Offshore wind energy - draft sectoral marine plan: social and economic impact assessment

C Detailed Approach to Supply-Side Positive Economic Impacts

C.1 Introduction

This Appendix provides the detailed assumptions and calculations from the estimation of supply side impacts. The approach is supported by a spreadsheet thus some of the numbers presented below may not sum due to rounding.

C.2 Step 1: Spend per GW per year

Levels of spend per GW are based on BVG (2019)^[52]:

• Development and project management: £120 million per GW;
• Wind turbine supply: £1,000 million per GW (based on £10 million per 10 MW turbine and 100 turbines);
• Balance of plant: £600 million per GW;
• Installation and commissioning: £650 million per GW;
• Operation, maintenance and service: £75 million per GW per year.

These are the initial costs and it could be assumed that some reduction in costs would occur over time as technology develops and efficiencies occur. The impact of reducing costs is considered in the sensitivity analysis. For the purposes of the assessment, it has been assumed that the costs of floating technologies are similar to fixed bottom technologies at the point that they become commercially viable.

Table 55 sets out total spend across each activity by region based on projected development levels. This is total spend that is divided into per GW per year to account for the duration of each activity. The per GW per year spend totals are then allocated to specific years in line with the projected investment profile.

Table 55 Spend per GW per year by activity

Activity	Total spend
	Total spend per GW	Duration of activity	Spend per GW per year
Development and project management	£120,000,000	10 years	£12,000,000
Wind turbine supply	£1,000,000,000	2 years	£500,000,000
Balance of plant	£600,000,000	4 years	£150,000,000
Installation and commissioning	£650,000,000	4 years	£162,500,000
Operation, maintenance and service (per year)	£75,000,000	Annual	£75,000,000

Durations per activity used to divide total spend to annual spend are:

• Development and project management: 10 years;
• Wind turbine supply: 2 years;
• Balance of plant: 4 years;
• Installation and commissioning: 4 years;
• Operation, maintenance and service: 1 year (annual expenditure is provided in BVG, 2019).

Table 56 presents the projected spend in each region for each scenario.

Table 56 Regional scenarios used as the basis for level of spend

Region	Regional Low Scenario (GW)	Regional Medium Scenario (GW)	Regional High Scenario (GW)
East	1	2	3
North East	1.5	3	4.5
North	1	2	3
West	0.5	1	2
South West	0.3	0.6	1
Total (regional)	5	10	15.5
National (factored back)	3	5	10

C.3 Step 2: Spend retained in Scotland

Assumptions are required on the industry supply chain needs associated with the scale of future developments and the proposed technologies. This ensures that leakage outside of Scotland is excluded from the positive economic impacts. The total of spend retained within the Scottish regions varies according to the year in which spending is projected to occur. The capacity of the supply chain in Scotland to deliver these needs depends upon the programme of spending and where spend will be targeted. A review of available literature (Appendix B) provides an indication of the current capacity of the supply chain.

Assumptions have been made about the percentage of spend that is retained in Scotland. The potential retention rates draw on a number of studies, in particular BVG (2018)^[53] which provides an update on supply chain capability, building on an earlier BVG report from 2014. Retention rates for Smith & Noonan^[54] are used as upper estimates, given that these relate to wave and tidal energy, rather than wind energy. These studies are used to provide estimates in Scotland by activity to inform the potential retention rates for lower, mid and upper levels of local retention (Table 57). The table includes percentage retention figures for 2050. These reflect potential growth of the supply chain towards the end of the appraisal period and as such are assumed to only be applicable beyond the life of the plan that is assessed here. The proposed percentages are based on:

• Lower estimates: BVG (2018) without adjustment to account for those elements excluded, i.e. assuming that excluded elements would be developed outside Scotland. Since BVG (2018) only includes opportunity for now and in 2030, it is assumed that growth to 2050 is linear and occurs at the same rate as between now and 2030;
• Mid estimates: BVG (2018) with adjustment to account for elements excluded, i.e. expenditure on any activities not allocated an opportunity estimate in BVG (2018) is ignored in the calculations with retention rates based just on those activities for which an opportunity estimate is given;
• Upper estimates: Smith & Noonan (2018) with the low values used for 2020, increasing to medium in 2030 and to high in 2050.

Table 57 Potential percentages for local retention related to supply chain capacity, by project activity

Activity	Revised percentages for retention in Scotland
	Lower			Mid			Upper
	Now	2030	2050	Now	2030	2050	Now	2030	2050
Development and project management	0.1%	3%	5%	1%	20%	40%	20%	40%	70%
Wind turbine supply	2%	12%	22%	3%	14%	25%	10%	20%	30%
Balance of plant	3%	9%	15%	4%	23%	42%	50%	60%	70%
Installation and commissioning	1%	6%	11%	2%	7%	12%	40%	60%	80%
Operation, maintenance and service	10%	11%	12%	14%	16%	18%	30%	50%	70%
Overall	5%	11%	17%	7%	15%	22%	30%	46%	63%

These percentages can be applied regionally using Location Quotients (LQs). LQs show how concentrated a particular industry, cluster, occupation, or demographic group is in a region as compared to the nation. They reveal what makes a particular region ‘unique’ in comparison to the national average^[55]. LQs are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and area available at NUTS2 for Scotland^[56]. The LQs are averaged across the relevant NUTS2 areas and assigned to one of the Draft Plan Option regions (East, North East, North, West, South West).

The relevant industry sectors are then aligned with the five main activities:

• Development and project management: M – professional, scientific and technical services;
• Wind turbine supply: C – manufacturing;
• Balance of plant: F – construction;
• Installation and commissioning: F – construction and H – transportation and storage; and
• Operation, maintenance and service: D – electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.

Whereas multipliers are available for Scotland, multipliers are not produced at a smaller scale, i.e. regional level. D’Hernoncourt, Cordier and Hadley (2011) note that in order to disaggregate the multipliers to enable a refined local-based analysis, the national or regional multipliers often need to be re-scaled to the local level. The approach has included the development and use of Location Quotients. A Location Quotient (LQ) quantifies the concentration of an industry in a region compared with the nation.

This is calculated as follows:

LQs can then been applied to national output multipliers for the specific type of industry and expenditure to derive regional multipliers for the expenditure at destination level. The results show the impacts (or contribution) to the regional economy (in terms of GVA) and employment (in terms of FTE) as a result of spend in each particular region.

The lower, mid and upper percentages for retention are assigned according to the mean LQ for each region. The retention rates are based on upper being greater than the 75% quartile and lower being less than the 50% quartile (with mid falling in between). The results are shown in Table 58 below. This provides the starting percentage (now) for each region, with increases occurring from that starting point to reflect the current status of the supply chain and the extent to which it may grow through the pipeline of development.

Table 58 Retention rate assumptions per region based on LQs

Region	Development and project management (M)	Wind turbine supply (C)	Balance of plant (F)	Installation and commissioning (mean of F and H)	Operation, maintenance and service (D)
East	Upper	Mid	Mid	Mid	Upper
North East	Lower	Lower	Upper	Upper	Mid
North	Lower	Lower	Mid	Mid	Lower
West	Mid	Lower	Lower	Lower	Lower
South West	Lower	Mid	Lower	Lower	Lower
National	Mid	Lower	Mid	Mid	Mid

The percentages shown in Table 58 are used as the basis for development of the scenario storylines for each region. The scenario storyline for each region is summarised in Appendix B. The amount of spend (and hence jobs and GVA) is based on local spend initially before being scaled back at the national level on a pro-rata basis.

Start and end retention rates vary over the timeframe as the supply chain develops to meet demand. Table 59 presents the start and end retention rates for each activity, based on growth of the supply chain due to a pipeline of projects across the regions. Note that the 2050 retention rates are not used in the estimation of supply side impacts; these are assumed to be potentially attained by the end of the appraisal timeframe and could form the basis of future positive effects beyond the timeframe of the Plan.

Table 59 Percentage retention rates at the start and end of the project timescale

Activity	Revised percentages for retention in Scotland
	Lower			Mid			Upper
	Now	2030	2050	Now	2030	2050	Now	2030	2050
Development and project management	0.1%	3%	5%	1%	20%	40%	20%	40%	70%
Wind turbine supply	2%	12%	22%	3%	14%	25%	10%	20%	30%
Balance of plant	3%	9%	15%	4%	23%	42%	50%	60%	70%
Installation and commissioning	1%	6%	11%	2%	7%	12%	40%	60%	80%
Operation, maintenance and service	10%	11%	12%	14%	16%	18%	30%	50%	70%
Overall	5%	11%	17%	7%	15%	22%	30%	46%	63%

C.4 Step 3: Allocation of spend to the scenario timelines

It is unlikely that all spending would be undertaken at once, indeed, this would be undesirable from an economic perspective as it would give no time or opportunity for growth in supply chains. Assumptions are made, therefore, on the timing of spend for each scenario, each region and nationally based on the assumptions concerning overall project time lines.

Given the nature of project development, construction and then operation, the different stages are phased across the 40 year time period used for the assessment as follows:

• Development and project management: occurs over a ten year period for each GW between 2021 and 2031 (years 1 to 10), to ensure that the wind farms are operational in line with the spend profile
• Wind turbine supply: occurs over a two year period towards the end of development and project management, i.e. in years 8 and 9 of development and project management
• Balance of plant: occurs over a four year period towards the end of development and project management, i.e. years 7 to 10 of development and project management
• Installation and commissioning: occurs over a four year period towards the end of development and project management, i.e. years 7 to 10 of development and project management
• Operation, maintenance and service: occurs annually once installation and commissioning has been completed for 30 years or until the end of the appraisal time period is reached (i.e. 2059).

Table 60 provides the total spend for each region taking into account total spend, i.e. total number of GW that are projected to be installed in each region over the total appraisal period (2020-2059).

The timing of spend varies by region and scenario to ensure that there is a reasonable spread of development across the appraisal period. Table 61 sets out the projected spend profile for each region and nationally for each scenario showing which activities are projected to occur and when.

Table 60 Projected total spend levels per region

Region and Stage	Regional Low Scenario (£ millions)	Regional Medium Scenario (£ millions)	Regional High Scenario (£ millions)
East
Development and project management	£12	£24	£36
Wind turbine supply	£500	£1,000	£1,500
Balance of plant	£150	£300	£450
Installation and commissioning	£163	£326	£489
Operation, maintenance and service (per year)	£75	£150	£225
North East
Development and project management	£18	£36	£54
Wind turbine supply	£750	£1,500	£2,250
Balance of plant	£225	£450	£675
Installation and commissioning	£245	£489	£734
Operation, maintenance and service (per year)	£113	£225	£338
North
Development and project management	£12	£24	£36
Wind turbine supply	£500	£1,000	£1,500
Balance of plant	£150	£300	£450
Installation and commissioning	£163	£326	£489
Operation, maintenance and service (per year)	£75	£150	£225
West
Development and project management	£6	£12	£24
Wind turbine supply	£250	£500	£1,000
Balance of plant	£75	£150	£300
Installation and commissioning	£82	£163	£326
Operation, maintenance and service (per year)	£38	£75	£150
South West
Development and project management	£4	£7	£12
Wind turbine supply	£150	£300	£500
Balance of plant	£45	£90	£150
Installation and commissioning	£49	£98	£163
Operation, maintenance and service (per year)	£23	£45	£75

Table 61 Spend profile by activity and region

C.5 Step 4: GVA per region

The impacts are based on change in spend, or output, for each activity. Therefore, the GVA effect is used (rather than the GVA multiplier) for GVA impacts. Spend can be converted to GVA per region by using the GVA effect. Both the Type I (direct and indirect effects) and Type II (direct, indirect and induced effects) are applied^[57]. The multipliers used are set out in Table 62 with the results for each region and activity for each of the three scenarios in Table 63 for GVA Type I and Type II. The values set out in Table 63 are undiscounted and provide the total GVA across three ten year periods (2020-2029, 2030-2039, 2040-2049 and 2050-2059).

Table 62 GVA effect multipliers used in the analysis (based on Scottish Government, 2018 with data being for 2015)

Activity	GVA effect
	SIC code	Type I	Type II
Development and project management	71	0.7	0.9
Wind turbine supply	28	0.5	0.6
Balance of plant	41-43	0.7	0.8
Installation and commissioning	41-43	0.7	0.8
Operation, maintenance and service (per year)	33	0.7	0.9

Table 63 GVA impacts based on Type I and Type II GVA effect

Scenario and region	GVA impacts (undiscounted)
Low, Type I	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	£56,020,000	£265,860,000	£262,500,000	£262,500,000
North East	£402,096,600	£402,582,000	£126,000,000	£126,000,000
North	£18,004,600	£138,419,500	£57,750,000	£57,750,000
West	£13,953,000	£29,715,000	£28,875,000	£28,875,000
South West	£9,667,680	£17,400,600	£17,325,000	£17,325,000
National	£36,992,000	£529,780,000	£253,680,000	£252,000,000
Low, Type II	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	£67,040,000	£341,820,000	£337,500,000	£337,500,000
North East	£460,124,200	£477,534,000	£162,000,000	£162,000,000
North	£20,870,200	£166,221,500	£74,250,000	£74,250,000
West	£16,286,000	£38,205,000	£37,125,000	£37,125,000
South West	£11,309,160	£22,372,200	£22,275,000	£22,275,000
National	£43,004,000	£634,160,000	£326,160,000	£324,000,000
Medium, Type I	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	£62,740,000	£615,720,000	£525,000,000	£525,000,000
North East	£402,126,000	£1,324,980,000	£252,000,000	£252,000,000
North	£36,009,200	£276,839,000	£115,500,000	£115,500,000
West	£27,906,000	£59,430,000	£57,750,000	£57,750,000
South West	£9,677,760	£67,046,700	£34,650,000	£34,650,000
National	£43,887,000	£830,982,500	£532,465,000	£420,000,000
Medium, Type II	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	£75,680,000	£767,290,000	£675,000,000	£675,000,000
North East	£460,162,000	£1,543,260,000	£324,000,000	£324,000,000
North	£41,740,400	£332,443,000	£148,500,000	£148,500,000
West	£32,572,000	£76,410,000	£74,250,000	£74,250,000
South West	£11,322,120	£81,612,900	£44,550,000	£44,550,000
National	£50,944,000	£993,340,000	£670,280,000	£540,000,000
High, Type I	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	£62,740,000	£844,410,000	£790,860,000	£787,500,000
North East	£603,189,000	£1,987,470,000	£378,000,000	£378,000,000
North	£36,009,200	£467,557,000	£173,502,000	£173,250,000
West	£28,242,000	£223,485,000	£115,500,000	£115,500,000
South West	£16,129,600	£111,744,500	£57,750,000	£57,750,000
National	£87,774,000	£1,661,965,000	£1,064,930,000	£840,000,000
High, Type II	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	£75,680,000	£1,036,970,000	£1,016,820,000	£1,012,500,000
North East	£690,243,000	£2,314,890,000	£486,000,000	£486,000,000
North	£41,740,400	£554,159,000	£223,074,000	£222,750,000
West	£33,004,000	£272,895,000	£148,500,000	£148,500,000
South West	£18,870,200	£136,021,500	£74,250,000	£74,250,000
National	£101,888,000	£1,986,680,000	£1,340,560,000	£1,080,000,000

C.6 Step 5: Employment per region

The impacts of increased GVA per region can be expressed in terms of number of Full-Time Equivalent (FTEs) jobs created and supported. The job numbers are estimated by applying the employment effect multiplier to the GVA retained in each region (in £ millions). As with GVA both the Type I (direct and indirect effects) and Type II (direct, indirect and induced effects) are applied. The multipliers used are presented in Table 64.

Table 64 Employment effect Type I and Type II multipliers used in the analysis (based on Scottish Government, 2018 with data being for 2015)

Activity	Employment effect
	SIC code	Type I	Type II
Development and project management	71	12.2	14.5
Wind turbine supply	28	9.8	11.8
Balance of plant	41-43	12.3	14.4
Installation and commissioning	41-43	12.3	14.4
Operation, maintenance and service (per year)	33	9.2	11.3

The number of FTEs supported and created by the level of spend is estimated by applying the employment effect to the retained spend (in £ millions). The results in terms of number of FTEs are shown in Table 65 as a maximum number of jobs within each of the ten-year periods. The maximum number of jobs is provided, rather than the sum, since many of the activities last more than one year, hence, the same job may be created and then supported over the duration of the activity.

Table 65 Regional employment impacts based on Type I and Type II employment effect

Scenario and region	Employment (maximum number of FTEs)
Low, Type I	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	174	282	242	242
North East	1,255	1,033	116	116
North	64	373	53	53
West	51	37	27	27
South West	38	17	16	16
National	131	864	252	232
Low, Type II	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	244	444	381	381
North East	1,684	1,417	183	183
North	89	521	84	84
West	71	58	42	42
South West	53	27	25	25
National	180	1,229	397	366
Medium, Type I	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	194	1,020	483	483
North East	1,255	2,066	232	232
North	129	745	106	106
West	103	74	53	53
South West	38	180	32	32
National	211	1,357	1,019	386
Medium, Type II	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	275	1,468	763	763
North East	1,684	2,834	366	366
North	178	1,042	168	168
West	143	115	84	84
South West	53	256	50	50
National	289	1,911	1,473	610
High, Type I	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	194	1,262	765	725
North East	1,882	3,099	348	348
North	129	798	162	159
West	71	568	106	106
South West	63	300	53	53
National	423	2,714	2,037	773
High, Type II	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	275	1,849	1,207	1,144
North East	2,526	4,250	549	549
North	178	1,126	256	252
West	144	808	168	168
South West	89	426	84	84
National	577	3,821	2,946	1,220

C.7 Step 6: Local versus relocated jobs

Ironside Farrar (2018)^[58] gives a breakdown of jobs available to local people and those for people relocating. Typically in Tiree, around 25% of jobs are for local people and 75% for those relocating.

Assumptions also need to be made on the proportion of jobs that will be available to local people, versus those moving into the area to take up new jobs. In estimating the net impact on jobs for Scotland, relocation will have to be considered. Ironside Farrar (2018) identifies that 25% of jobs created are typically taken by local people while 75% are taken by those relocating to the area. The total number of local and relocated jobs are shown in Table 66 for both Type I and Type II jobs over three ten year periods As shown in the tables, the largest number of jobs is expected during 2030–2039, which mostly coincides with the construction period. These employment impacts will cease however being transitional in nature (and likely to be filled in by people being relocated to the areas). This is important information for the social impact assessment. In terms of supply chain impacts, some of those relocating may come from other regions in Scotland, rather than outside Scotland.

Table 66 Local and relocated jobs

Scenario and region	Employment (maximum number of FTEs)
	2020-2029		2030-2039		2040-2049		2050-2059
Low, Direct	Local	Relocated	Local	Relocated	Local	Relocated	Local	Relocated
East	35	104	62	185	53	159	53	159
North East	234	703	199	596	25	76	25	76
North	13	38	74	222	12	35	12	35
West	10	31	8	24	6	17	6	17
South West	8	23	4	11	3	10	3	10
National	26	77	174	522	55	166	51	153
Low, Type I	Local	Relocated	Local	Relocated	Local	Relocated	Local	Relocated
East	43	130	71	212	60	181	60	181
North East	314	941	258	775	29	87	29	87
North	16	48	93	279	13	40	13	40
West	13	39	9	28	7	20	7	20
South West	9	28	4	13	4	12	4	12
National	33	98	216	648	63	189	58	174
Low, Type II	2020-2029		2030-2039		2040-2049		2050-2059
East	61	183	111	333	95	286	95	286
North East	421	1,263	354	1,063	46	137	46	137
North	22	67	130	391	21	63	21	63
West	18	54	14	43	10	31	10	31
South West	13	40	7	20	6	19	6	19
National	45	135	307	922	99	298	92	275
Medium, Direct	2020-2029		2030-2039		2040-2049		2050-2059
East	39	117	208	624	106	318	106	318
North East	234	703	397	1,191	51	153	51	153
North	25	76	148	445	23	70	23	70
West	20	61	16	48	12	35	12	35
South West	8	23	37	110	7	21	7	21
National	41	122	269	806	208	624	85	254
Medium, Type I	2020-2029		2030-2039		2040-2049		2050-2059
East	49	146	255	765	121	362	121	362
North East	314	941	517	1,550	58	174	58	174
North	32	97	186	559	27	80	27	80
West	26	77	18	55	13	40	13	40
South West	9	28	45	135	8	24	8	24
National	53	159	339	1,018	255	764	97	290
Medium, Type II	2020-2029		2030-2039		2040-2049		2050-2059
East	69	207	367	1,101	191	572	191	572
North East	421	1,263	708	2,125	92	275	92	275
North	44	133	260	781	42	126	42	126
West	36	107	29	86	21	63	21	63
South West	13	40	64	192	13	38	13	38
National	72	216	478	1,433	368	1,105	153	458
High, Direct	2020-2029		2030-2039		2040-2049		2050-2059
East	39	117	261	783	168	503	159	477
North East	352	1,055	596	1,787	76	229	76	229
North	25	76	160	479	36	107	35	105
West	21	62	116	347	23	70	23	70
South West	13	38	61	184	12	35	12	35
National	81	244	538	1,613	416	1,248	170	509
High, Type I	2020-2029		2030-2039		2040-2049		2050-2059
East	49	146	315	946	191	574	181	543
North East	471	1,412	775	2,324	87	261	87	261
North	32	97	200	599	41	122	40	120
West	26	78	142	426	27	80	27	80
South West	16	47	75	225	13	40	13	40
National	106	317	678	2,035	509	1,528	193	580
High, Type II	2020-2029		2030-2039		2040-2049		2050-2059
East	69	207	462	1,387	302	905	286	858
North East	632	1,895	1,063	3,188	137	412	137	412
North	44	133	281	844	64	192	63	189
West	36	108	202	606	42	126	42	126
South West	22	66	107	320	21	63	21	63
National	144	433	955	2,866	736	2,209	305	915

The potential impacts in terms of displacement draw on unemployment statistics. The statistics used are those for people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the past four weeks and who are available to begin work within two weeks; the assumption being that the jobs will be filled in by this group. This is different from the proportion of the total population that is unemployed^[59] but is appropriate for use here as the aim is to identify the extent to which the local job markets may be able to supply the required workforce with an immediate effect. Note this figure does not take account of skill level.

Table 67 identifies the number of unemployed people within each region (based on statistics for 2018 Q4) in Scotland. Where a local authority area is captured in more than one region, it is assumed that the number of unemployed people is equally distributed across all of the relevant regions.

Table 67 Number of unemployed people per region

Local authorities by region
Region	Local authorities included within that region	Total number of unemployed people
East	Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire Angus Clackmannanshire Dundee City East Lothian Edinburgh, City of Falkirk Fife Midlothian Moray (also North East) North Lanarkshire (also West) Perth & Kinross (also West) Scottish Borders (also South West) South Lanarkshire West Lothian	42,650
North East	Highland (also West and North) Orkney Islands (also North) Shetland Islands	6,000
North	Eilean Siar Highland (also West and North East)	8,000
West	Argyll & Bute East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire Glasgow City Inverclyde North Ayrshire Renfrewshire Stirling West Dunbartonshire Highland (also North East and North)	38,150
South West	Dumfries & Galloway East Ayrshire (also West) South Ayrshire	19,600
Notes: Number of unemployed people based on unemployment model based estimates from https://statistics.gov.scot

Table 68 provides the proportion of total unemployed represented by the number of jobs projected to be created under each scenario. Jobs are grouped over three periods over which they may be created.

Table 68 shows that, for most regions, the number of jobs created is a relatively small proportion in terms of total numbers of unemployed people with the exception being the North East. The maximum percentage is in the North East, where the proportion reaches 19% under the high scenario (Type II). For most regions, therefore, it could be expected that displacement will not have a significant effect since there is sufficient capacity within the current levels of unemployment to fill the wind farm jobs or for those choosing to move from another job into wind farm work. There may be issue with the appropriate level of skills being available, although reductions in jobs associated with other skilled areas, such as oil and gas, could help reduce any potential skill shortages.

Table 68 Proportion of unemployed represented by the projected number of jobs created per region (local jobs only)

Scenario and region	Employment (maximum number of FTEs)
	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
Low, Type I	Local	Local	Local	Local
East	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
North East	5.2%	4.3%	0.5%	0.5%
North	0.2%	1.2%	0.2%	0.2%
West	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%	0.0%
South West	0.05%	0.02%	0.02%	0.02%
National	0.03%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
Low, Type II	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%
North East	7.4%	6.2%	0.8%	0.8%
North	0.4%	1.8%	0.3%	0.3%
West	0.1%	0.05%	0.03%	0.0%
South West	0.1%	0.1%	0.03%	0.03%
National	0.04%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
Medium, Type I	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	0.1%	0.6%	0.3%	0.3%
North East	5.2%	8.6%	1.0%	1.0%
North	0.4%	2.3%	0.3%	0.3%
West	0.1%	0.05%	0.03%	0.0%
South West	0.05%	0.2%	0.04%	0.04%
National	0.05%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
Medium, Type II	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	0.2%	0.9%	0.4%	0.4%
North East	7.6%	12.3%	1.5%	1.5%
North	0.9%	3.7%	0.5%	0.5%
West	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
South West	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
National	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%
High, Type I	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	0.1%	0.7%	0.4%	0.4%
North East	7.8%	12.9%	1.4%	1.4%
North	0.4%	2.5%	0.5%	0.5%
West	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%
South West	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%
National	0.1%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%
High, Type II	2020-2029	2030-2039	2040-2049	2050-2059
East	0.2%	1.1%	0.7%	0.7%
North East	11.3%	18.5%	2.3%	2.3%
North	0.9%	3.9%	1.0%	0.8%
West	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.1%
South West	0.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.1%
National	0.1%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%