Statistical Bulletin - Reconviction Rates in Scotland: 2007-08 and 2008-09 Offender Cohorts

This publication provides detailed analyses of two year reconviction rates for offenders up to the 2007-08 cohort, as well as one year reconviction rates up to the 2008-09 cohort.


5 Comparing reconviction rates across Community Justice Authorities

5.1 Reconviction rates have historically been used as a Scottish Government National Indicator and they are also included in the Scottish Policing Performance Framework. As such, they are commonly used to rank performance across different jurisdictions, such as Community Justice Authorities ( CJAs), local authorities or police force areas. However, there is an inherent problem in using this approach since it implicitly assumes that a difference in reconviction rates reflects a 'real' difference between organisations. In reality, all systems within which these organisations operate, no matter how stable, will produce variable outcomes in the normal run of events. The questions we need to answer are therefore: Is the observed variation more or less than we would normally expect? What are the possible explanations for outcomes which show significant deviations from the norm?

5.2 In this respect, it is better to use a method of comparison that takes account of inherent variability [4]. The funnel plot is a technique used in statistical process control and provides a simple way of determining whether differences are likely to be due to spurious or common-cause variation, rather than some special cause [5]. Common-cause variation is the variation inherent within any system, for instance, variations in healthcare outcomes due to differences in case-mix and client characteristics, and can never be completely eliminated. Special-cause variation cannot be attributed to the inherent variability within a system and requires further explanation to identify its cause.

5.3 In effect, a process control chart allows organisations to be split into three groups: those with outcomes which are as expected (the majority of organisations in a stable system), and those with outcomes which are significantly higher or lower compared to the norm. Such differences can provide a useful start in terms of thinking about potential differences in the context within which these organisations operate, such as population composition or differences in practice, which may explain some of the difference in outcomes.

5.4 Table 13 provides the reconviction rates for each CJA area and Chart 8 shows these reconviction rates against the number of offenders. The plot takes into account the increased variability of the smaller authorities, where a small increase in the number of reconvictions may lead to a large percentage change in the reconviction rates. Rates for CJAs which lie inside the funnel are not significantly different from the national rate, and we can then usefully focus on possible explanations for rates which deviate significantly from the national figure. In this case, the cut-off level for statistical significance is 95% (or two standard deviations from the mean): if there were no difference between CJAs apart from what could reasonably attribute to random variation, we would expect that 5 per cent of the authorities would lie outside the funnel.

5.5 Chart 8 shows that Tayside and Fife & Forth Valley have higher reconviction rates than one might expect, while Lothian & Borders has lower rates than expected. Whilst this is useful for highlighting that there are practical differences in reconviction rate between each CJA, it does not allow us to identify if this disparity is due to a variation in case-mix or a variation in practice. Case-mix refers to the differences in offender characteristics (such as age, gender, crime, disposal).

5.6 Chart 9 provides the standardised reconviction rates [6] against the observed number of offenders minus expected number of offenders. In this plot, the differences attributable to the case-mix have been removed [7]. This provides us with an ability to analyse any variation which is due to practice alone. The data indicates that none of the CJAs have a higher or lower than expected reconviction rate due to the way they carry out their practices. Since all CJAs are within the funnel it suggests that any differences could be attributable to a variation in the characteristics of the offenders between authorities.

Chart 8 One year reconviction rate by CJA: 2007-08 cohort

Chart 8 One year reconviction rate by CJA: 2007-08 cohort

Chart 9 Standardised one year reconviction rate by CJA: 2007-08 cohort

Chart 9 Standardised one year reconviction rate by CJA: 2007-08 cohort

Table 1 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates: 1997-98 to 2008-09 cohorts
(see note 1)

Overall cohort Number of offenders Reconviction rate (2) Reconviction frequency rate (2)
1997-98 53,453 31.8 61.5
1998-99 49,133 31.8 61.8
1999-00 44,202 31.3 58.9
2000-01 41,568 31.8 59.7
2001-02 43,644 32.4 62.8
2002-03 44,854 32.9 63.9
2003-04 46,931 32.7 62.0
2004-05 49,283 32.5 61.1
2005-06 50,247 32.5 60.1
2006-07 53,247 32.4 59.7
2007-08 52,983 31.2 57.1
2008-09 49,613 31.0 57.9

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1
'3. Figures for previous cohorts may differ from previously published figures as updated information is fed into the Scottish Offenders Index.

Table 2 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates, by age
(see note 1)

Age: under 21 Number of offenders Reconviction rate2 Reconviction frequency rate (2)
1997-98 13,792 42.4 93.4
1998-99 12,983 42.1 92.1
1999-00 11,783 41.0 87.4
2000-01 11,007 41.5 87.3
2001-02 11,230 41.2 89.1
2002-03 11,060 41.3 88.4
2003-04 11,318 40.6 81.7
2004-05 11,656 39.4 79.5
2005-06 12,111 41.4 80.1
2006-07 12,680 40.6 78.2
2007-08 12,395 38.2 71.8
2008-09 10,754 37.4 70.3
Age: 21 to 25
1997-98 12,185 34.1 63.1
1998-99 10,762 34.4 65.9
1999-00 9,449 34.5 63.9
2000-01 8,992 35.5 66.1
2001-02 9,476 36.5 71.3
2002-03 9,927 37.1 73.8
2003-04 10,332 36.4 72.0
2004-05 10,587 36.5 70.6
2005-06 10,578 35.2 67.9
2006-07 11,235 35.3 66.3
2007-08 11,124 34.2 62.6
2008-09 10,097 33.8 63.1
Age: 26 to 30
1997-98 9,596 30.3 54.4
1998-99 8,670 30.4 54.3
1999-00 7,450 31.5 55.1
2000-01 6,943 31.2 56.2
2001-02 7,167 33.3 61.8
2002-03 7,127 34.5 64.0
2003-04 7,252 35.6 65.6
2004-05 7,521 34.6 65.9
2005-06 7,580 34.8 64.1
2006-07 8,005 34.7 64.7
2007-08 8,244 33.5 62.5
2008-09 7,984 34.3 65.9
Age: over 30
1997-98 17,880 22.8 39.7
1998-99 16,718 22.9 39.5
1999-00 15,520 21.8 36.1
2000-01 14,626 22.4 36.6
2001-02 15,771 23.1 39.3
2002-03 16,740 24.1 41.7
2003-04 18,029 24.4 42.5
2004-05 19,519 25.3 43.2
2005-06 19,978 24.8 42.3
2006-07 21,327 25.2 43.4
2007-08 21,220 24.7 43.4
2008-09 20,778 25.2 46.0

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1

Table 3 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates, males by age
(see note 1)

Age: under 21 Number of offenders Reconviction rate2 Reconviction frequency rate (2)
1997-98 12,083 44.1 97.5
1998-99 11,286 43.9 95.6
1999-00 10,201 42.6 90.2
2000-01 9,602 42.6 89.3
2001-02 9,784 42.7 92.2
2002-03 9,622 42.9 91.6
2003-04 9,812 42.2 84.2
2004-05 10,165 41.1 82.8
2005-06 10,486 43.3 84.4
2006-07 10,986 42.3 81.8
2007-08 10,672 39.7 74.9
2008-09 9,230 39.1 73.7
Age: 21 to 25
1997-98 10,561 34.8 62.4
1998-99 9,214 35.0 65.8
1999-00 8,036 35.2 65.1
2000-01 7,694 36.1 67.5
2001-02 8,092 37.2 72.2
2002-03 8,446 37.8 75.0
2003-04 8,780 37.0 72.4
2004-05 8,938 36.8 70.8
2005-06 8,997 35.9 68.1
2006-07 9,580 35.9 66.5
2007-08 9,413 34.9 62.8
2008-09 8,545 34.7 63.5
Age: 26 to 30
1997-98 8,148 30.7 54.0
1998-99 7,346 30.8 55.0
1999-00 6,305 31.8 55.1
2000-01 5,819 31.8 57.3
2001-02 6,009 34.1 63.7
2002-03 5,970 35.4 66.1
2003-04 5,989 36.6 67.7
2004-05 6,251 34.8 66.7
2005-06 6,222 35.5 65.3
2006-07 6,637 35.2 66.5
2007-08 6,832 34.1 63.8
2008-09 6,565 34.9 67.1
Age: over 30
1997-98 14,929 23.5 41.1
1998-99 13,991 23.6 40.7
1999-00 13,013 22.5 37.4
2000-01 12,160 23.2 38.4
2001-02 13,083 23.7 40.4
2002-03 13,742 24.6 42.6
2003-04 14,879 25.0 43.7
2004-05 16,081 25.9 44.2
2005-06 16,423 25.7 44.0
2006-07 17,505 25.8 44.7
2007-08 17,408 25.3 44.9
2008-09 17,045 25.8 46.9

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1

Table 4 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates, females by age
(see note 1)

Age: under 21 Number of offenders Reconviction rate2 Reconviction frequency rate (2)
1997-98 1,724 29.6 64.0
1998-99 1,705 29.9 68.6
1999-00 1,594 30.3 68.5
2000-01 1,409 33.9 73.8
2001-02 1,461 31.2 67.1
2002-03 1,442 30.2 67.1
2003-04 1,509 30.2 65.3
2004-05 1,491 28.4 57.5
2005-06 1,628 28.6 52.1
2006-07 1,695 29.5 54.5
2007-08 1,727 28.6 52.7
2008-09 1,525 26.5 49.5
Age: 21 to 25
1997-98 1,636 29.6 67.3
1998-99 1,558 30.3 66.4
1999-00 1,425 30.5 56.8
2000-01 1,306 31.9 57.5
2001-02 1,388 32.3 65.9
2002-03 1,487 33.2 67.0
2003-04 1,555 33.1 69.4
2004-05 1,653 34.8 69.1
2005-06 1,584 31.1 66.8
2006-07 1,656 31.5 65.7
2007-08 1,712 30.4 61.7
2008-09 1,553 28.3 60.5
Age: 26 to 30
1997-98 1,456 28.0 56.7
1998-99 1,331 27.6 49.9
1999-00 1,152 29.6 54.9
2000-01 1,131 28.0 50.0
2001-02 1,161 28.9 52.0
2002-03 1,162 29.9 53.1
2003-04 1,265 30.8 55.5
2004-05 1,271 33.1 61.8
2005-06 1,362 31.6 58.0
2006-07 1,372 32.1 55.7
2007-08 1,414 30.6 56.0
2008-09 1,419 31.2 60.6
Age: over 30
1997-98 2,959 19.4 32.7
1998-99 2,735 19.5 33.5
1999-00 2,520 18.1 29.5
2000-01 2,473 18.4 27.8
2001-02 2,697 20.5 33.9
2002-03 3,006 21.8 37.4
2003-04 3,154 21.3 36.9
2004-05 3,444 22.4 38.4
2005-06 3,558 20.9 34.6
2006-07 3,824 22.3 37.4
2007-08 3,813 21.9 36.6
2008-09 3,733 22.1 41.4

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1

Table 5 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates, by disposal
(see note 1)

Discharged from custody Number of offenders Reconviction rate (2) Reconviction frequency rate (2)
1997-98 6,123 48.4 103.6
1998-99 5,818 49.1 109.1
1999-00 5,741 46.3 99.2
2000-01 5,576 47.4 99.6
2001-02 5,942 48.0 105.7
2002-03 6,011 49.9 112.6
2003-04 5,874 50.2 111.0
2004-05 6,109 48.0 105.9
2005-06 6,218 47.5 103.6
2006-07 6,889 48.7 106.0
2007-08 7,033 46.9 100.5
2008-09 7,395 46.7 96.0
Community Service Order
1997-98 3,043 32.0 59.0
1998-99 2,752 31.1 55.7
1999-00 2,493 28.8 49.5
2000-01 2,510 29.4 51.9
2001-02 2,505 29.2 51.4
2002-03 2,700 29.0 51.0
2003-04 2,513 27.7 47.0
2004-05 2,795 30.4 53.4
2005-06 3,271 29.8 51.2
2006-07 3,296 30.0 50.2
2007-08 3,500 28.1 46.3
2008-09 3,727 26.6 42.5
Probation Order
1997-98 3,042 47.2 111.8
1998-99 3,198 48.2 115.9
1999-00 3,101 46.3 101.0
2000-01 3,139 46.6 106.0
2001-02 3,588 48.4 110.8
2002-03 3,865 49.0 107.9
2003-04 3,909 46.7 99.7
2004-05 4,256 46.5 98.1
2005-06 4,488 45.3 92.8
2006-07 4,314 44.7 90.4
2007-08 4,602 43.0 83.6
2008-09 5,122 43.2 86.0
Restriction of Liberty Order3
1997-98 0 - -
1998-99 24 58.3 154.2
1999-00 50 66.0 176.0
2000-01 54 59.3 159.3
2001-02 54 70.4 155.6
2002-03 212 53.3 117.5
2003-04 353 57.8 125.5
2004-05 413 57.4 119.9
2005-06 486 52.1 115.8
2006-07 510 51.2 105.1
2007-08 533 50.7 101.5
2008-09 567 46.4 93.3
Drug Treatment and testing Order4
1997-98 0 - -
1998-99 0 - -
1999-00 1 - -
2000-01 36 58.3 130.6
2001-02 95 74.7 211.6
2002-03 143 75.5 240.6
2003-04 201 79.1 221.4
2004-05 231 78.4 219.9
2005-06 275 69.1 184.0
2006-07 314 73.9 198.1
2007-08 326 70.2 192.3
2008-09 363 63.9 162.3
Monetary disposal
1997-98 32,897 29.5 54.2
1998-99 29,552 29.4 53.3
1999-00 25,584 28.9 51.8
2000-01 23,817 28.9 50.9
2001-02 24,864 29.0 52.1
2002-03 24,845 29.1 51.7
2003-04 26,686 29.5 51.5
2004-05 27,456 29.2 50.4
2005-06 27,032 29.3 49.5
2006-07 28,496 29.0 48.6
2007-08 27,492 27.5 46.1
2008-09 22,837 26.4 45.9
Other disposal
1997-98 8,348 23.0 42.3
1998-99 7,789 21.5 38.5
1999-00 7,232 21.7 36.6
2000-01 6,436 22.2 37.1
2001-02 6,596 22.5 39.6
2002-03 7,078 23.0 40.7
2003-04 7,395 22.1 38.9
2004-05 8,023 22.3 39.2
2005-06 8,477 23.7 40.7
2006-07 9,428 23.6 41.7
2007-08 9,497 23.2 40.6
2008-09 9,602 23.0 42.3

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1
'3. Restriction of Liberty Orders were not available nationally until 2002.
'4. DTTOs were rolled out to Glasgow, Fife and Aberdeen between 1999 and 2002, Edinburgh, Renfrewshire, Inverclyde and Tayside in 2002-03 and has been available to almost every court in Scotland since 2005-06.
'5. See section 6.4.11 for definitions of the notation used in this table.

Table 6 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates, by crime type
(see note 1)

Violent
crime
Number of offenders Reconviction rate (2) Reconviction frequency rate (2)
1997-98 11,447 25.4 42.5
1998-99 10,857 23.6 39.5
1999-00 10,273 22.9 36.8
2000-01 9,815 23.9 39.0
2001-02 10,452 24.1 40.0
2002-03 11,121 24.8 42.4
2003-04 11,824 25.4 43.0
2004-05 12,656 25.6 44.1
2005-06 13,487 25.4 42.3
2006-07 14,151 26.2 44.4
2007-08 14,474 25.5 42.7
2008-09 14,132 25.9 42.6
Sexual crime
1997-98 546 10.3 17.0
1998-99 493 13.8 23.5
1999-00 461 9.1 13.0
2000-01 428 13.3 23.1
2001-02 435 11.5 17.7
2002-03 459 12.0 18.5
2003-04 459 9.8 14.8
2004-05 539 10.8 16.3
2005-06 516 11.0 16.3
2006-07 508 15.6 22.2
2007-08 542 13.3 20.3
2008-09 639 12.2 18.2
Dishonesty
1997-98 15,228 40.3 89.3
1998-99 14,116 41.5 93.9
1999-00 12,679 43.2 95.5
2000-01 11,641 44.0 97.2
2001-02 11,723 45.9 106.4
2002-03 11,553 46.0 105.4
2003-04 10,855 45.8 103.3
2004-05 10,670 45.9 102.5
2005-06 9,899 46.3 102.1
2006-07 9,993 46.6 103.1
2007-08 9,795 44.6 98.9
2008-09 9,543 44.1 101.3
Criminal damage
1997-98 3,590 28.7 52.4
1998-99 3,329 27.2 48.1
1999-00 2,980 28.5 50.5
2000-01 2,959 28.7 48.2
2001-02 2,984 30.7 53.8
2002-03 3,066 30.5 54.2
2003-04 3,529 29.7 54.9
2004-05 3,640 31.2 55.9
2005-06 3,618 33.0 58.1
2006-07 3,870 32.9 58.9
2007-08 3,891 31.6 54.8
2008-09 3,149 33.3 60.1
Drug offences
1997-98 5,654 26.3 40.1
1998-99 5,321 27.5 42.5
1999-00 4,836 25.5 37.4
2000-01 4,185 26.1 40.3
2001-02 4,691 25.2 40.9
2002-03 4,671 28.0 45.8
2003-04 5,522 29.3 45.3
2004-05 5,770 28.9 45.3
2005-06 5,788 29.4 46.5
2006-07 6,807 28.0 45.0
2007-08 6,574 27.2 42.0
2008-09 5,689 26.5 42.6
Breach of the peace
1997-98 13,708 31.5 58.5
1998-99 12,106 31.2 56.7
1999-00 10,317 29.7 52.0
2000-01 9,757 29.7 51.8
2001-02 10,337 30.3 52.9
2002-03 10,846 30.9 55.6
2003-04 11,426 30.9 55.3
2004-05 12,204 31.0 55.0
2005-06 12,918 31.4 55.3
2006-07 13,638 31.0 53.3
2007-08 13,362 30.1 51.9
2008-09 12,118 29.5 52.0
Other crimes and offences
1997-98 3,280 32.3 65.8
1998-99 2,911 33.8 68.2
1999-00 2,656 30.4 53.5
2000-01 2,783 29.6 50.9
2001-02 3,022 31.2 55.2
2002-03 3,138 32.6 58.4
2003-04 3,316 33.9 59.5
2004-05 3,804 32.0 56.7
2005-06 4,021 32.6 58.4
2006-07 4,280 33.1 58.0
2007-08 4,345 31.3 56.0
2008-09 4,343 30.2 53.2

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1

Table 7 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates, by sentence length
(see note 1)

3 months or less Number of offenders Reconviction rate (2) Reconviction frequency rate (2)
1997-98 2,728 56.6 132.4
1998-99 2,552 59.4 142.8
1999-00 2,537 55.5 127.6
2000-01 2,398 58.0 130.4
2001-02 2,456 58.3 137.5
2002-03 2,641 61.4 149.4
2003-04 2,470 63.0 151.1
2004-05 2,561 61.5 144.2
2005-06 2,722 59.1 136.6
2006-07 3,063 60.8 140.5
2007-08 2,869 59.0 134.4
2008-09 2,360 59.1 135.3
Over 3 months to 6 months
1997-98 1,459 58.0 122.3
1998-99 1,403 57.9 130.9
1999-00 1,331 56.7 123.1
2000-01 1,324 58.0 124.4
2001-02 1,431 57.2 133.2
2002-03 1,379 60.2 137.2
2003-04 1,340 60.0 133.7
2004-05 1,335 57.5 130.9
2005-06 1,365 57.1 131.1
2006-07 1,467 58.1 129.7
2007-08 1,448 58.1 133.6
2008-09 1,894 55.0 116.5
Over 6 months to 2 years
1997-98 979 35.1 62.5
1998-99 856 34.8 60.9
1999-00 890 35.8 64.4
2000-01 820 35.1 63.3
2001-02 934 36.8 65.4
2002-03 863 33.7 60.5
2003-04 936 35.3 66.2
2004-05 983 34.5 65.9
2005-06 969 35.1 62.5
2006-07 1,083 35.6 65.1
2007-08 1,384 36.5 64.2
2008-09 1,745 41.2 71.5
Over 2 years to less than 4 years
1997-98 555 25.8 37.8
1998-99 525 25.1 41.7
1999-00 512 21.1 32.4
2000-01 533 21.8 32.3
2001-02 574 28.0 45.6
2002-03 558 27.8 49.8
2003-04 547 27.4 44.2
2004-05 621 24.6 41.9
2005-06 539 21.9 36.2
2006-07 655 25.5 44.7
2007-08 706 25.1 40.4
2008-09 841 26.3 41.9
Over 4 years
1997-98 402 21.6 31.3
1998-99 482 20.5 27.0
1999-00 471 14.4 17.0
2000-01 501 15.6 17.2
2001-02 547 17.4 23.4
2002-03 570 17.9 22.6
2003-04 581 18.1 22.9
2004-05 609 16.1 19.7
2005-06 623 17.5 21.0
2006-07 621 14.0 16.4
2007-08 626 13.7 16.3
2008-09 555 14.4 18.0

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1

Table 8 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates, by previous convictions
(see note 1 and 2)

No previous convictions Number of offenders Reconviction rate (3) Reconviction frequency rate (3)
1997-98 19,464 16.6 28.5
1998-99 16,951 16.0 27.4
1999-00 14,738 16.3 26.9
2000-01 13,544 17.1 28.2
2001-02 14,511 17.3 29.8
2002-03 14,545 17.4 29.9
2003-04 15,588 17.4 27.8
2004-05 16,082 17.0 28.2
2005-06 16,684 18.5 29.4
2006-07 17,268 16.8 26.1
2007-08 16,853 15.3 23.9
2008-09 15,246 14.7 22.8
1 or 2 previous convictions
1997-98 13,741 27.6 49.4
1998-99 12,340 27.0 46.9
1999-00 10,576 25.7 45.0
2000-01 9,941 26.1 44.8
2001-02 10,077 26.8 47.1
2002-03 10,343 26.9 46.1
2003-04 10,787 27.3 46.8
2004-05 11,179 26.8 44.8
2005-06 11,489 27.1 45.9
2006-07 12,460 28.2 46.9
2007-08 12,140 25.4 39.9
2008-09 10,832 24.1 39.1
3 to 10 previous convictions
1997-98 14,502 42.6 79.9
1998-99 13,771 41.7 78.3
1999-00 12,620 38.7 70.0
2000-01 11,695 38.8 70.1
2001-02 12,162 39.1 73.4
2002-03 12,517 39.3 73.5
2003-04 12,792 38.8 70.9
2004-05 13,457 38.8 68.8
2005-06 13,387 38.2 68.0
2006-07 14,394 38.4 67.7
2007-08 14,605 38.1 66.9
2008-09 13,873 36.3 63.8
Over 10 previous convictions
1997-98 5,746 65.8 156.0
1998-99 6,071 63.3 150.7
1999-00 6,268 60.9 135.4
2000-01 6,388 58.9 130.6
2001-02 6,894 60.2 136.3
2002-03 7,449 60.6 138.6
2003-04 7,764 60.7 137.1
2004-05 8,565 58.9 132.3
2005-06 8,687 57.8 125.4
2006-07 9,125 58.3 128.2
2007-08 9,385 56.7 123.6
2008-09 9,662 57.1 125.9

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. Convictions since start of 1989.
'3. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1

Table 9 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates, by previous custodial convictions
(see note 1 and 2)

No previous convictions Number of offenders Reconviction rate3 Reconviction frequency rate (3)
1997-98 43,280 26.0 46.4
1998-99 38,997 25.5 45.2
1999-00 34,336 24.9 43.1
2000-01 32,019 25.6 44.4
2001-02 33,586 26.0 46.2
2002-03 34,182 26.1 45.8
2003-04 35,814 25.9 44.3
2004-05 37,352 25.7 43.8
2005-06 38,463 26.2 44.2
2006-07 40,719 26.0 43.4
2007-08 40,085 24.4 40.0
2008-09 36,516 23.4 38.8
1 or 2 previous convictions
1997-98 4,717 46.6 96.2
1998-99 4,499 47.2 94.8
1999-00 4,330 44.2 87.4
2000-01 4,052 41.7 80.4
2001-02 4,153 43.3 87.9
2002-03 4,438 45.0 90.0
2003-04 4,566 43.2 85.1
2004-05 4,816 43.4 82.9
2005-06 4,834 43.3 80.8
2006-07 5,068 42.3 80.6
2007-08 5,273 42.0 77.1
2008-09 5,198 41.7 79.8
3 to 10 previous convictions
1997-98 4,158 60.7 133.9
1998-99 4,208 58.4 133.0
1999-00 3,992 57.2 119.5
2000-01 3,976 56.6 118.7
2001-02 4,131 56.5 121.4
2002-03 4,336 56.9 125.9
2003-04 4,486 58.1 124.7
2004-05 4,841 56.4 118.4
2005-06 4,595 55.6 113.6
2006-07 4,996 55.8 114.5
2007-08 5,004 55.7 115.4
2008-09 5,182 54.7 111.5
Over 10 previous convictions
1997-98 1,298 77.0 207.5
1998-99 1,429 75.9 201.9
1999-00 1,544 69.8 173.8
2000-01 1,521 69.4 171.9
2001-02 1,774 70.4 180.1
2002-03 1,898 71.9 187.0
2003-04 2,065 71.4 182.1
2004-05 2,274 68.8 178.0
2005-06 2,355 68.1 171.7
2006-07 2,464 70.1 176.0
2007-08 2,621 66.5 166.0
2008-09 2,717 68.0 171.2

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. Convictions since start of 1989
'3. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1

Table 10 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates, by previous community convictions
(see note 1, 2 and 3)

No previous convictions Number of offenders Reconviction rate4 Reconviction frequency rate4
1997-98 40,410 25.0 44.9
1998-99 35,981 24.4 43.1
1999-00 31,209 23.4 39.9
2000-01 28,826 23.8 40.6
2001-02 29,960 24.1 41.8
2002-03 30,413 24.1 41.8
2003-04 31,743 23.8 39.9
2004-05 32,619 23.6 39.4
2005-06 33,313 23.8 39.2
2006-07 34,917 23.4 38.0
2007-08 34,096 21.7 34.6
2008-09 30,683 20.5 33.1
1 or 2 previous convictions
1997-98 9,474 48.6 100.7
1998-99 9,405 48.2 99.0
1999-00 8,925 45.3 90.1
2000-01 8,538 45.4 88.7
2001-02 9,069 44.8 90.9
2002-03 9,208 45.2 90.4
2003-04 9,431 45.4 89.7
2004-05 10,296 43.6 84.6
2005-06 10,218 43.0 82.4
2006-07 11,044 43.3 81.5
2007-08 11,283 41.6 76.5
2008-09 11,021 40.8 76.0
3 to 10 previous convictions
1997-98 3,494 63.5 144.6
1998-99 3,655 61.3 145.3
1999-00 3,965 60.3 135.3
2000-01 4,065 57.8 128.0
2001-02 4,426 61.0 140.0
2002-03 5,016 61.7 142.3
2003-04 5,492 60.3 135.1
2004-05 6,026 59.5 132.2
2005-06 6,315 58.9 128.1
2006-07 6,816 58.0 128.1
2007-08 7,127 57.7 125.4
2008-09 7,331 57.4 126.1
Over 10 previous convictions
1997-98 75 73.3 233.3
1998-99 92 82.6 247.8
1999-00 103 73.8 196.1
2000-01 139 79.1 233.8
2001-02 189 73.0 220.1
2002-03 217 70.5 214.7
2003-04 265 73.6 209.8
2004-05 342 67.8 174.0
2005-06 401 66.8 158.6
2006-07 470 71.9 169.6
2007-08 477 69.4 182.0
2008-09 578 67.5 166.6

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. Convictions since start of 1989.
'3. Convictions resulting in a Community Service Order, Probation Order, Restriction of Liberty Order or Drug Treatment and Testing Order.
'4. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1

Table 11 One year reconviction rates by offender characteristics: 2007-08 cohort

Index disposal in 2007-08 by age Percentage of Male offenders reconvicted Percentage of Female offenders reconvicted
Number of previous convictions Number of previous convictions
None 1 or 2 3 to 10 Over 10 None 1 or 2 3 to 10 Over 10
All 16 26 38 57 12 24 40 55
under 21 27 44 61 78 20 39 59 73
21 to 25 12 26 45 70 12 27 50 71
26 to 30 9 16 34 62 9 24 40 63
over 30 7 13 27 49 7 17 32 46
Discharged from custody 13 26 44 63 ** 34 43 62
under 21 31 43 64 73 ** ** 67 **
21 to 25 10 29 48 71 ** ** 47 71
26 to 30 ** ** 39 66 ** ** 41 67
over 30 5 14 28 56 ** ** 34 52
Community Service Order 17 26 36 56 8 15 36 54
under 21 25 42 57 80 ** ** ** -
21 to 25 16 24 42 79 ** ** ** -
26 to 30 13 17 28 57 ** ** ** **
over 30 5 9 24 46 ** ** 23 53
Probation Order 30 41 46 58 24 36 48 57
under 21 46 60 65 91 35 54 66 -
21 to 25 21 44 52 74 ** 27 53 80
26 to 30 19 30 36 58 ** 45 40 72
over 30 6 19 36 51 13 24 44 45
Restriction of Liberty Order 37 49 54 64 ** ** 56 **
under 21 38 58 71 77 ** ** ** **
21 to 25 ** ** 56 74 - ** ** **
26 to 30 ** ** ** 64 - ** ** **
over 30 ** ** 42 56 - - - -
Drug Treatment and Testing Order - ** 57 77 ** ** 62 74
under 21 - - ** ** ** ** ** **
21 to 25 - ** 74 88 ** ** ** **
26 to 30 - ** 60 88 - ** ** 85
over 30 - - ** 65 - - ** **
Monetary 16 24 35 51 12 25 38 56
under 21 25 41 56 78 18 39 57 **
21 to 25 12 25 43 66 11 29 52 70
26 to 30 8 16 33 58 10 24 39 58
over 30 7 13 26 45 7 18 32 51
Other 14 20 33 50 11 18 35 47
under 21 23 42 63 91 18 30 42 -
21 to 25 11 23 41 62 13 22 45 69
26 to 30 9 13 35 56 ** 14 38 59
over 30 6 10 22 43 6 13 29 35

1. Convictions since the start of 1989.
2. See Section 6.4.11 of the statistical bulletin for definitions of the notation used in this table.

Table 12 One year reconviction rates by offender characteristics: 2008-09 cohort

Index disposal in 2008-09 by age Percentage of Male offenders reconvicted Percentage of Female offenders reconvicted
Number of previous convictions Number of previous convictions
None 1 or 2 3 to 10 Over 10 None 1 or 2 3 to 10 Over 10
All 16 24 36 57 11 25 36 56
under 21 26 42 59 76 18 35 51 80
21 to 25 12 25 43 68 10 26 43 71
26 to 30 11 16 34 61 7 28 39 59
over 30 7 12 25 51 7 18 30 49
Discharged from custody 15 24 43 64 ** 23 39 63
under 21 32 43 62 75 ** ** ** 83
21 to 25 10 24 47 69 ** ** 41 66
26 to 30 ** 18 37 65 ** ** 33 66
over 30 7 9 28 59 ** ** 37 57
Community Service Order 18 23 34 51 6 22 40 50
under 21 27 39 58 69 ** 50 ** -
21 to 25 15 21 36 67 ** ** ** -
26 to 30 11 13 28 48 ** ** ** **
over 30 7 12 23 45 ** ** 30 **
Probation Order 31 39 44 62 25 39 46 64
under 21 45 62 67 79 35 45 65 **
21 to 25 13 30 54 79 33 41 47 88
26 to 30 23 29 36 63 ** 43 49 61
over 30 9 18 30 56 ** 31 41 56
Restriction of Liberty Order 43 42 45 57 ** 57 ** **
under 21 49 51 63 ** ** ** - -
21 to 25 ** ** 35 78 ** - - -
26 to 30 - ** ** 62 - - - **
over 30 - ** 37 40 ** ** ** **
Drug Treatment and Testing Order ** ** 62 69 ** ** 63 63
under 21 ** ** ** ** ** ** ** -
21 to 25 - - 81 84 - ** ** **
26 to 30 - ** 64 79 - ** ** **
over 30 - - ** 59 ** ** ** 63
Monetary 15 22 33 52 10 22 34 52
under 21 23 38 53 80 17 29 52 **
21 to 25 12 25 41 65 9 23 48 71
26 to 30 11 14 33 57 7 29 34 58
over 30 7 12 25 46 8 17 28 45
Other 13 21 31 49 9 21 31 52
under 21 21 39 56 68 13 32 40 -
21 to 25 11 24 40 58 8 23 36 66
26 to 30 8 14 33 58 8 17 40 57
over 30 7 13 20 43 6 19 22 45

1. Convictions since the start of 1989.
2. See Section 6.4.11 of the statistical bulletin for definitions of the notation used in this table.

Table 13 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates, by CJA and LA: 2007-08 cohort
(see note 1)

Community Justice Authority Local Authority (2) Number of offenders Reconviction rate (3) Reconviction frequency rate (3)
Scotland (4) 52,981 31.2 57.1
Fife & Forth Valley All 5,993 33.5 63.2
Clackmannanshire 584 37.3 78.1
Falkirk 1,582 35.6 67.8
Fife 2,787 31.2 57.8
Stirling 1,040 34.4 62.1
Glasgow All 11,061 31.9 60.0
Glasgow City (5) 11,061 31.9 60.0
Lanarkshire All 5,818 30.3 52.3
North and South Lanarkshire (6) 5,818 30.3 52.3
Lothian & Borders All 7,861 27.1 47.7
East Lothian 539 26.7 42.1
Edinburgh and Midlothian (7) 5,117 26.8 48.8
Scottish Borders 1,029 29.1 48.7
West Lothian 1,176 26.9 44.4
Northern All 7,270 31.4 59.0
Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire (8) 3,501 33.5 68.2
Eilean Siar 225 31.6 50.2
Highland 2,496 29.4 50.4
Moray 759 30.7 52.3
Orkney Islands 94 27.7 53.2
Shetland Islands 195 24.1 41.5
North Strathclyde (9) All 4,662 31.9 54.3
Argyll & Bute 623 29.1 44.1
East and West Dunbartonshire (10) 1,316 33.1 57.8
East Renfrewshire and Renfrewshire (11) 1,864 32.9 57.7
Inverclyde 859 30.2 49.0
South West Scotland All 6,235 31.5 55.8
Dumfries & Galloway 1,597 31.1 57.2
East, North and South Ayrshire (12) 4,638 31.7 55.3
Tayside All 4,075 33.7 67.0
Angus 916 29.7 56.3
Dundee City 2,098 37.5 77.9
Perth & Kinross 1,061 29.5 54.8
Unknown All 6 - -
Unknown (13) 6 - -

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. Approximate areas are based on the court of the offenders index conviction. Some Sheriff Court boundaries include more than one local authority area.
'3. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1
'4. Includes High Court and Remit to High Court.
'5. Includes the Stipendiary Magistrates court.
'6. North and South Lanarkshire (Airdrie, Hamilton and Lanark Sheriff Courts).
'7. City of Edinburgh and Midlothian (Edinburgh Sheriff Court).
'8. Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire (Aberdeen, Banff, Stonehaven and Peterhead Sheriff Courts).
&Bute are also served by Glasgow Sheriff Court as well as the Sheriff Courts in North Strathclyde. However, since this analysis is based on an approximation of court areas, East Dunbartonshire and Argyll & Bute have been included with North Strathclyde whilst Glasgow Sheriff Court is included with Glasgow CJA area.
'10. East and West Dunbartonshire (Dumbarton Sheriff Court).
'11. Renfrewshire and East Renfrewshire (Paisley Sheriff Court).
'12. East, North and South Ayrshire (Kilmarnock and Ayr Sheriff Courts).
'13. There were six offenders for which the court of the index conviction was unknown.
'14. See Section 6.4.11 of the statistical bulletin for definitions of the notation used in this table.

Table 14 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates, by CJA and LA: 2008-09 cohort
(see note 1)

Community Justice Authority Local Authority (2) Number of offenders Reconviction rate (3) Reconviction frequency rate (3)
Scotland (4) 49,612 31.0 57.9
Fife & Forth Valley All 5,831 32.1 57.9
Clackmannanshire 616 37.0 70.1
Falkirk 1,489 32.5 60.3
Fife 2,850 30.4 53.2
Stirling 876 33.4 60.8
Glasgow All 10,040 32.7 63.5
Glasgow City (5) 10,040 32.7 63.5
Lanarkshire All 5,194 30.7 53.9
North and South Lanarkshire (6) 5,194 30.7 53.9
Lothian & Borders All 7,464 27.1 50.0
East Lothian 609 27.3 49.6
Edinburgh and Midlothian (7) 4,820 27.4 52.4
Scottish Borders 855 27.5 47.0
West Lothian 1,180 25.7 42.5
Northern All 7,326 30.4 58.6
Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire (8) 3,979 32.1 65.2
Eilean Siar 162 25.9 38.3
Highland 2,148 27.8 48.9
Moray 789 30.3 60.1
Orkney Islands 100 24.0 41.0
Shetland Islands 148 29.7 48.6
North Strathclyde (9) All 4,273 29.3 52.6
Argyll & Bute 586 27.0 42.5
East and West Dunbartonshire (10) 1,282 31.7 59.4
East Renfrewshire and Renfrewshire (11) 1,621 30.2 55.5
Inverclyde 784 25.5 43.2
South West Scotland All 5,903 31.3 55.2
Dumfries & Galloway 1,609 28.5 53.1
East, North and South Ayrshire (12) 4,294 32.4 56.0
Tayside All 3,570 35.8 74.2
Angus 859 32.6 67.5
Dundee City 1,746 39.8 85.5
Perth & Kinross 965 31.5 59.7
Unknown All 11 54.5 81.8
Unknown (13) 11 54.5 81.8

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. Approximate areas are based on the court of the offenders index conviction. Some Sheriff Court boundaries include more than one local authority area.
'3. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1
'4. Includes High Court and Remit to High Court.
'5. Includes the Stipendiary Magistrates court.
'6. North and South Lanarkshire (Airdrie, Hamilton and Lanark Sheriff Courts).
'7. City of Edinburgh and Midlothian (Edinburgh Sheriff Court).
'8. Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire (Aberdeen, Banff, Stonehaven and Peterhead Sheriff Courts).
&Bute are also served by Glasgow Sheriff Court as well as the Sheriff Courts in North Strathclyde. However, since this analysis is based on an approximation of court areas, East Dunbartonshire and Argyll & Bute have been included with North Strathclyde whilst Glasgow Sheriff Court is included with Glasgow CJA area.
'10. East and West Dunbartonshire (Dumbarton Sheriff Court).
'11. Renfrewshire and East Renfrewshire (Paisley Sheriff Court).
'12. East, North and South Ayrshire (Kilmarnock and Ayr Sheriff Courts).
'13. There were 11 offenders for which the court of the index conviction was unknown.
'14. See Section 6.4.11 of the statistical bulletin for definitions of the notation used in this table.

Table 15 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates by police force: 2007-08 cohort
(see note 1)

Police Force of Index Conviction Number of offenders Reconviction rate (2) Reconviction frequency rate (2)
All 52,981 31.2 57.1
Central 3,256 35.2 67.1
Dumfries & Galloway 1,628 30.8 56.5
Fife 2,827 31.0 57.2
Grampian 4,289 32.9 65.1
Lothian & Borders 7,612 27.6 48.7
Northern 3,023 29.1 49.7
Strathclyde 26,234 31.4 56.3
Tayside 4,107 33.5 66.5
Unknown (3) 5 ** **

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1
'3. There were five offenders for which the police force of the index conviction was unknown.
'4. See Section 6.4.11 of the statistical bulletin for definitions of the notation used in this table.

Table 16 One year reconviction frequency rates and one year reconviction rates by police force: 2008-09 cohort
(see note 1)

Police Force of Index Conviction Number of offenders Reconviction rate (2) Reconviction frequency rate (2)
All 49,612 31.0 57.9
Central 3,032 33.5 61.9
Dumfries & Galloway 1,635 28.3 52.5
Fife 2,907 30.4 52.9
Grampian 4,783 31.7 64.1
Lothian & Borders 7,229 27.5 50.9
Northern 2,576 27.6 47.7
Strathclyde 23,841 31.6 58.1
Tayside 3,608 35.6 73.6
Unknown (3) 1 ** **

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1
'3. There was one offender for which the police force of the index conviction was unknown.
'4. See Section 6.4.11 of the statistical bulletin for definitions of the notation used in this table.

Table 17 Two year reconviction frequency rates and two year reconviction rates: 1997-98 to 2007-08 cohorts
(see note 1)

Overall cohort Number of offenders Reconviction rate (2) Reconviction frequency rate (2)
1997-98 53,453 42.6 110.0
1998-99 49,133 42.5 107.7
1999-00 44,202 42.9 108.1
2000-01 41,568 43.8 112.9
2001-02 43,644 44.2 115.9
2002-03 44,854 45.3 118.4
2003-04 46,931 44.7 115.1
2004-05 49,283 44.6 113.1
2005-06 50,247 44.9 112.9
2006-07 53,247 44.1 108.7
2007-08 52,983 42.4 104.3

'1. The number of offenders that are reconvicted, and the number of reconvictions, are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.
'2. The definition of reconviction frequency rate and reconviction rate is described in section 6.2.1
'3. Figures for previous cohorts may differ from previously published figures as updated information is fed into the Scottish Offenders Index.

Table 18 Two year reconviction rates by index crime: 2007-08 cohort

Index crime 2007-08 Total number (=100%) Percentage reconvicted within 2 years for:
Any crime Violent Crime Crimes of indecency Crimes of dishonesty Criminal damage Other Serious violent crime Serious crime
All offenders 52,981 43 18 1 15 6 33 4 8
Violent Crime
Serious assault and homicide 1,536 35 17 * 7 5 25 5 9
Robbery 443 63 32 1 27 10 46 14 22
Simple Assault 12,230 37 20 * 8 6 28 3 6
Other Violence 263 37 16 2 12 5 27 3 6
Crimes of indecency
Sexual Assault 164 22 5 4 5 1 14 1 4
Other indecency 402 22 8 7 3 2 15 3 5
Prostitution 104 79 21 48 28 2 58 7 11
Crimes of dishonesty
Housebreaking 1,035 68 21 * 48 9 45 7 19
Theft OLP 507 64 21 * 43 9 44 6 13
Theft of motor vehicle 545 56 21 * 34 10 40 5 13
Shoplifting 3,897 68 18 1 52 5 46 5 10
Other Theft 1,877 51 16 1 33 6 35 4 10
Fraud 970 22 5 * 13 1 13 1 3
Other Dishonesty 964 40 12 * 25 4 27 3 10
Criminal damage
Fireraising 164 47 23 1 13 13 33 4 7
Malicious & reckless conduct 3,727 43 22 1 10 11 32 4 7
Other
Handling offensive weapons 2,609 44 17 * 13 6 36 4 10
Crimes against public justice 1,406 44 15 1 13 4 35 4 10
Drugs 6,574 40 10 * 11 3 33 3 8
Breach of peace 13,362 42 19 1 9 6 34 3 6
Other crime 182 42 25 1 5 5 36 4 5
Other offences 20 35 20 * 10 * 15 * 5

1. See Section 6.4.11 of the statistical bulletin for definitions of the notation used in this table.
2. A more detailed breakdown of the crimes for which the cohort are reconvicted are omitted from the bulletin for clarity. They are included in the additional datasets which accompany this bulletin.

Table 19 Individuals given police disposals by disposal type, 2008-09
(see note 1)

Total number (=100%) Percentage given a non-court (2) disposal within:
6 months 1 year
Individuals 50,511 17.0 25.3
ASBFPN 38,856 19.3 28.5
Formal Adult Warning 6,758 12.1 18.1
Restorative Justice Warning 2,175 5.1 8.7
Other Police Warnings 279 19.0 25.4
Warning Letter 2,443 5.0 8.9

'1. These figures are derived from a dataset which is independent of the dataset on court convictions and therefore do not include court convictions. In future we will investigate ways of incorporating the non-court disposals with the court convictions.
'2. Includes any non-court disposal, and therefore could include COPFS disposals as well as police disposals.

Table 20 Individuals given COPFS disposals by disposal type, 2008-09
(see note 1)

Total number (=100%) Percentage given a non-court (2) disposal within:
6 months 1 year
Individuals 52,030 12.5 19.9
Fiscal Fine 29,811 16.0 25.6
Fiscal Fixed Penalty 16,944 5.3 8.8
Fiscal Combined Fine with Compensation 1,148 16.3 24.1
Fiscal Compensation 1,634 17.6 25.6
Fiscal Fixed Penalty (Pre- SJR) 2,493 14.3 20.9

'1. These figures are derived from a dataset which is independent of the dataset on court convictions and therefore do not include court convictions. In future we will investigate ways of incorporating the non-court disposals with the court convictions.
'2. Includes any non-court disposal, and therefore could include police disposals as well as COPFS disposals.

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