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Publication - Progress report

Young Person's Guarantee: update report March 2023

Published
6 March 2023
From
Cabinet Secretary for Education and Skills, +6 more … Director for Children and Families, Director of Economic Development, Director of Equality, Inclusion and Human Rights, Director for Lifelong Learning and Skills, Director-General Economy, Director-General Education and Justice
Directorate
Lifelong Learning and Skills Directorate, +7 more … Children and Families Directorate, Public Service Reform Directorate, Economic Development Directorate, Education Reform Directorate, Equality, Inclusion and Human Rights Directorate, Local Government and Housing Directorate, Tackling Child Poverty and Social Justice Directorate
Topic
Business, industry and innovation, Children and families, Communities and third sector, +6 more … Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Scotland, Economy, Education, Equality and rights, Public sector, Work and skills
ISBN
9781805255666

The report highlights progress over the 2 years of the Young Person’s Guarantee and also sets out the direction of travel going forward.

View supporting documents Supporting documents

Annex D: KPI Overview

The Measurement and Evaluation Framework was created to monitor the overarching outcome of the Young Person's Guarantee, namely to reduce unemployment rates for 16-24 year olds to pre-pandemic levels: Measurement and Evaluation Framework - Scottish Government website

At the time of this report we do not have a full suite of data for the data collected through the Young Person's Guarantee's Interim Measures (Interim Measures - Scottish Government website). What we do have, demonstrates that interventions such as the Young Person's Guarantee have worked towards mitigating against youth unemployment rates returning to post-recession highs ensuring that young people have been supported to enter a positive destination. The Young Person's Guarantee Key Performance Indicators can be found here: (KPIs - Scottish Government website)

Overarching KPI: Reduce the unemployment rate for young people aged 16-24 (excluding those in full-time education) to pre-covid levels by the end of the current parliamentary term

Youth unemployment rate (excluding those in full-time education(%))

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec datasets, ONS

Notes:

1. Rates are rounded to one decimal place.

2. Rates are based on unrounded numbers.

3. Estimates are for those aged 16 to 24.

4. Data is subject to sampling variation and is not seasonally adjusted.

Pre-covid unemployment rate for 16-24 year olds in Scotland was at an all-time low, with the unemployment rate for young people (excluding those in full-time education) at 8.1% in 2019. For 2020 this figure is estimated at 12.9%. It has decreased to 10.2% in 2021, 2.8 percentage points (pp) lower than 2020, but still 2.1 pp higher than the 2019 figure.

KPI 1: Skills Alignment: Increase the proportion of 18-24 year olds with qualifications at SCQF level 5 and above.

Proportion of those aged 18-24 with qualifications at SCQF level 5 or above

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec datasets, ONS

Notes:

1. Rates are rounded to one decimal place.

2. Rates are based on unrounded numbers.

3. Estimates are for those aged 16 to 24.

4. Data is subject to sampling variation and is not seasonally adjusted.

The proportion of 18-24 year olds with qualifications at SCQF level 5 or above has decreased over the last year from 93.7% in 2020 to 93.5% in 2021 (a decrease of 0.3 pp). It has, however, increased from 92.4% in 2019 (pre-pandemic).

The proportion of 16-64 year olds with qualifications at SCQF level 5 or above has increased from 88.4% in 2019 to 90.9% in 2021.

KPI 2: Employer Engagement: Increase the proportion of employers recruiting directly from education.

Proportion of those aged 18-24 with qualifications at SCQF level 5 or above

Source: Scottish Employer Perspectives Survey, 2021

The proportion of employers recruiting directly from education has increased from 30% in 2019 to 35% in 2021.

KPI 3: Equalities: Increase the employment rate for young people aged 16 to 24 with disabilities

Proportion of those aged 18-24 with qualifications at SCQF level 5 or above

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec datasets, ONS

Notes:

1. Rates are rounded to one decimal place.

2. Rates are based on unrounded numbers.

3. Estimates are for those aged 16 to 24.

4. Data is subject to sampling variation and is not seasonally adjusted.

5. Employment rates use the total 16 to 24 population as denominator.

6. The definition of disability is based on the 2010 Equality Act definition. This definition is based on self-reported health conditions. A condition will have lasted 12 months or more and have a substantial impact on a person's ability to carry out normal day-to-day activities.

The employment rate for 16-24 year olds who are Equality Act Disabled decreased from 42.0% in 2019 to 32.1% in 2020 and then increased to 37.1% in 2021, but this is still below the 2019 rate.

The pattern is similar for those 16-24 year olds who are not Equality Act Disabled.

The gap between those who are Equality Act Disabled and those who are Not Disabled has seen no improvement since 2015.

KPI 4: Fair Work: Increase the proportion of young people aged 16 to 24 in secure employment

Proportion of those aged 18-24 with qualifications at SCQF level 5 or above

The gap between young people and all age groups for the proportion in Secure Employment showed no improvement between 2019 and 2020 (gap of 36.2 pp and 37.1 pp respectively). However, in 2021 the gap reduced to 30.0 pp.

For the 16-24 year old age group, the proportion in secure employment increased from 29.8% in 2020 to 40.8% in 2021 (an increase of 11.0 pp).

KPI 5 data has not been included as the data pre-dates the Young Person's Guarantee.

Contact

Email: kathryn.simpson@gov.scot

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