Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 29)
Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.
Technical Annex
| LA | P (Cases > 500) | P (Cases > 300) | P (Cases > 100) | P (Cases > 50) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen City | 10% | 22% | 61% | 81% |
| Aberdeenshire | 12% | 32% | 85% | 98% |
| Angus | 0% | 0% | 19% | 55% |
| Argyll and Bute | 0% | 1% | 10% | 45% |
| City of Edinburgh | 0% | 0% | 15% | 56% |
| Clackmannanshire | 2% | 13% | 88% | 98% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| Dundee City | 0% | 0% | 18% | 59% |
| East Ayrshire | 0% | 2% | 35% | 76% |
| East Dunbartonshire | 0% | 0% | 21% | 62% |
| East Lothian | 0% | 0% | 4% | 42% |
| East Renfrewshire | 0% | 2% | 67% | 95% |
| Falkirk | 0% | 0% | 2% | 29% |
| Fife | 0% | 0% | 32% | 77% |
| Glasgow City | 0% | 0% | 17% | 78% |
| Highland | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| Inverclyde | 0% | 1% | 45% | 79% |
| Midlothian | 0% | 0% | 22% | 73% |
| Moray | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| Na h-Eileanan Siar | 0% | 0% | 3% | 8% |
| North Ayrshire | 0% | 2% | 44% | 84% |
| North Lanarkshire | 0% | 0% | 44% | 89% |
| Orkney Islands | 0% | 0% | 2% | 10% |
| Perth and Kinross | 1% | 7% | 51% | 79% |
| Renfrewshire | 0% | 5% | 86% | 98% |
| Scottish Borders | 0% | 0% | 3% | 25% |
| Shetland Islands | 0% | 0% | 5% | 15% |
| South Ayrshire | 0% | 1% | 53% | 89% |
| South Lanarkshire | 0% | 2% | 60% | 94% |
| Stirling | 0% | 5% | 78% | 96% |
| West Dunbartonshire | 0% | 0% | 20% | 62% |
| West Lothian | 0% | 1% | 56% | 94% |
Tables 2 and 3 provide the underlying data used in the section above on “What the modelling tells us about Hospital bed and ICU bed demand”. They are based on modelling undertaken by Scottish Government (for more information see research findings issue 1).
The purpose of these predictions is to support a decision on what measures are needed in different parts of Scotland. As part of the medium term modelling, these predictions are not intended as short term forecasts (less than two weeks, for which management information is more appropriate), but the initial weeks are provided for completeness.
As the middle, lower and upper ends of the range are presented for each health board, the aggregate cannot be used as a prediction of the number of beds required in Scotland as a whole.
| Area | Cap. (double)[5] | 07/12/20 | 14/12/20 | 21/12/20 | 28/12/20 | 04/01/21 | 11/01/21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayrshire and Arran | 20 | 7 (0-11) | 7 (0-10) | 6 (0-10) | 6 (0-9) | 7 (0-9) | 7 (0-9) |
| Borders | 10 | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 8 | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) |
| Fife | 20 | 7 (0-9) | 7 (0-8) | 7 (0-8) | 7 (0-8) | 7 (0-8) | 7 (0-8) |
| Forth Valley | 14 | 7 (0-8) | 6 (0-8) | 6 (0-8) | 7 (0-8) | 7 (0-8) | 7 (0-8) |
| Grampian | 32 | 11 (5-14) | 10 (0-13) | 12 (0-17) | 15 (0-24) | 15 (0-24) | 16 (0-24) |
| Greater Glasgow and Clyde | 76 | 35 (15-44) | 33 (13-42) | 31 (10-41) | 30 (8-40) | 30 (7-40) | 31 (6-41) |
| Highland | 16 | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) |
| Lanarkshire | 40 | 25 (10-34) | 24 (8-32) | 22 (7-31) | 21 (5-31) | 22 (5-31) | 22 (0-32) |
| Lothian | 55 | 12 (0-18) | 11 (0-17) | 11 (0-17) | 11 (0-16) | 11 (0-16) | 11 (0-16) |
| Orkney | 0 | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) |
| Shetland | 0 | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) |
| Tayside | 22 | 6 (0-9) | 6 (0-9) | 6 (0-8) | 6 (0-8) | 6 (0-8) | 6 (0-8) |
| Western Isles | 4 | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) |
* indicates that the middle of the range is less than 5. Values in this table give an interval, actual occupancy could be higher or lower.
| Area | Cap. | 07/12/20 | 14/12/20 | 21/12/20 | 28/12/20 | 04/01/21 | 11/01/21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayrshire and Arran | 203 | 108 (43-143) | 105 (37-137) | 104 (32-135) | 104 (28-135) | 107 (25-136) | 109 (23-138) |
| Borders | 118 | 12 (5-15) | 11 (0-14) | 11 (0-14) | 11 (0-14) | 12 (0-14) | 12 (0-15) |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 90 | 6 (0-8) | 6 (0-7) | 5 (0-7) | 5 (0-7) | 5 (0-7) | 5 (0-7) |
| Fife | 322 | 60 (17-98) | 58 (15-94) | 58 (13-91) | 58 (12-90) | 60 (11-91) | 61 (10-92) |
| Forth Valley | 144 | 53 (15-85) | 51 (13-82) | 54 (11-87) | 57 (10-92) | 58 (9-93) | 60 (9-95) |
| Grampian | 295 | 98 (32-151) | 95 (27-144) | 118 (24-195) | 152 (21-270) | 156 (19-274) | 160 (18-277) |
| Greater Glasgow and Clyde | 1,070 | 405 (161-541) | 393 (138-519) | 374 (109-509) | 363 (86-509) | 372 (78-516) | 381 (72-522) |
| Highland | 176 | 11 (0-21) | 11 (0-20) | 11 (0-21) | 12 (0-22) | 12 (0-22) | 12 (0-22) |
| Lanarkshire | 455 | 243 (102-310) | 236 (88-298) | 226 (70-292) | 218 (55-292) | 223 (50-296) | 229 (46-299) |
| Lothian | 487 | 164 (72-200) | 159 (62-191) | 158 (54-188) | 159 (48-183) | 163 (44-186) | 167 (40-188) |
| Orkney | 28 | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) |
| Shetland | 64 | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) |
| Tayside | 172 | 84 (37-104) | 82 (31-100) | 82 (28-98) | 84 (25-98) | 86 (23-99) | 88 (21-100) |
| Western Isles | 32 | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) | * (0-5) |
* indicates that the middle of the range is less than 5. Values in this table give an interval, actual occupancy could be higher or lower.
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