Local Area Labour Markets in Scotland - Statistics from the Annual Population Survey 2012

Section 1: People in Work

Country level analysis

Improving participation in Scotland's labour market is a key driver in meeting the Scottish Government's overarching Purpose of increasing sustainable economic growth.

The latest trends in Scotland's labour market are monitored monthly using the rolling quarterly Labour Force Survey (LFS) and data can be accessed on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) website¹.

Scotland entered recession in Quarter 3 of 2008, two quarters later than the UK economy. Scotland subsequently returned to growth in Quarter 4 of 2009, one quarter later than the UK. However, growth has remained slow since, with the employment rate continuing to deteriorate through Q1 of 2010, before starting a gradual recovery through to the second quarter of 2011. However, the recovery has been weak, with interspersed periods of contraction, which continue to impact the labour market.

Analysis of the latest headline trends, updated monthly based on the LFS, is available from: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Labour-Market/AnalyticalPapers

The APS remains the best source for local area labour market trends, as the sample size on quarterly LFS is too small to be used to monitor trends within small sub-groups and within the local authority areas of Scotland.

Figure 1: 16+ working population by employment status, Scotland, 2012

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, ONS

Figure 1 gives an overview of the composition of those aged 16 and over who were resident in Scotland and in employment during January to December 2012.

Local area and sub-group analysis

Employment Rate

Figure 2: Employment rates across Local Authority areas, Scotland 2004-2012

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, ONS

Based on the APS, the employment rate (based on those aged 16-64 years old) in Scotland decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 70.6% over the year, while the rate in the UK increased by 0.6 percentage points. Since 2008, the rate in Scotland has decreased by 2.9 percentage points, a larger decrease than the 1.5 percentage points seen in the UK.

Across the local authority areas of Scotland in 2012:

• The highest employment rates were seen in Orkney Islands, Aberdeenshire and Shetland Islands (81.3%, 79.9% and 79.7% respectively)
• The lowest rates were seen in Glasgow City, North Ayrshire and Dundee City (59.7%, 61.7% and 65.2% respectively)
• There are some signs of a geographic trend, with local authority areas in the north generally fairing best, and those in western central belt and south west of Scotland generally fairing worst.

Over the year:

• Employment rates increased in 17 out of 32 local authority areas in Scotland.
  • The largest increases were in Eilean Siar², Renfrewshire and South Ayrshire (up 7.7, 4.7 and 3.9 percentage points respectively)
  • The largest decreases were in Glasgow City, Stirling and Dundee City (down 4.1, 3.8 and 3.2 percentage points respectively)

Since 2008:

• Employment rates have decreased in all but 2 local authority areas in Scotland.
  • Increases were only seen in South Lanarkshire and North Lanarkshire (up 1.3 and 0.3 percentage points respectively). These two areas both saw decreases in excess of 4,000 people between 2007 and 2008 indicating that they may have seen the impacts of the recession earlier than most other areas of Scotland.
  • The largest decreases were in North Ayrshire, Stirling, Dumfries and Galloway and Shetland Islands (down 7.2, 6.6, 6.3 and 6.3 percentage points respectively)

Table 1 in Annex A gives the employment rate for the population aged 16 to 64 in Scotland's local authorities for 2008, 2011 and 2012. A time-series back to 2004 can be downloaded from the web-tables at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Labour-Market/Local-Authority-Tables

or from Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics at: http://www.sns.gov.uk/

Chart 1: Employment rates (16-64) by local authority, Scotland, change
since 2008

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, ONS

Cohesion

The APS is used to measure progress against the Government's Cohesion target, which aims to narrow the gap in participation between Scotland's best and worst performing regions by 2017. Further information on this and other purpose targets and indicators that use the APS to track their progress is available in Annex B and also from the Scotland Performs website at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/scotPerforms

The employment rate in Scotland varies considerably between local authority areas. The difference between the 3 best areas and the 3 worst performing local authority areas was on a downward trend between 2004 and 2008. Between 2008 and 2009 the gap increased. Between 2009 and 2011 the gap had been reducing slowly but has increased in 2012 by 2.8 percentage points. Over the past year the employment rate in Glasgow decreased by 4.1 percentage points, which had a relatively large impact on the overall employment rate of the three worst performing areas, due to its size.

Analysis by gender

Figure 3: Employment rates by gender for Scotland and UK

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, ONS

Figure 3 compares employment rates for males and females in 2012, along with change over both the year and since 2008

• The employment rate for males has decreased more in Scotland than in the UK since the start of the recession in 2008.
• In 2008, the employment rate for males in Scotland (at 78.8%) was 0.9 percentage points higher than in the UK (77.9%), but in 2012 it was 1.2 percentage point lower.
• The employment rate for females has also decreased more in Scotland than in the UK since the start of the recession.
• However, the employment rate for females in Scotland has generally remained higher than in the UK, and in 2012 was 1.3 percentage points higher, although the gap has narrowed since 2008.

The areas with the highest male employment rates in Scotland in 2012 were Orkney Islands, Aberdeen City and Moray (88.1%, 87.2% and 82.6% respectively). The areas with the lowest male employment rates were Glasgow City, Inverclyde and Dundee City (62.2%, 65.2% and 66.2% respectively),

The areas with the highest female employment rates in 2012 were Shetland Islands, Orkney Islands, and South Lanarkshire (78.6%, 74.1% and 73.0% respectively). The areas with the lowest female employment rates were North Ayrshire, Glasgow City and Clackmannanshire (55.1%, 57.2% and 60.1% respectively),

Over the year:

• The employment rate for males in Scotland reduced by 0.5 percentage points to 74.6%, while females saw a 0.3 percentage point increase in their employment rate, to 66.8%.
• The employment rate for males increased in 17 local authority areas, but decreased in 15. Females saw their employment rate increase in 20 local authority areas, with 11 areas seeing decreases, and one remaining unchanged.
• Looking at the areas with the largest decreases in overall employment rate, in Glasgow City and Dundee City the changes were driven by reductions in the male employment rate (down 8.3 and 6.9 percentage points respectively). However, in Stirling the reduction was mainly due to a decrease of 5.4 percentage points in the female employment rate.

Since 2008:

• Employment rates for both males and females in Scotland have both reduced since 2008, although the decrease for males was larger (at 4.2 percentage) than that for females (down 1.6 percentage points).
• The employment rate for males increased in just one local authority (Aberdeenshire), decreasing in the remaining 31. Females saw their employment rate increase in 6 local authority areas, with 26 areas seeing decreases.
• The increases in overall employment rate seen in South Lanarkshire and North Lanarkshire were due to female employment rate rising in these areas (up 4.3 and 4.1 percentage points respectively) outweighing decreases in the male rate in these areas.
• In North Ayrshire, Stirling, Dumfries and Galloway and Shetland Islands, which saw the largest decreases in overall employment rate, larger reductions than the national average were seen in both their male and female employment rates.

Employment levels and rates by gender for 2004 to 2012 are provided in the web tables and via Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics.

Analysis by age group

Figure 4: Employment rates by age and gender, Scotland

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, ONS

Figure 4 compares the employment rates across age groups and gender in Scotland for 2012 and shows change since the start of the 2008 recession.

The lowest employment rates are seen by those aged 16-24, 50-64 and 65+.

16-24 year olds are more likely than other age groups to be in full-time education, whereas those in the 50-64 and 65+ age groups are more likely to be retired or long-term sick or disabled.

Over the year:

• All age groups in Scotland saw no or small increases in their employment rates (between 0.0 and 1.2 percentage points) except for those aged 16-24, who saw a reduction of 1.4 percentage points in their employment rate.
• Those aged over 65 saw the largest increase over the year, at 1.2 percentage points.
• The 16-64 rate decreased marginally over the year as it does not include the increase seen in the over 65 age group.
• Due to the small sample sizes in many local authority areas when looking at employment rate split by age group, variability can be high and reliability of the estimates can be low. These estimates should be used with caution, but may provide longer term indications of movement when examined over several years. Statistically significant³ changes seen over the year were:
• o The decrease for 16-24 year olds in Glasgow City (down 15.2 percentage points)
• o The increases for 16-24 year olds in Angus and Renfrewshire (up 14.0 and 11.9 percentage points respectively)
• o The increase for 25-34 year olds in West Lothian (up 8.2 percentage points)

Since 2008:

• The employment rate for all age groups in Scotland decreased, except for those aged 65+, who saw a 1.9 percentage point increase in their rate. 16-24 year olds saw the largest decrease (down 7.5 percentage points), while the 25-34, 35-49 and 50-64 age groups saw decreases of 2.2, 1.7 and 1.3 percentage points respectively.
• Across all age groups, except older workers (50+), the changes in employment rate since 2008 are larger for males than for females as illustrated in Figure 4. This may indicate a greater degree of stability in women's employment or that males (or the jobs they hold) react faster to changes in labour market conditions.
• Due to the small sample sizes in many local authority areas when looking at employment rate split by age group, variability can be high and reliability of the estimates can be low. These estimates should be used with caution, but may provide longer term indications of movement when examined over several years. Statistically significant⁴ changes seen since 2008 were:
• o The decreases for 16-24 year olds in East Ayrshire, Glasgow City, North Ayrshire and Stirling (down 17.8, 17.5, 14.4 and 12.5 percentage points respectively)
  • The decreases for 25-34 year olds in East Ayrshire and Fife, (down 11.2 and 10.7 percentage points respectively)
  • The decreases for 35-49 year olds in Clackmannanshire, Dundee City, and North Ayrshire (down 16.5, 7.8 and 8.5 percentage points respectively)
  • The increase for 35-49 year olds in Orkney Islands (up 8.3 percentage points)
  • The decrease for 50-64 year olds in Stirling (down 9.3 percentage points)

Further information for the 16-24 year old group is given in the Youth employment section below.

Employment levels and rates by age for 2011 are provided in Table 2 in Annex A, with full time series data from 2004 to 2011 available in the web tables and via Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics.

Youth Employment (16-24 year olds)

Estimates of youth employment, unemployment and activity in Scotland are released on a monthly basis by the ONS. Secondary analysis from the Scottish Government and a link to the primary ONS regional analysis can be found on the Statistical Briefing section of the Labour Market Statistics section of the Scottish Government website:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Labour-Market/AnalyticalPapers#Youth Unemployment Publications and Briefing Papers

These estimates are based on rolling quarterly LFS data. Due to relatively small sample sizes the LFS estimates cannot be broken down to give reliable youth employment estimates by local authority, occupation or industry. However, it is possible to produce this analysis using data from the APS.

The youth employment rate in Scotland decreased by 1.4 percentage point over the year; from 54.6% in 2011 to 53.2% in 2012. In the UK, the youth employment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point over the year. to 49.7%. The youth employment rate in Scotland was 3.6 percentage points higher than in the UK in 2012

Figure 5: Youth Employment across Scotland and compared to UK

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, ONS

The largest decreases in youth employment rate over the year were seen in Glasgow City, Stirling and Moray

• In Glasgow this is being driven by a large increase in the number of inactive students aged 16-24, up 11,000 from 24,000 to 35,000, which has increased the inactivity rate for 16-24 years in Glasgow from 35.6% to 49.7% over the year
• A similar effect has also been seen in Stirling, where the number of inactive students aged 16-24 has increased by 1,000 from around 4,000 to 5,000, which has increased the inactivity rate for 16-24 years in Stirling from 36.0% to 43.7% over the year
• It is not possible to perform a similar analysis for Moray due to the small sample sizes and changes for many of the inactive groups over the year

Note that in some local authorities there is a large student population which may be expected to lead to higher inactivity among 16-24 year olds and hence lower employment (and unemployment). However, it is important to note that 34.0% of full-time students in Scotland were also in employment in 2012 (down 2.0 and 6.5 percentage points over the year and since 2008 respectively). This is higher than the percentage in the UK as a whole, where 26.1% of full-time students were also in employment (down 0.8 and 6.1 percentage points over the year and since 2008 respectively). Due to sample size limitations it is not possible to look at local authority employment rates by enrolment in full-time education.

Analysis by disability

Figure 6: Employment rates (16-64) for those with a disability, Scotland

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, ONS

Figure 6 shows how the employment rate for disabled people compared with the overall Scotland rate across age groups and gender during 2012 in Scotland. Note that there are several discontinuities in the questions relating to disability⁵, which make comparisons to data prior to 2010 less robust.

The employment rate for people aged 16-64 with a disability decreased by 0.6 percentage points from 46.3% in 2011 to 45.6% in 2012, a larger decrease than that seen for the 16-64 population as a whole (down 0.1 percentage point). Over the year there has been a shift out of employment and into unemployment for disabled people.

There is considerable variation in the employment rate for people with a disability at local authority area level as shown in Chart 2. The employment rate varies from 31.2% in Dundee City to 71.2% in Orkney Islands.

Chart 2: Employment rates (16-64) for people with a disability, Scotland, 2012

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec

Analysis by qualification level

Figure 7: Employment (16-64) by qualification level, Scotland

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec

There is a strong link between educational attainment and employability. As shown in Figure 7, employment rates in Scotland for those whose highest qualification was HNC/HND or above (SVQ 4 and above) during 2012 were almost double those whose highest qualifications were General Standard Grade or lower (Below SVQ level 2) and just under 13 percentage points higher than those whose highest qualifications were Higher, A-Level or Credit Standard Grade or equivalent
(SVQ 2 or 3).

Examining the trends at Scotland level, it can be seen that:

• Employment rates across all qualifications levels have been generally flat or decreasing since 2007 but…
• The proportion of all those aged 16-64 in employment whose highest qualification was HNC/HND or higher (SVQ level 4 and above) has increased steadily each year since 2004
• Those with SVQ level 4 qualifications and above are now the largest group within the workforce in Scotland, accounting for 44.5% the working population aged 16-64, compared to 41.3% for those whose highest qualifications were Higher, A-Level or Credit Standard Grade or equivalent
  • In the UK as a whole those with Further or Higher Education qualifications accounted for 40.0% of the working population aged 16-64, while those with Higher, A-Level or Credit Standard Grade or equivalent was the largest group accounting for 44.5%.

Employment levels and rates by qualification levels for 2012 are provided in the web tables and via Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics.

Graduates

For the purposes of this chapter, a 'graduate' is defined as a person with a degree-level qualification or higher. The analysis focuses on those aged 25-64 as many young people under 25 may still be working towards a degree level qualification.

Table 3 in Annex A shows graduates as a proportion of those in employment by local authority of residence. Graduates as a proportion of those in employment continued to increase steadily during the economic downturn, from 25.1% in 2008 to 31.1% in 2012.

Interpreting this measure at local authority level is more difficult due to the links with employment and commuting patterns. We would expect to see relatively high percentages in local authorities with high numbers of graduate level jobs (i.e. cities) and in any neighbouring local authorities with good commuting links.

• All the city authorities had relatively high proportions of graduates.
• Edinburgh, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire had the highest proportions of graduates in 2012 (54.1%, 43.8% and 40.6% respectively)
• All authorities have seen their proportion of graduates increase since 2008, with the exception of Orkney Islands, North Lanarkshire and North Ayrshire, which have all seen decreases of up to 3.0 percentage points.
• Orkney Islands, North Ayrshire and North Lanarkshire also had the lowest proportions of graduates in 2012 (12.7%, 16.5% and 17.7% respectively).

Taking account of the trends in Table 3 and the web-table for employment rates by qualification level, it can be seen that:

• The number of graduates in employment has continued to rise each year since 2004. In 2012 there were 686,200 graduates aged 16-64 in employment in Scotland, up 42,700 compared to 2011
• The employment rates for graduates in 2012 was 83.8%, 2.5 percentage points lower than in 2008, but up just under 1.0 percentage point over the year.
• Graduates, similar to those with other qualification level, have found it more difficult to obtain employment since the recession, but graduate employment rates are still higher than those for all other qualification levels.

Modern Apprentices (MA)

In 2012, the employment rate for all adults holding an apprentice qualification (including traditional, trade or MA) in Scotland was 80.9%, 10.3 percentage points higher than the overall rate in Scotland. For those holding a Modern Apprentice qualification, the employment rate was 89.6%, 19.0 percentage points higher than the overall Scotland rate. (Note that due to changes in the LFS questionnaire, this estimate is based only on those who started their apprenticeships in the year 2000 or later)

Occupational Skill Level

The ONS defines occupational skill levels using the following criteria:

Box 1- Occupational Skill Levels

Skill levels are approximated by the length of time deemed necessary for a person to become fully competent in the performance of the tasks associated with a job. This, in turn, is a function of the time taken to gain necessary formal qualifications or the required amount of work-based training.

Low Skill - requires a general education, signalled via a satisfactory set of school-leaving examination grades.

Typical low skill occupations include: elementary personal service occupations (e.g. bar staff, waiters/waitresses) and elementary cleaning occupations.

Medium-Low Skill - requires knowledge provided via a good general education as above, but will typically have a longer period of work-related training or work experience.

Typical medium-low skill occupations include: sales assistant, retail cashier and healthcare/personal service occupations (e.g. auxiliary nurse, home carer).

Medium-High Skill - requires a body of knowledge associated with a period of post-compulsory education but not to degree level.

Typical medium-high skill occupations include: health associate professional occupations (e.g. nurse, midwife, paramedic) and construction trades.

High Skill - requires a degree or equivalent period of relevant work experience.

Typical high skill occupations include: teaching and functional management
(e.g. in finance, marketing, public relations, personnel or information technology).

The occupational skill distribution for each of the key age groups in Scotland is shown in Chart 3.

Chart 3: Occupational skill level by age group, Scotland, 2012

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, ONS

• Distributions are broadly similar across the key age groups (with the exception of that for young people).
• About two-thirds of employees are in medium-low and medium high skilled occupations and a minority (around 11%) in low skilled occupations.
• Distribution for the 16-24 year old age group is different.
  • Relatively lower percentage of employees in high skill jobs (6%)
  • Relatively higher percentage in low (23%) and medium-low skill (47%).

The different distribution for 16-24 year olds may be explained by the fact that it takes time to acquire the relevant qualifications and experience required for high skill occupations.

Chart 4: Occupational skill level by enrolment in full-time education, 16-24 year olds, Scotland, 2012

Comparing the occupations skill distribution for the 16-24 year old age group based on whether they are currently enrolled in full-time education or not highlights some interesting differences.

Chart 4 illustrates the different distribution for the occupational skill level of 16-24 year olds who are enrolled in full-time education compared to those who are not in full-time education. The percentage in low and medium-low skill occupations is higher for those enrolled in full-time education, whilst the percentage in medium high and high skill occupation is lower.

Although the shape of these distributions have been broadly consistent over recent years, examining the 52,300 decrease in employment levels for 16-24 year olds between 2008 and 2012 shows that:

• Almost all of the decrease (48,500) was accounted for by those not in full-time education.
• This was mainly due to decreases in employment in medium-low skill occupations (down 29,800) and medium-high skill occupations (down 18,300), with the other occupational skill groups seeing much lower decreases.
• In contrast, the employment levels for all 16-24 year olds enrolled in full-time education decreased by 3,800 (a reduction of 4% in level) over the same period, with the main change being a 5,700 decrease in those employed in low-skill occupations, with employment levels in medium-low and medium high skill occupations increasing slightly and high-skill employment levels remaining almost unchanged.

Work Patterns

The 2008 recession and subsequent slow recovery has changed the working patterns of many in employment in Scotland.

• In 2012 72.1% of people in employment (aged 16+) were working full time⁶, compared to 75.3% in 2008 (down 3.2 percentage points). The proportion in part-time employment has risen from 24.7% in 2008 to 27.9% in 2012.
• The number of males working full-time in Scotland was just over 1.11 million. The proportion of males in full-time employment was down by 0.3 percentage points over the year to 86.6%, and was down 3.4 percentage points since 2008
• The number of females working full-time in Scotland was just under 665,000. The proportion of females in full-time employment in 2012 was 56.4%, down by 0.6 percentage points over the year and 2.6 percentage points since 2008.
• Glasgow City, Scottish Borders and Stirling have seen the largest decreases in their proportions of full-time workers since 2008 (down by 7.3, 6.0 and 5.5 percentage points respectively)
• Clackmannanshire and Midlothian have seen increases in their proportion in full-time work since 2008 (up 6.7 and 1.2 percentage points respectively). All other authority areas have seen decreases since 2008.

Figure 8: Work patterns in Scotland in 2012 and changes since 2008

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec

Levels of self-employment had been rising very gradually in Scotland between 2004 and 2010, but rose more rapidly in 2011 and 2012

• At the start of the recession in 2008, 268,500, (10.6%) of the 16+ workforce were self-employed
• By 2012 the level of those self-employed had increased to 301,700, (12.2%), an increase of 33,200, with around 60% of the increase due to a rise in the level of self-employed males. However, those working part-time made up 85% of the total rise in self-employment in Scotland in 2012.
• By comparison, the level of 16+ employees has decreased from 2,242,600 in 2008 to 2,145,700, a decrease of 96,900
• Since the recession, the proportion of the workforce who were self-employed has increased in 26 of Scotland's local authority areas, and decreased in the remaining 6 areas.
  • The largest increases in the proportion that were self-employed were seen in Stirling, Fife and Clackmannanshire which all saw increases of over 4.0 percentage points.
  • The largest decreases were seen in North Lanarkshire, Angus and Shetland Islands (all down by around 2.0 percentage points)

Levels and percentages for full-time/part-time employment, self-employment and workers with second jobs at Local Authority level are available in the web tables and via Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics.

As well as examining the overall employment rate and people's working patterns, it is useful to look at those who are underemployed: that is, those who are already in employment, but who would prefer to work more hours than they actually do (see Box 2 for full definition). Underemployment can provide an indication of underutilisation of labour. Underemployment is also used to refer to an under-utilisation of skills, however, this is not simple to measure and views of this type of underemployment may be different between employer and employee. At present, the LFS does not directly gather any information on skills related underemployment.

Box 2 - Definition of time-related underemployment

Based on the ILO definition, underemployment is measure of all employed persons aged 16 and over who during the reference week were willing to work additional hours, meaning that they:

• wanted another job in addition to their current job(s), or
• wanted another job with more hours instead of their current job(s), or
• wanted to increase the total number of hours worked in their current job(s).

The ILO definition of underemployment is available at:

http://www.ilo.org/global/statistics-and-databases/statistics-overview-and-topics/underemployment/current-guidelines/lang--en/index.htm

Using the definition in Box 2:

• In 2012 there were 243,300 workers who were underemployed, 10.0% of all employed people over 16.
• The level and rate of underemployment⁷ have increased by 68,900 (3.0 percentage points) since 2008.
• Underemployment rates are generally higher for women (this reflects the higher prevalence of part-time work amongst women). In 2012, the underemployment rate for men was 8.6% - up 2.5 percentage points since 2008 - while the rate for women was 11.5% - up 3.6 percentage points since 2008.

Chart 5: Underemployment levels by gender and work patterns, Scotland, 2004 to 2012

Chart 5 shows that underemployment levels for males and females in part-time employment, have risen more sharply than for their full-time counterparts since 2008. Underemployment levels for part-time workers have increased each year since the recession, whereas underemployment levels for full-time workers have decreased for males in recent years, and remained relatively flat for female workers (with a slight increase seen in 2012).

Underemployment data for those aged 16 and over for each local authority in Scotland are given in Table 4 in Annex A. A full time-series back to 2004 is provided in the web tables. Various other breakdowns for underemployment will be provided in the web-tables to support the Economy, Energy and Tourism (EET) Committee's inquiry into underemployment. More information on the committee's inquiry is available here

Employment by Industry and Sector

Analysis by Industry - Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 2007

Note that the preferred source for industry employment estimates at local authority level is the Business Register Employment Survey (BRES). Due to the way social surveys and business surveys are collected, there will be differences in estimates from the APS and BRES (industry sector is self-classified in the APS). The latest BRES data for Scotland's Local Authorities is available at:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Labour-Market/DatasetsEmployment

Based on the APS, in Scotland in 2012:

• The largest industry was 'Public administration, education and health', employing 31.2% of all workers. Note that this is not equivalent to the Public Sector.
• The smallest industry was 'Agriculture and fishing' with 1.8% of total employment.
• Over the year there have been no statistically significant⁸ changes in the proportions employed within each industry sector.
• Since 2008, there have been statistically significant changes in the proportions employed within 'Manufacturing' (down 1.6 percentage points), 'Construction' (down 2.3 percentage points), 'Banking, finance and Insurance' (up 2.2 percentage points) and 'Other services' (up 0.9 percentage points). Chart 5 illustrates these changes broken down by gender.

Chart 6: Change in the percentage employed within each industry sector between 2008 and 2012 by gender, Scotland

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, ONS

• The majority of the change seen in the 'Manufacturing', 'Construction' and 'Banking, Finance and Insurance' and 'Other Services' sectors since the start of the recession in 2008 were due to changes in the number of male workers.

Impact at Local Authority area level between 2008 and 2012

• The national reduction in 'Manufacturing' was driven by reductions in Fife, Glasgow and South Lanarkshire (down 8,300, 7,500 and 5,200 respectively), which, combined, accounted for just over 40% of the decrease in this sector.
• The largest declines within the 'Construction' sector were seen in Glasgow and Fife (down 7,800 and 4,000 respectively). However, decreases of over 1,000 were seen in 24 areas during this period, indicating that the impact was quite widespread.
• Increases in the level of those employed in 'Banking, Finance and Insurance' within Glasgow City, Aberdeen City and South Lanarkshire (up 9,400, 6,800 and 6,200 respectively) together accounted for around 50% of the total rise seen at national level in this sector
• Glasgow City and Aberdeenshire (both up 4,000) and Aberdeen City and Edinburgh (both up 2,600) together accounted for just under three-quarters of the total increase seen in employment within 'Other Services'.

Employment data by industry for each local authority in Scotland is provided in the web tables.

Public, Private and Third Sector analysis

Note: There is a difference in headline Public/Private employment levels reported in this section to those reported when looking at Public/Private sector only. This is mainly due to a small number of self-employed respondents getting classified into categories which are public sector. However, these are correctly classified during the Public/Private only analysis.

Box 3 - Public Sector Employment

The official source for employment in the public sector at national & regional level is the Quarterly Public Sector Employment series (QPSE). This data is based on administrative data from the various government organisations and bodies that make up the public sector and is based on the National Accounts definition of the public sector.

Sources for QPSE in Scotland:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Labour-Market/TrendPublicSectorEmp

The preferred source for estimates of public sector employment disaggregated by gender or age is the Annual Population Survey (APS), since these disaggregations are not available from the QPSE dataset. Where estimates are reliable, the APS can provide estimates of public/private sector employment by gender or age-group at local area level. However, it should be noted that due to self-classification, the APS tends to over-estimate the size of the public sector.

This is the first time that this publication series has presented third sector workforce statistics alongside those for the private and public sectors and helps to place them in the context of the wider workforce figures. The great advantage of the APS data is that it provides a consistent time series since 2004 and provides data on the characteristics of those employed in the sector.

Box 4- Third sector workforce statistics

Estimates of the third sector workforce derived from the APS are generally lower than the estimates produced from other sources and methodologies, for a number of reasons:

• Estimates of the third sector workforce will depend on the definition of sector used. The APS definition of the third sector includes those that work in charities, private trusts, housing associations or other voluntary organisations. Due to the way the data is collected, these estimates will also include employees of Trade Unions. It does not include government funded bodies and agencies, such as National Museums and Art Galleries, or Churches.
• The APS data relates only to a person's main job therefore individuals who have a secondary job in the sector are not included in the estimate. Although the APS does collect some information about people's second jobs, it does not gather the information required to determine if these jobs are in the third sector.
• The APS relies on respondents self-reporting the type of organisation that they work for. It is possible that some respondents may be unsure about the definition of the organisation for which they work.
• The APS is a household survey. Estimates based on surveys of organisations are likely to include an element of double counting as they count the number of jobs rather than the number of workers, as workers may have more than one job in the sector.

Based on the APS for Jan-Dec 2012:

• The Private sector employed 69.3% (1,692,200) of the population aged 16+ in Scotland, with the Public sector employing 27.2% (665,500) and the Third sector 3.5% (84,700).
• Over the year, both the Third and Private sectors have seen increases in their levels of employment. However, the increase in the Third sector (up 7,900) was higher than that seen in the Private sector (up 1,400), while employment levels in the Public sector decreased by 12,600. Just under two-thirds of the increase in employment in the Third sector was for those in full-time employment.
• Since 2008, employment levels in both Public and Private sectors have decreased (down 46,600 and 34,400 respectively), while employment levels in the Third sector increased (up 10,800) with those in part-time employment making up the majority (just under two-thirds) of this rise.
• While the majority (59%) of those employed in the Private sector are males, females accounted for the majority (64%) of all those employed in both the Public and Third sectors.
• People employed in the Third sector are more likely to work part-time than in the Private or Public Sectors (39% of those employed in the Third sector, compared to under 30% for those employed in the Private and Public sectors).
• About one in seven people who work in the Private or Private sectors have a disability, whereas in the Third sector the figure is just under one in four.

Figure 9: Comparison of Public, Private and Third Sectors

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, ONS

Employment data by Public/Private/Third sector in Scotland is provided in the web tables.

Public/Private sector analysis

Private sector employment had decreased at a faster rate between 2008 and 2009, reacting more rapidly to the recession, whereas public sector employment did not start to decrease until 2009 to 2010. The latest data indicates that, while the public sector has continued to contract through 2011, there are signs of a recovery in the private sector, with employment levels recovering to higher levels than those seen in 2009, although analysis from the previous section would tend to indicate that much of this is being driven by Third sector employment.

Figure 10: Work patterns in the Private and Public Sector

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, ONS

Based on the APS for 2012, over the year, Public Sector employment levels decreased, while Private sector employment levels increased.

• The reduction in Public sector employment between 2011 and 2012 (down 13,900) is lower than that seen between 2010 and 2011(down 33,000).
• Males accounted for just under 60% the reduction (down 8,300) in Public Sector employment over the year.
• Females accounted for just over three-quarters (8,000) of the 10,600 increase in Private sector employment.

An analysis of working patterns within the Private and Public Sectors in 2012 is shown in Figure 10. This shows that:

• Part-time work is slightly more common for males working in the private sector, but for females part-time work is more prevalent in the public sector.
• More than 80% of women working part-time in the public sector were not looking for full-time work.
• One in four men who worked part-time (in both private and public sectors) were doing so as they could not find full-time work.

Over the year, there is considerable variation in the change in public and private sector employment levels for local authorities, with some areas seeing losses in both sectors, while others have seen increases in one, but decreases in the other.

• Aberdeenshire, East Lothian, City of Edinburgh, Falkirk and South Ayrshire all saw increases in both public and private sector employment levels.
• The City of Edinburgh saw the largest combined increase in public and private sector employment
  • The 3,300 increase in public sector employment was dominated by an increase of 2,200 in the number of female employees, while the 5,100 increase in private sector employment was dominated by an 8,700 rise in level for males (with the female level decreasing by 3,600).
• Four local authorities (Dundee City, Glasgow City, Highland and Stirling) saw decreases in the levels of both public and private sector employment.
• Glasgow City saw the largest combined decrease in public and private sector employment levels.
  • Females accounted for 5,200 of the 8,900 decrease in public sector employment, while the 9,800 decrease in private sector employment was dominated by a 12,700 reduction in the level for males (with the female level increasing by 2,900).

Looking at the change in public and private sector employment since the start of the recession in 2008 shows a somewhat different picture, with both Public and Private sector employment having decreased (down 45,400 and 24,700 respectively).

• City of Edinburgh was the only local authority to see an increase in both public and private sectors over this period; Public sector employment increased by 3,200, while private sector employment rose by 2,600.
• 13 local authorities saw decreases in the levels of both public and private sector employment. Those which saw the largest decreases in their combined levels of public and private sector employment were Glasgow City (public sector down 8,400 from 73,400 to 65,500, private sector down 8,700 from 190,400 to 181,700) and North Ayrshire (public sector down 3,700 from 15,700 to 12,000, private sector down 4,400 from 44,200 to 39,800).

Employment data by public and private sector for each local authority in Scotland is provided in Table 5 in Annex A, with full time series back to 2004 available from the web tables.

Public/Private analysis by age group

Table 6 in Annex A gives estimates for the levels of Public and Private sector employment by age group by public and private sector at national level from for 2004 to 2012, while Chart 7 illustrates the changes in levels of employment by sector and age group over the year to 2012 and since 2008.

Chart 7: Change in level of employment by sector and age group over year and since 2008, Scotland, 2012

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, ONS

From Chart 7, it can be seen that:

• The largest decreases over the year in public sector employment were in the 25-34, and 50-64 age groups (down 5,200 and 9,600 respectively)
• Since the start of the recession in 2008, the largest decreases in public sector employment were seen by the 35-49 and 16-24 age groups, down 11,000 and 32,900 respectively. The 65+ age group was the only one to see an increase, with the level, up 3,100.
• Over the year Private sector employment increased for the 25-34, 50-64 and 65+ age groups, up 17400, 11,800 and 12,900 respectively. However the level decreased for the 16-24 and 35-49 age groups, down 13,400 and 18,000 respectively.
• Since the start of the recession in 2008, decreases in private sector employment were seen by the 16-24 and 35-49 age groups, down 43,400 and 44,600 respectively. The 25-34, 50-64 and 65+ age groups saw increases of 27,800, 18,900 and 16,600 respectively.

Occupation - Standard Occupational Classification 2000 (SOC 2000)

Note: The following analysis uses the Standard Occupational Classification 2000 coding as opposed to the new SOC 2010 coding which was implemented on the APS from January 2011. The conversion from SOC 2010 to SOC 2000 (and vice versa) is not exact, and this may introduce discontinuities in the time series. Further detail on SOC 2010 is available here.

Based on the APS, in Scotland in 2012, there have been statistically significant changes in four of the nine occupations groups since 2008:

• Decreases were seen in the percentage of people employed in 'Administrative and Secretarial occupations', 'Skilled Trades occupations' and 'Process, Plant and Machine Operatives' (down 0.8, 1.1 and 0.8 percentage points respectively).

• Females accounted for over 90% of the reduction seen in 'Administrative and Secretarial occupations', while males accounted for around 90% of the reduction in both 'Skilled Trade' and 'Process, Plant and Machine Operatives' occupations

• Increases were seen in the percentage of people employed in 'Professional occupations', which increased by 1.0 percentage point.

• Males accounted for just over four-fifths of the increase in 'Professional occupations'.

Figure 11: Breakdown by occupational group for Scotland 2012

Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec, ONS

Impact at Local Authority level between 2008 and 2011

• The increase in those employed in 'Professional occupations' was dominated by an increase of 8,000 within Glasgow City, 5,100 within City of Edinburgh and 4,800 within Aberdeenshire. Increases were seen in 13 other local authorities, and decreases in the remaining 16 authorities.
• The majority of local authorities (24) saw decreases in their employment in 'Administrative and Secretarial occupation's, with City of Edinburgh, Aberdeenshire and Dundee City seeing the largest decreases (down 4,800, 3,200 and 2,200 respectively).
• Reductions in employment in 'Skilled trades occupations' were seen in 25 local authorities, with Glasgow City, Fife and Aberdeen City and seeing the largest decreases (down by 5,600, 3,700 and 3,500 respectively).
• Reductions in employment in 'Process, plant and machine operatives' were seen in 23 local authorities, with Glasgow City, (down 5,800) Fife (down 5,200) and West Lothian (3,100) seeing the biggest decreases.

Employment data by occupation for each local authority in Scotland is provided in the web tables.