Reconviction Rates in Scotland: 2012-13 Offender Cohort

4 Main findings: reconviction rates for court disposals

(Tables 1 to 12)

4.1 There were 41,710 offenders discharged from custody or given a non-custodial sentence in 2012-13 (Table 1), a number which has been declining every year from 53,300 in 2006-07.

4.2 The reconviction rate and average number of reconvictions per offender (Table 1 and Chart 1) have generally been declining over the past decade. There was a slight increase in reconvictions in 2008-09 which is likely to be due to the Summary Justice Reforms which meant that cases were processed faster through the courts. Between 2003-04 and 2012-13, the reconviction rate has fallen by 4.1 percentage points from 32.7 to 28.6, and the average number of reconvictions has fallen by 18 per cent from 0.62 to 0.51. These reductions are also set against the context of a falling number of crimes recorded by the police since 2004-05 (Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2013-14). Crime and victimisation surveys also reveal a similar pattern of falling incidence of crime (Scottish Crime and Justice Survey, 2012-13).

Age and gender

4.3 Males have higher reconviction rates and a higher average number of reconvictions per offender than females (Table 2). The average number of reconvictions per offender for the 2012-13 cohort was 0.53 for males, and 0.43 for females. The reconviction rates were 29.6 per cent for males and 23.3 per cent for females.

4.4 Offenders under the age of 21 had the highest reconviction rate of all the age groups (33.0 per cent) in 2012-13. Offenders under 21 also have one of the highest average number of reconvictions per offender of the age groups (0.57), but this is equal with the 26 to 30 age group, and only slightly higher than the 31 to 40 age group (Table 3).

4.5 Reconvictions for offenders aged under 21 used to be significantly higher than the other age groups, but they have showed substantial declines over time to their current levels which are more similar to the other age groups. The average number of reconvictions has dropped to 0.57 in 2012-13 by nearly 39 per cent from its highest level of 0.93 in 1997-98, and by nearly 31 per cent from 0.82 in 2003-04. The reconviction rate of the under 21 age group decreased to 33.0 per cent in 2012-13 by 9.4 percentage points from 42.4 per cent in 1997-98, and by 7.6 percentage points from 40.6 per cent in 2003-04 (Table 3, Chart 3, and Chart 4).

4.6 There have also been large declines in the reconviction rate and average number of reconvictions per offender in the 21 to 25 age group in the past 10 years. The reconviction rate decreased by 5.7 percentage points from 36.4 per cent in 2003-04 to 30.7 per cent in 2012-13; and in the same period the average number of reconvictions per offender decreased from 0.72 to 0.52, a 28 per cent reduction.

4.7 Unlike the younger age groups, the figures for the 26 to 30 year age group have shown no clear trend over the past 10 years (Table 3). However, in 2012-13 the reconviction rate for this age group decreased to 31.0 per cent which is its lowest level since 1998-99 and the average number of reconvictions decreased to 0.57 which is its lowest level since 2000-01.

4.8 In this bulletin we now separately present the reconviction rate and average number of reconvictions for offenders age 31 to 40 and for offenders over 40. In previous bulletins, these age groups were combined in an "over 30" age group. The over 30 age group has now been split for two reasons. Firstly, it was the largest age group in terms of offender numbers, and now it has been split into two roughly equal sized groups that are also similar in size to the other age groups. Secondly, the 2011-12 cohort bulletin reported that over 30 age group was the only age group that had been showing an increase in reconvictions over the past 10 years, so splitting it may aid the understanding of where the increases are occurring.

4.9 Reconvictions of the older age groups have generally increased over the past 10 years. Between 2003-04 and 2012-13, the reconviction rate for offenders aged 31 to 40 has increased by 1.3 percentage points from 28.5 per cent to 29.8 per cent, and the over 40 age group has increased by 3 percentage points from 17.4 to 20.4. In the same time period the average number of reconvictions for the 31 to 40 age group has increased by 12 per cent from 0.50 to 0.56, and for the over 40 age group it has increased by 20 per cent from 0.30 to 0.36. However, the reconviction rate and average number of reconvictions for the age 31 to 40 age group have shown a slight decline in the past year, and the reconviction rate and average number of reconvictions for the over 40 age group are still significantly lower than the other age groups.

4.10 Males aged under 21 had the highest reconviction rate of any age-gender combination in 2012-13 at 34.6 per cent (Table 4).

4.11 Males aged under 21 and males aged 31 to 40 had the highest average number of reconvictions per offender of any age-gender combination, with both at 0.59 in 2012-13. (Table 4 and Chart 3). This number was only slightly higher than that for females aged 26 to 30, who had an average of 0.58 reconvictions per offender in the same year (Table 5 and Chart 4).

4.12 Patterns of change in reconvictions (both rates and averages numbers) for males of different age groups are generally the same (Table 4) as those for the overall age groups (Table 3), as males make up the majority of offenders. For example, in the past 10 years the average number of reconvictions have decreased considerably for males under 21 (almost 30 per cent from 0.84 in 2003-04 to 0.59 in 2012-13) and also for males aged 21 to 25 (over 26 per cent from 0.72 in 2003-04 to 0.53 in 2012-13). The average number of reconvictions per offender for males aged 26 to 30 have followed no clear trend over past 10 years, whereas they increased by nearly 16 per cent (from 0.51 in 2003-04 to 0.59 in 2012-13) for males aged 31 to 40 and increased by 20 per cent (from 0.31 in 2003-04 to 0.37 in 2012-13) for males aged over 40 years (Table 4 and Chart 3).

4.13 Females show a slightly different pattern of reconvictions (both rates and average number per offender) by age compared to males. Like males, reconvictions for females aged under 21 and aged between 21 to 25 have shown large decreases over the past 10 years. i.e. the average number of reconvictions per offender decreased by nearly 37 per cent for females aged under 21 (from 0.65 in 2003-04 to 0.41 in 2012-13) and by more than 33 per cent (from 0.69 in 2003-04 to 0.46 in 2012-13) for females age 21 to 25. Similarly to males of the same age group, reconvictions for females aged 26 to 30 have been fluctuating over the past 10 years. However, unlike reconvictions for males, reconvictions for females aged 31 to 40, and females over 40, have generally remained level over the past 10 years.

4.14 There is also a difference in the age group with the highest levels of reconvictions for females compared to males. In 2012-13, females aged 26 to 30 had the highest average number of convictions per offender (0.58), the 21 to 25 and 31 to 40 age groups have the next highest (both 0.46). Unlike males where the under 21 age group was the highest of the age groups, the under 21 age group of females had the second lowest average number of reconvictions (0.41). The over 40 female age group, like its male counterpart, had the lowest number (0.29) (Table 5 and Chart 4).

Chart 3: Average number of reconvictions per offender, males by age: 1997-98 to 2012-13 cohorts

Chart 4: Average number of reconvictions per offender, females by age: 1997-98 to 2012-13 cohorts

Index crime

4.15 An "index crime" is the crime which resulted in an "index conviction". The "index conviction" is the reference conviction which is determined by either: (a) the estimated release date for a custodial sentence imposed for the conviction, or (b) the sentence date for non-custodial sentences imposed for the conviction. Whichever conviction has the earliest of these dates in a given financial year is defined as the index conviction (see Annex Table A1 and Annex A5 for definitions).

4.16 Offenders who were convicted for lower level index crimes, which tend to be committed in higher volumes, are more likely to be reconvicted than those who commit more serious crimes. Offenders with an index crime of dishonesty, e.g. shoplifting (see Annex Table A2 for crime groupings), have the highest average number of reconvictions and reconviction rate of any of the types of index crimes (Chart 5 and Table 6). For the 2012-13 cohort, the average number of reconvictions for offenders who were convicted of crimes of dishonesty was 0.90, and the reconviction rate was 41.3 per cent.

4.17 Offenders in the 2012-13 cohort who had an index crime of a sexual crime had the lowest average number of reconvictions and the lowest reconviction rate of any of the types of index crime. The average number of reconvictions per offender was 0.17 and the reconviction rate was 12.2 per cent (Chart 5 and Table 6). The reconviction rates and average number of reconvictions per offender for an index sexual crime are both lower in 2012-13 than they were in 2011-12, whereas both measures of reconvictions had been increasing for this index crime between 2009-10 to 2011-12. The earlier rise in the numbers may in part be explained by a widening of the definition of rape in the new Sexual Offences (Scotland) Act 2009, which came into force in December 2010, and by increased reporting in the wake of high-profile cases. Also, as these averages are based on small numbers of offenders, it may have just been due to a slight fluctuation in the numbers that may occur occasionally.

4.18 Offenders from the 2012-13 cohort who had index crimes other than sexual crimes or crimes of dishonesty had an average number of reconvictions between 0.33 and 0.49. The reconviction rates were between 22.0 and 30.3 per cent (Chart 5 and Table 6).

4.19 Table 7^[2] shows the types of crimes that offenders in the 2012-13 cohort were reconvicted for, by the index crime of the offenders. Overall, more offenders were reconvicted for breach of peace than any other type of crime (9.9 per cent of all offenders), and fewer offenders were reconvicted for a sexual crime than any other type of crime (0.2 per cent of all offenders).

4.20 Table 7 also shows that for those offenders with index crimes of violent crimes, crimes of dishonesty, drug offences, or breach of the peace; the majority of those reconvicted were for the same type of crime as their index crime. However, for those convicted of sexual crimes, the majority of those reconvicted were for other crimes or offences. For those convicted of criminal damage it was breach of peace, and for those convicted of other crimes and offences it was also breach of peace. Even for index crimes where the majority of those offenders reconvicted were for the same crime as the index crime, there were some offenders who were reconvicted for different crimes to their index crimes. This suggests that offenders don't necessarily specialise on a particular type of crime.

Chart 5: Average number of reconvictions per offender, by index crime: 1997-98 to 2012-13 cohorts

Index disposal^[3]

4.21 An index disposal is the sentence received for an index conviction (see Annex Table A1 and Annex A5 for definitions). A disposal may affect the reconviction rates, but different disposals are given for different types of offending behaviour, which are also likely to affect reconviction rates. There has been some evidence of a decline in the average number of reconvictions per offender across all types of disposals since 2003-04.

4.22 Offenders given a Drug Treatment or Testing Order (DTTO) have the highest average number of reconvictions and the highest reconviction rate compared to the other disposals (Table 8 and Chart 6). The number of offenders who received a DTTO in the 2012-13 cohort was 316, the average number of reconvictions per offender was 1.46 for this cohort, and the reconviction rate was 62.0 per cent.

4.23 Over time there has been a large decline in the average number of reconvictions for offenders who are given a DTTO. These orders were first introduced on a pilot basis in Glasgow and Fife in 1999, and were subsequently rolled out across the whole of Scotland in phases, concluding with Argyll and Bute in 2006. In the past 10 years the average number of reconvictions per offender for DTTOs decreased by three quarters of an offence (0.75) per offender, on average, from 2.21 in 2003-04 to 1.46 in 2012-13. There has also been a decline in reconviction rates for those given DTTOs in the past 10 years. The reconviction rate for 2012-13 was 62.0 per cent, which is 17.1 percentage points lower than the rate of 79.1 per cent in 2003-04.

4.24 Those offenders released from a custodial sentence in the 2012-13 cohort had a higher reconviction rate and average number of reconvictions than offenders given any other disposal except a DTTO. The reconviction rate for offenders released from custody in the 2012-13 cohort was 43.3 per cent and the average number of reconvictions per offender was 0.87.

4.25 Community Payback Orders (CPOs) were introduced by the Criminal Justice and Licensing (Scotland) Act 2010 and came into effect from 1 February 2011. The CPO replaces provisions for Community Service Orders (CSO), Probation Orders (PO) and Supervised Attendance Orders (SAO) - the "legacy orders" - for any offences committed after this commencement date. As a result, the legacy orders are now mainly being used in cases which have taken longer to progress from the offence being committed to sentencing in court. This may bias comparisons with other types of disposal. In line with previous bulletins, SAOs are still grouped under "other", due to the small numbers issued.

4.26 There has been a transition period between the phasing out of the legacy orders and the establishment of CPOs between 2010-11 up to the most recent cohort 2012-13, due to the different disposals being given for offences committed before or after the 1^st February 2011. The first cohort of offenders with an index disposal of a CPO in 2010-11 was therefore very small as they had to commit a crime and also be convicted between 1 February and 31 March 2011. As CPOs have become established, the number of offenders of an index disposal of a CPO increased from 178 in 2010-11 to 9,511 in 2012-13, whereas those with an index disposal of a legacy order decreased from 8,264 to 638 in the same period.

4.27 During the transition period from legacy orders to CPOs between 2010-11 and the most recent cohort of 2012-13, there were changes in the characteristics of offenders that were given these disposal types. Therefore caution is needed when comparing changes between the two disposal types during the transition period. Annex D details how three offender characteristics (number of previous convictions, gender and age) changed for CPOs and legacy orders during the transition period. Changes in offender characteristics are also likely to be responsible for the decreases in reconvictions of CPOs and legacy orders during the transition period, as both disposals showed an increase in the proportion of groups of offenders that typically have lower reconviction rates.

4.28 The 9,511 offenders with an index disposal of a CPO in 2012-13 had a reconviction rate of 32.1 per cent, which is 1.6 percentage points lower than the reconviction rate (33.7 per cent) of the legacy orders in 2009-10 before CPOs were introduced. The average number of reconvictions per offender for CPOs of 0.55 in 2012-13 was 11 per cent lower than the figure of 0.62 for the legacy orders in 2009-10.

4.29 Between 2010-11 and 2012-13 the average number of reconvictions per offender for CPOs decreased by 52 per cent from 1.15 to 0.55, and for the legacy orders they decreased by 70 per cent from 0.61 to 0.18. However, the characteristics of those offenders with an index disposal of a CPO in 2012-13 are still different from those given legacy orders in 2009-10 prior to the transition.

4.30 There has been a decline in the average number of reconvictions per offender for those released from custodial sentences (a 22 per cent decrease from 1.11 in 2003-04 to 0.87 in 2012-13), but this is set against a rising prison population during the same period. The complexity in relation to the drivers of the prison population is discussed in detail in the publication Prison statistics and population projections Scotland: 2011-12.

4.31 There has been a continual decrease in the number of individuals who were given a monetary disposal since 2006-07. In 2006-07 there were 28,497 offenders with an index monetary disposal which had dropped substantially to 14,804 in 2012-13. This may in part reflect the impact of Summary Justice Reform which was designed to take less serious cases out of the court system (see Section 5). During this period the average number of reconvictions fell from 0.49 to 0.38, a decrease of 22 per cent.

Chart 6: Average number of reconvictions per offender by index disposal: 1997-98 to 2012-13 cohorts

Sentence length of custodial index conviction

4.32 Offenders who were released from a custodial sentence of 3 months or less have a higher reconviction rate and average number of reconvictions compared to those released from longer custodial sentences (Table 9). Offenders that commit relatively low level crimes but in high volumes are more likely to be reconvicted, and these offenders are more likely to get short custodial sentences. In contrast, longer custodial sentences are given to offenders that commit high level crimes, but these offenders tend to commit these crimes in low volumes, and hence are less likely to be reconvicted. For those released from short sentences of under 3 months, the average number of reconvictions per offender was 1.35 for the 2012-13 cohort, and the reconviction rate was 60.2 per cent. On the other hand, offenders released from sentences of over 4 years had an average number of reconvictions of 0.11 and a reconviction rate of 10.1 per cent in 2012-13.

Conviction history prior to index conviction

4.33 Conviction history is a strong predictor for the likelihood of reconviction, as reconviction rates increase with increasing numbers of previous reconvictions. Offenders with more than 10 previous convictions in the past 10 years have the highest reconviction rates, whereas offenders with no previous convictions in the past 10 years have the lowest reconviction rates. This pattern holds true even when age, sex, or disposal (all of which have an association with the likelihood of reconviction) are taken into account (Table 10^[4])

Two year rates

4.34 Historically the reconviction rates in Scotland have been reported with a two year follow-up period. From the 2009-10 cohort bulletin, the focus has been mainly on a follow-up period of one year rather than two years as, in general, the one year rate tracks the two year rate and has the benefit of being more timely.

4.35 When reconvictions are measured using a two year follow up period there has been a decline in the reconviction rate and in the average number of reconvictions per offender since 2005-06 (Table 12). For the 2005-06 cohort, the average number of reconvictions per offender was 1.13 and the reconviction rate was 44.8 per cent, whereas for the most recent cohort of 2011-12, these were 0.98 and 40.6 per cent, respectively. Overall, there has been a 13 per cent reduction of 0.15 reconvictions per offender on average, between 2005-06 and 2011-12, and a decrease in the reconviction rate by 4.2 percentage points.