Activity Agreements National Implementation 2011-12

Factors that influence outcomes

12 Analysis of destinations data by key personal characteristics^[7] and MCMC risk variables^[8] suggests that there are a number of factors which may work in combination or individually to impact on outcomes (see tables 14-18).

13 In terms of personal characteristics, basic analysis suggests:

• Age - some evidence of a pattern of decreasing positive outcomes by age (15-18s)^[9]. Higher than average numbers of 15&16s progress to participate in other learning, training or work, whereas this falls below average for 17 and 18s (see table 14)
• Gender - A slightly lower proportion of young women (70%) than young men (75%) go on to participate in learning, training or work . (see table 15)
• Qualifications - fewer young people with no qualifications go on to participate in learning, training or work when compared with both the overall average and young people with low or intermediate qualifications (see table 16)
• ASNs - no evidence that those with ASNs are at a disadvantage. Young people with some ASNs appear to be less likely to to continue on into learning, training or work than others, but cell sizes are too small to draw any firm conclusions from this data (see table 17)
• Duration of Activity Agreement - some evidence that those whose Activity Agreements last for longer than 6 months may not be as likely to progress successfully into learning or training or work. (see table 18)

14 Initial analysis of the influence of 'risk' factors on outcomes suggests:

• Young people who have a history of offending or who have drugs/alcohol problems are less likely to have positive outcomes. However, those with drugs/alcohol problems are more likely (than the overall average) to disengage upon completion of their Activity Agreement, whereas those with a history of offending are more likely to progress on to an 'other' (unspecified) activity. This suggests that young offenders may be accessing further support, but that those with substance misuse issues are not as able to progress (see tables 19&20).
• Young people who are caring for others are slightly less likely (than average) to progress into learning, training or work, but they appear to be moving into 'other' (unspecified) activities, rather than disengaging from learning, training or work., so this may signal that they are accessing other forms of support/provision (see table 21).
• Similarly, care leavers are less likely (than average) to have a positive outcome, but there are also more participating in 'other' (unspecified) activities than are unemployed or inactive, suggesting that they may be more likely to require further support to keep them engaged with learning or training or to progress into a job. (see table 22).
• Finally, being looked after appears not to be associated with any disadvantage in terms of a positive progression on from an Activity Agreement. Actual numbers of looked after young people were fairly low and the data on outcomes suggests they are more likely (than average) to progress into further learning, training or work (see table 23).

For further information please contact:

Employability, Skills and Lifelong Learning Analysis
Scottish Government

Tel: 0300 244 6793