Scottish economic bulletin: April 2024

Output

GDP growth strengthened in January following contraction in the final quarter of 2023.

• Scotland’s economic output grew 0.6% over the month of January 2024 however more broadly fell 0.1% over the three months to January following an 0.6% fall in the final quarter of 2023. The overall pace of growth remains subdued, however monthly growth of 0.4% in December, and 0.6% in January indicates a modest strengthening and is reflective of a stronger growth outlook for the year ahead.^[1]

  

• The 0.1% fall in output over the three months to January was driven by a fall in output in the Production (-2.8%) and Construction (-1.0%) sectors which offset growth in the Services sector (0.4%).
• In the Production sector, Manufacturing output continued its downward trend, falling 2.4% in the three months to January, within which the manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco output fell 6%. More broadly, manufacturing output has fallen 5.6% over the past year.
• Services sector output growth was driven by steady growth in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (1.6%) while Consumer Facing Services growth strengthened to 3.1%, its fastest three-monthly growth since May 2022. This was mainly driven by growth in Accommodation and Food Services (2.4%) and Arts, Culture and Recreation (3.9%), while Retail output fell on a three-monthly basis for its nineteenth consecutive month (-0.4%), reflecting that challenging conditions are continuing to impact on economic activity.