Offshore wind energy - draft sectoral marine plan: strategic environmental assessment

Non-Technical Summary

Introduction

The Scottish Government is developing a plan for future commercial offshore wind development in Scottish waters in the period to 2050. The plan builds on the previous draft plan for offshore wind published in 2013^[1] and seeks to provide opportunities for deep water wind technologies which may become commercially viable over this time period as well as further opportunities for fixed bottom technologies.

The offshore environment in Scotland has significant opportunity for future commercial offshore wind both in the short and long term. As part of the identification of potentially preferred areas for future development, Marine Scotland is now inviting views on the findings of the Strategic Environmental Assessment.

What is Strategic Environmental Assessment?

Strategic Environmental Assessment identifies the likely significant environmental impacts of plans and policies and proposed reasonable alternatives to them. Strategic Environmental Assessment also identifies mitigation measures that are required to avoid or minimise any significant adverse effects and highlights opportunities for enhancements of beneficial effects. Taking place at an early stage in the plan or policy preparation process, it ensures that decision-making is informed by relevant environmental information. Strategic Environmental Assessment provides opportunities for the public to consider this information and use it to inform their views on the draft plan or policy.

In accordance with the requirements of the Environmental Assessment (Scotland) Act 2005, a scoping exercise on the development of the Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind was undertaken by Marine Scotland, whereby the proposed scope, methodology and consultation period of the assessment were identified. In response to the scoping, Consultation Authorities^[2] confirmed the need for a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) due to the potential for significant environmental effects to occur. They also provided comment on the proposed scope and methodology of the assessment and consultation period for the Environmental Report. Their views are taken into account in this Environmental Report, as per the requirements of the 2005 Act.

What is the Plan?

Significant cost reductions in the offshore wind sector in recent years, together with the emergence of floating technology for offshore wind substructures, has encouraged Marine Scotland, as planning authority for Scotland's Seas, to undertake a new strategic planning exercise to inform the spatial development of any future leasing round. The output of this activity will provide guidance and support to the Crown Estate Scotland, which has announced its intention to run a new leasing round (ScotWind) for commercial scale offshore wind technologies in Scottish Waters, in selecting areas for release.

The plan establishes 17 new Draft Plan Option (DPO) areas potentially suitable for wind energy generation in Scotland that are assessed in a SEA (this document), Socio-Economic Impact Assessment (SEIA) and strategic Habitats Regulations Appraisal (HRA). The DPOs (Figure NTS1 and Table NTS1) have varying capacities, based on larger or smaller areas of sea identified, and include both shallow (less than 60 m) and deep-water sites (greater than 60m depth).

Table NTS1 Realistic maximum scale of development within each DPO under the plan

Region	DPO	Area km²	Potential Installed Capacity (GW)	Realistic Maximum Development Scenario for DPO (GW) Under the Plan
East	E1	3816	19.1	3
	E2	1287	6.4	2
	E3	474	2.4	1
North East	NE1	776	3.9	2
	NE2	464	2.3	1
	NE3	339	1.7	1
	NE4	440	2.2	1
	NE5	495	2.5	1
	NE6	699	3.5	2
	NE7	1027	5.1	3
	NE8	400	2	1
North	N1	1163	5.8	2
	N2	560	2.8	2
	N3	1106	5.5	2
	N4	200	1.0	1
West	W1	1107	5.5	2
South West	SW1	292	1.5	1

Figure NTS1 Draft Plan Option areas

What is the relationship between the Plan and its SEA?

The determination of the DPO areas that are to be included in the Sectoral Marine Plan has been undertaken in parallel with the development of the SEA. This has therefore supported modification to the areas under consideration as a result of a review of the potential environmental constraints. In this sense the SEA process has already informed the development of the DPO areas which are subsequently assessed herein.

The conclusions of the assessment reported in the SEA will provide an opportunity for consultees (the public) to consider the information contained herein and use it to inform their views on the DPO areas and scale of potential development outlined within the draft Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind.

How was the Strategic Environmental Assessment undertaken?

SEA provides a high-level and qualitative assessment of the potential environmental effects that are likely to result from the development of offshore wind within the DPO areas. The DPO areas represent reasonable alternatives in themselves (see below), as only a very limited proportion of the overall DPO areas are likely to be developed under the plan and some DPOs may not be developed at all.

The assessment identifies the individual and overall (cumulative) effects of the DPO areas on the SEA topics that are scoped into the assessment, specifically Biodiversity, Flora and Fauna; Population and Human Health; Soil (Marine Geology and Coastal Processes); Water Quality; Climatic Factors; Cultural Heritage and Landscape / Seascape. At a cumulative level the assessment considers differing scales of development under the Sectoral Marine Plan, both regionally and nationally. These represent further reasonable alternatives assessed within this SEA.

The assessment also considers the effects of development on a series of key statements ('Strategic Environmental Assessment objectives'). These objectives reflect the scope of the assessment as well as the environmental protection objectives from relevant legislation.

Economic and social impacts, including those on other users of the marine environment, are assessed in a SEIA which is reported separately. The Sustainability Appraisal, which is also reported separately, considers the potential environmental, economic and social effects of development under the Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind, drawing on information contained in the SEA and SEIA.

Which reasonable alternatives have been assessed?

The iterative process undertaken in the development of the DPOs was based upon the scoping Areas of Search^[3] supported by informal post-scoping engagement with stakeholders and interim SEA, HRA and SEIA. Some areas were removed from the Areas of Search during this process where they did not meet the SEA objectives or had other significant constraints.

Within this draft Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind the DPOs themselves represent the reasonable alternatives, as only a very limited proportion of the areas is likely to be developed.

Furthermore, at a regional and national level, the assessment has considered low, medium and high scenarios for assessment, as defined in Table NTS2.

Table NTS2 Assumptions on scale of development at national and regional scales

Region	Low Development Scenario	Medium Development Scenario	High Development Scenario
National	3 GW (4% of total capacity in DPOs)	5 GW (7% of total capacity in DPOs)	10 GW (14% of total capacity in DPOs)
SW	0.3 GW (21% of total capacity in DPOs)	0.6 GW (41% of total capacity in DPOs)	1 GW (68% of total capacity in DPOs)
W	0.5 GW (9% of total capacity in DPOs)	1 GW (18% of total capacity in DPOs)	2 GW (36% of total capacity in DPOs)
N	1 GW (7% of total capacity in DPOs)	2 GW (13% of total capacity in DPOs)	3 GW (20% of total capacity in DPOs)
NE	1.5 GW (6% of total capacity in DPOs)	3 GW (13% of total capacity in DPOs)	4.5 GW (19% of total capacity in DPOs)
E	1 GW (4% of total capacity in DPOs)	2 GW (7% of total capacity in DPOs)	3 GW (11% of total capacity in DPOs)

These different assessment scenarios have been used to understand the capacity of individual DPOs and regional clusters of DPOs to accommodate offshore wind development at different scales.

What is the current state of the environment?

Scotland's marine environment supports a diverse complex of different habitats, which in turn support a wide range of marine plants and animals. Estimates suggest that there are around 6,500 species of animals and plants (excluding microbial flora and seabirds) in Scotland's seas. Marine habitats within the Scottish marine environment can be characterised into three broad groups: intertidal habitats; subtidal (inshore and shelf sea); and deep-sea habitats.

The importance of Scotland's marine ecosystems is reflected in the range of designations which protect them at international and national levels. All designations are included within Scotland's Marine Protected Area (MPA) network, covering approximately 22% of Scottish seas. The designations protect a diverse range of features, including habitat types, marine mammals (cetaceans, seals and otter), birds and fish. A further 81 species are designated as Priority Marine Features, identified as being of conservation importance to Scotland, which are safeguarded under the National Marine Plan (policy GEN 9).

Scotland has a wide range of geological (rocks, minerals, fossils and structures), geomorphological (landforms and processes) and soil features that make up the marine and coastal landscape. The condition of these features influences the quality of habitats and in turn the viability and health of both flora and fauna populations.

Scotland's seas are mostly classed as being of high or good ecological status under the Water Framework Directive. The key pressures to the quality of the marine environment are from modifications to physical condition, rural diffuse pollution and waste water discharges. Marine and freshwater environments around Scotland are used for a variety of industrial and recreational activities including salmon and sea trout fisheries, recreational sea angling, sailing, cruising, bathing and recreational tourism. Coastal recreation opportunities make an important contribution to human health and wellbeing as well as coastal economies.

Within the marine environment, habitats and processes capable of carbon fixation and sequestration are defined as 'blue carbon sinks'. Multiple habitats across Scottish seas and coastal areas can store or sequester carbon including kelp forests, other seaweed communities, saltmarsh, shellfish and marine sediments. Their effectiveness as carbon sinks is highly dependent upon their long-term capacity to store carbon.

There are a number of pressures on the marine environment in Scotland, such as human activities (including from infrastructure development, oil and gas exploration, fishing, aquaculture, wastewater discharges) and climate change.

What are the likely significant environmental effects of the Plan?

When assessed individually, there is the potential for significant adverse effects within each of the DPOs. Each DPO has therefore been assessed against the baseline for each of the SEA topics, and the potentially moderate or major effects identified are defined in Table NTS3, alongside potential mitigation (actions to reduce/offset adverse effects).

Across all DPOs, there is potential for significant effects from installation of export cables. However, these cannot be meaningfully assessed at the plan level, and any potential effects will need to be managed through cable route selection and further mitigation at a project level.

Within all DPOs the development of offshore wind also has the potential to lead to significant (major) beneficial (positive) effects from the de-carbonisation of the energy sector and development of a secure energy supply.

Table NTS3 Summary of likely negative significant effects per DPO

DPO	Likely Significant Effects
SW1	There is potential for significant negative effects on birds, navigational safety, sediment transport and coastal processes, and visual effects. All these effect pathways have the potential to be mitigated at a project level, either through spatial planning or turbine design. In addition potential impacts and mitigation on harbour porpoise from the North Channel SAC should be considered. However, due to the proximity of the DPO to land, visual effects have the potential to be a constraining factor.
W1	There is potential for significant negative effects on seabed habitats, marine mammals, fish, sediment transport and coastal processes, and visual effects. All of these pathways have the potential to be mitigated at a project level, either through spatial planning, array design or through turbine design.
N1	There is potential for significant negative effects on bird populations from the Sule Skerry and Sule Stack SPA and on navigational safety. Both effect pathways have the potential to be mitigated through spatial planning within the DPO as the degree of impact varies considerably across the area.
N2	N2 has no significant negative effects identified.
N3	There is potential for a significant negative effect on bird species foraging in the DPO, including from colonies in the North Rona and Sula Sgeir SPA. This potential effect has the potential to be mitigated at a project level through appropriate monitoring and subsequent spatial planning to avoid areas of high risk.
N4	There is potential for significant effects on population (noise impacts), navigational safety and visual effects. There is some potential for mitigation of the above pathways through foundation and turbine design at the project level. However, any development in N4 may increase risk to commercial ships using the recommended deep water route in storm conditions.
NE1	There is potential for significant effects on seabed habitat, spawning fish, marine mammals and sediment transport and coastal processes. These pathways could be managed at a project level, particularly by avoidance of the eastern boundary of the DPO which borders the Pobie Bank SAC designated for benthic habitats. Further mitigation may include avoiding piling activities at key fish spawning times.
NE2	There is potential for significant effects on bird species, for which previous wind farm consultations have raised significant concerns. The conclusion of these consultations based on potential risk to bird populations, specifically Kittiwake, Great Black-backed Gull, Razorbill, Gannet and Guillemot is that currently there may be very limited capacity for further development on the east coast of Scotland. It is, however, recognised that there is uncertainty in this conclusion, which has the potential to be addressed once sufficient evidence is available. At a plan level, there is therefore proposed mitigation (discussed further below) that no development should be consented until sufficient evidence is available to demonstrate that such development will not cause a significant effect. In addition, within NE2 there is potential for a significant effect on spawning fish, which has the potential to be mitigated through avoidance of piling activities during key spawning periods.
NE3	There is potential for significant effects on bird species, for which previous wind farm consultations have raised significant concerns. The conclusion of these consultations based on potential risk to bird populations, specifically Kittiwake, Great Black-backed Gull, Razorbill, Gannet and Guillemot is that currently there may be very limited capacity for further development on the east coast of Scotland. It is, however, recognised that there is uncertainty in this conclusion, which has the potential to be addressed once sufficient evidence is available. At a plan level, there is therefore proposed mitigation (discussed further below) that no development should be consented until sufficient evidence is available to demonstrate that such development will not cause a significant effect. In addition, within NE3 there is potential for a significant effect on spawning fish, which has the potential to be mitigated through avoidance of piling activities during key spawning periods.
NE4	There is potential for significant effects on bird species, for which previous wind farm consultations have raised significant concerns. The conclusion of these consultations based on potential risk to bird populations, specifically Kittiwake, Great Black-backed Gull, Razorbill, Gannet and Guillemot is that currently there may be very limited capacity for further development on the east coast of Scotland. It is, however, recognised that there is uncertainty in this conclusion, which has the potential to be addressed once sufficient evidence is available. At a plan level, there is therefore proposed mitigation (discussed further below) that no development should be consented until sufficient evidence is available to demonstrate that such development will not cause a significant effect. Furthermore, NE4 has the potential to significantly affect navigational safety, as it overlaps almost entirely with the key route around Scotland. There is limited potential to mitigate this within the DPO, and therefore development within NE4 would likely necessitate a diversion of that route.
NE5	There is potential for significant effects on bird species, for which previous wind farm consultations have raised significant concerns. The conclusion of these consultations based on potential risk to bird populations, specifically Kittiwake, Great Black-backed Gull, Razorbill, Gannet and Guillemot is that currently there may be very limited capacity for further development on the east coast of Scotland. It is, however, recognised that there is uncertainty in this conclusion, which has the potential to be addressed once sufficient evidence is available. At a plan level, there is therefore proposed mitigation (discussed further below) that no development should be consented until sufficient evidence is available to demonstrate that such development will not cause a significant effect. Furthermore, NE5 has the potential to significantly affect visual receptors, depending on the technology deployed, and navigational safety, as it overlaps with some routes crossing the Moray Firth. There is potential to mitigate this within the DPO at project level through spatial planning to allow for safe transit through the arrays.
NE6	There is potential for significant effects on bird species, for which previous wind farm consultations have raised significant concerns. The conclusion of these consultations based on potential risk to bird populations, specifically Kittiwake, Great Black-backed Gull, Razorbill, Gannet and Guillemot is that currently there may be very limited capacity for further development on the east coast of Scotland. It is, however, recognised that there is uncertainty in this conclusion, which has the potential to be addressed once sufficient evidence is available. At a plan level, there is therefore proposed mitigation (discussed further below) that no development should be consented until sufficient evidence is available to demonstrate that such development will not cause a significant effect. Furthermore, NE6 has the potential to significantly affect navigational safety, as it overlaps with multiple key routes around Scotland, including lifeline ferry routes linking the mainland to the Shetland Islands. There is limited potential to mitigate this within the DPO, and therefore development within NE6 would likely necessitate a diversion of some or all of these routes, or a concentration of traffic into a smaller area.
NE7	There is potential for significant effects on birds within NE7, which may migrate through the DPO or use the area for foraging. Further research and consideration of mitigation may be used at a project level to determine and subsequently avoid areas of higher risk.
NE8	There is potential for significant effects on birds within NE8, which may migrate through the DPO or use the area for foraging. Further research and consideration of mitigation may be used at a project level to determine and subsequently avoid areas of higher risk.
E1	There is potential for development in E1 to have an effect on bird species, for which previous wind farm consultations have raised significant concerns. The conclusion of these consultations based on potential risk to bird populations, specifically Kittiwake, Great Black-backed Gull, Razorbill, Gannet and Guillemot is that currently there may be very limited capacity for further development on the east coast of Scotland, although these concerns are recognised to be more applicable to the inshore sites and risks are reduced in this case by the distance of E1 offshore. In addition, within E1 there is potential for a significant effect on spawning fish, which has the potential to be mitigated through avoidance of piling activities during key spawning periods.
E2	There is potential for significant effects on bird species, for which previous wind farm consultations have raised significant concerns. The conclusion of these consultations based on potential risk to bird populations, specifically Kittiwake, Great Black-backed Gull, Razorbill, Gannet and Guillemot is that currently there may be very limited capacity for further development on the east coast of Scotland, although these concerns are recognised to be more applicable to the inshore sites and risks are reduced in this case by the distance of E1 offshore. In addition, within E2 there is potential for a significant effect on spawning fish and navigational safety. Effects on spawning fish have the potential to be mitigated through avoidance of piling activities during key spawning periods, whilst effects on navigational safety can be managed through appropriate spatial planning within the DPO.
E3	There is potential for significant effects on bird species, for which previous wind farm consultations have raised significant concerns. The conclusion of these consultations based on potential risk to bird populations, specifically Kittiwake, Great Black-backed Gull, Razorbill, Gannet and Guillemot is that currently there may be very limited capacity for further development on the east coast of Scotland. It is, however, recognised that there is uncertainty in this conclusion, which has the potential to be addressed once sufficient evidence is available. At a plan level, there is therefore proposed mitigation (discussed further below) that no development should be consented until sufficient evidence is available to demonstrate that such development will not cause a significant effect. In addition, within E3 there is potential for a significant effect on spawning fish and navigational safety. Effects on spawning fish have the potential to be mitigated through avoidance of piling activities during key spawning periods, whilst effects on navigational safety can be managed through appropriate spatial planning within the DPO.

What are the cumulative effects of the Plan?

Cumulatively the SEA has considered effects at both a regional and a national level. The regional cumulative effects are summarised in Table NTS4. Regional cumulative effects include potential for negative effects on bird populations, cetaceans, visual impacts and navigation.

Nationally, the DPOs are spatially distinct between regions, and therefore there is limited potential for cumulative negative effects, however, those that are present predominantly relate to bird collision risk. At a national scale the potential cumulative positive effect is most significant, with a significant contribution to the decarbonisation of the energy sector in Scotland and the establishment of a secure energy supply.

Table NTS4 Summary of cumulative effects per region

Region	Key Potential Cumulative Effects
SW	There is only one DPO within the South West region, therefore there is no potential for cumulative effects on a regional scale with other DPOs within this plan.
W	There is only one DPO within the West region, therefore there is no potential for cumulative effects on a regional scale with other DPOs within this plan .
N	There are four key cumulative effects in the North region. Firstly, there is potential for significant cumulative effects on mobile species, including birds and cetaceans. Bird species have migration pathways or foraging areas which intersect DPOs within the North region. Development of areas across all DPOs therefore has the potential to cause a greater barrier effect to the migration routes, or displace birds from key foraging grounds, leading to increased collision risk or increased energetic requirements for bird species to divert around developments. Furthermore, there is the potential for significant effects on marine mammals. Cetaceans are primarily affected during construction activities, therefore concurrent construction within the DPOs in the North region has the potential to either cause physical injury or more likely displace species from these areas, which could cause a barrier effect preventing movement of cetaceans. There is also significant potential for cumulative effects on visual, seascape and landscape receptors, particularly regarding development within N2, N3 and N4, all of which may be visible from land around North East Lewis.
NE	There are six key cumulative effects in the North East region. Firstly, there is potential for cumulative effects on mobile species, principally on bird species. One pathway of concern is regarding effects on bird populations, specifically Kittiwake, Razorbill and Guillemot, through collision risk and displacement from foraging areas. Furthermore, development of areas across multiple DPOs has the potential to form a barrier to species movement, leading to increased collision risk or increased energetic requirements for bird species to divert around developments. Concurrent construction within the DPO's could cause physical damage or displace marine mammals and spawning fish from the area. There is also potential for cumulative effects on benthic receptors from sediment transport. There are many key navigational routes throughout the region and cumulative effects could cause traffic to divert or concentrate traffic into smaller areas, increasing navigational risk. Finally, there is potential for cumulative visual impacts, although the impact will be dependent on turbine size and spatial planning.
E	There are three key cumulative effects in the East region. Firstly, there is potential for cumulative effects on mobile species, principally on bird species. Within the East region the pathway of greatest concern is regarding effects on bird populations, specifically Kittiwake, Razorbill and Guillemot, through collision risk and displacement from foraging areas. Furthermore, development of areas across multiple DPOs has the potential to form a barrier to species movement, leading to increased collision risk or increased energetic requirements for bird species to divert around developments. There are also many key navigational routes throughout the region and cumulative effects could cause traffic to divert or concentrate traffic into smaller areas, increasing navigational risk.

In addition to the above consideration of cumulative effects of development under the plan, project level assessment of cumulative effects will be required, including for birds, cetaceans, migratory fish, visual impacts and navigation. The SEA identifies current reasonably foreseeable developments, including current offshore wind and marine renewable developments, that will require consideration. It is not considered possible to assess the magnitude of the cumulative effect due to the significant uncertainty as to the scale, location or technology of future developments.

How will significant environmental effects be mitigated?

In addition to the selection process undertaken to determine the DPOs, which mitigated a number of potential significant effects by avoiding areas of highest concern, there are a number of potential plan and project level mitigation measures that may be implemented.

Project level mitigations include consultation with local stakeholders, spatial planning, use of Statutory National Conservation Body (SNCB) piling/construction protocols, noise abatement measures, radar and survey studies to identify areas of risk, adherence to pollution, marine archaeology and biosecurity management plans, hydrodynamic and sediment studies.

Plan level mitigation measures identified include limiting the scale of development under the plan, placing requirements on developments for spatial planning and EIA, implementation of a temporal delay to development where sufficient data is currently unavailable, collaboration between organisations to improve baseline and impact assessment knowledge and to implement national environmental enhancement schemes, and management of project sequencing.

How will the Plan be implemented and monitored?

Once the final Plan has been adopted and published by Scottish Ministers, the Plan will be subject iterative plan management. This means that the Plan will be kept under review and it is currently anticipated that the Plan will be revised two years after adoption. This will ensure that the Plan remains reflective of current scientific knowledge and understanding, as well as prevailing market conditions. The Plan will also need to be revised to inform future Crown Estate Scotland seabed leasing rounds.

In addition, an Advisory Group will meet on an annual basis to consider recent research and developments and potential implications of such research and changes for the Plan. The Advisory Group will be made up of a wide range of stakeholders, including members of the Scottish Government Marine Strategy Forum, statutory consultees and academics with relevant expert knowledge.

Responding to this Consultation?

We are inviting responses to this consultation by 25 March 2020.

Please respond to this consultation using the Scottish Government's consultation hub, Citizen Space (http://consult.gov.scot). You can access and respond to this consultation online at https://consult.gov.scot/marine-scotland/draft-sectoral-marine-plan-for-offshore-wind/. You can save and return to your responses while the consultation is still open. Please ensure that consultation responses are submitted before the closing date of 25 March 2020.

If you are unable to respond using our consultation hub, please complete the Respondent Information Form to:

Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy Consultation
Scottish Government
Marine Planning and Policy Division
Area GB North
Victoria Quay
Edinburgh EH6 6QQ

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Next steps in the process

Where respondents have given permission for their response to be made public, and after we have checked that they contain no potentially defamatory material, responses will be made available to the public at http://consult.gov.scot. If you use the consultation hub to respond, you will receive a copy of your response via email.

Following the closing date, all responses will be analysed and considered along with any other available evidence to help us. Responses will be published where we have been given permission to do so. An analysis report will also be made available.

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please send them to the contact address above or at sectoralmarineplanning@gov.scot.

Scottish Government consultation process

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Consultation on the draft Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy

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