Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 29)
Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.
What the modelling tells us about projections of hospitalisations in the medium term
SAGE produce projections of the epidemic over the next three weeks[1] (Figure 8), combining estimates from several independent models (including the Scottish Government Government’s logistics modelling, as shown in figures 5, 6 and 7). These projections are not forecasts or predictions. They represent a scenario in which the trajectory of the epidemic continues to follow current trends and do not account for the impact of future policy or behaviour changes. Nor do they include seasonal effects that might increase transmission.
The delay between infection, developing symptoms, hospitalisation and death means the projections cannot fully reflect changes in transmission that might have occurred over the past two to three weeks.
Beyond two weeks, the projections become more uncertain with greater variability between individual models. This reflects the large differences that can result from fitting models to different data streams, and the influence of small deviations in estimated growth rates and current incidence.
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