticeship Intermediate Outcomes'.

59 SDS (2021), 'Graduate Apprenticeships Progress Report'

60 There were less than 5 GAs self-identifying as minority ethnic in this age group in 2017/18.

61 Further data on gender balances in GA frameworks can be found in the Background Tables and Charts.

62 Female representation in this Framework is at 100%, this is likely due to very low participation (less than 5).

63 Further data on GA achievers can be found in the Background Tables and Charts.

64 The 2014 figures are employers who report offering formal apprenticeships. This data does not apply specifically to young people aged 16 to 24.